NFL Best Bets for Week 1: Expert Picks & Predictions

The first games of an NFL season are often tricky to handicap as past performance doesn’t necessarily impact a new year, but my NFL best bets for Week 1 have identified four lines that have value.

After fading the public was successful in the season opener in the Patriots-Seahawks tilt, I call for two of the week’s least bet underdogs to cover the spread. I also add my two favorite totals (one game total and one team total) to my NFL Week 1 predictions while banking on certain offenses to start slow.

🏈 NFL best bets & expert picks: Week 1

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 1 based on the latest NFL odds.

Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: +3.6 units

💰 Best NFL bets this week

Buccaneers +3.5 (-105 via FanDuel)

Cincinnati is 6-9 in September since 2022, and has not finished the month over .500 at any point during that span. Its defense is a big reason for its slow starts, especially of late, as it allowed 29.0 points per game in September in 2024 and 31.2 point per game in the first month last year.

Conversely, Baker Mayfield started hot last year before trailing off late. He went 6-2 as a starter over the first nine weeks, while leading four game-winning drives. He also threw 13 touchdowns (nine of which were at least 20 yards), and committed just three turnovers. 

I’d pass on this number at anything +3 or lower, but this is an automatic play on a division favorite when getting a field goal and the hook.

Panthers +3.5 (-120 via bet365)

This is a game where the public is looking at the Bears, who earned the NFC’s No. 2 seed last year, as a team on the rise, while the Panthers were given a participation trophy for earning a playoff berth merely by winning a bad NFC South.

I’m not underselling Carolina’s improvements over the last two seasons, especially on defense. The Panthers went from allowing 31.4 points and 404 yards per game in 2024 to 22.4 points and 327 yards in 2025. Bears quarterback Caleb Williams also struggled out of the game with a 4-3 record and 55 Total QBR through seven games last year, while the Bears defense as a whole ranked 29th and 31st in pressure rate and Pass Rush Win Rate on the season, respectively.

Falcons-Steelers Under 42.5 (-110 via bet365)

The news of Aaron Rodgers returning to Pittsburgh for another season likely simultaneously excited some of the fan base, but also put a ceiling on how high its offense can climb. Rodgers is coming off a season with a career-low in air yards per attempt (5.8) and the fastest average seconds before passing among 33 qualified quarterbacks (2.59 seconds). In addition, he didn’t push the ball downfield often with 27% of his throws behind the line of scrimmage (most in the NFL). 

Meanwhile, Atlanta’s offense the last two seasons has ranked 27th in passing touchdown rate, 26th in third-down conversions, and 24th in off-target percentage. I don’t see the insertion of Tua Tagovailoa as the starting quarterback being something that remedies those issues right away.

Browns team total Under 15.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

Deshaun Watson is making his first start in 693 days, and is thrown to the fire against a Jaguars defense that allowed 19.8 points per game and 5.0 yards per play in 2025 (both were eighth-fewest). 

Among 50 quarterbacks with 15 starts since Watson joined the Browns in 2022, he ranks 46th in off-target percentage (18%), 48th in yards per attempt (6.0), and 49th in Total QBR (33). 

Watson’s 19:12 touchdown-to-interception ratio in that span isn’t going to cut it against Jacksonville, especially without help from the running game. Quinshon Judkins averaged the fewest yards per rush (3.6) by a rookie with 230-plus attempts since Le’Veon Bell in 2013.