Real Madrid vs. Inter Prediction: Expert Picks & Odds for Tuesday's Champions League Match
It's day one of Matchweek 1, and we're breaking down the first proper clash of giants with our Real Madrid vs. Inter prediction. Despite the fast start in Serie A, a trip to the venue (and city), kickoff time, and the odds for the 3-way moneyline. If applicable, include the aggregate score from the first leg.
β½ Real Madrid vs. Inter predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| π° Best bets | π Best odds | βοΈ Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe 3+ shots on target | +120 via bet365 | 0.75 units to profit 0.9 units |
| Real Madrid 19.5+ shots | +162 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.81 units |
| Lautaro Martinez 4+ shots | +225 via bet365 | 0.25 units to profit 0.56 units |
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π° Real Madrid vs. Inter best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Kylian Mbappe 3+ shots on target (+120)
Inter brings enough defensive quality here that we're getting a good price on Mbappe to hit target three times. This price implies an implied probability of 45.5%, but I project it happening a little over 50% of the time. Mbappe has put 4.5 SOT/90 in early La Liga play, and while I can't get there for him on Tuesday, the No. 9 in this setup should be able to claim plenty of chances.
Inter's back three will be stretched to the outside channels occupied by Vini and Diomande, which should leave gaps for the central attacker to take advantage of. Brahim occupying the space behind Mbappe should also open things up for the striker, as the midfield moving toward handling him will grant Mbappe room, too. Real's attack should take advantage of central entries rather than low-value shots from distance.
Mbappe doesn't need to score here, he just needs Real's attacking waves to get him into central finishing areas.
🆚 Who will win Real Madrid vs. Inter?
I expect Real to control more territory this afternoon and generate the majority of the shots, although those numbers will be closer than the La Liga giant normally deals with. Inter's setup will create dangerous transitional play, but RM's defense is stout and should be able to handle that for the most part.
Score prediction: Real Madrid 2, Inter 1
π₯ More Real Madrid vs. Inter expert picks
Real Madrid Over 19.5 shots (+162)
This is a lot of volume against a team with a defense as stout as Inter's, which has allowed only 11 shots per game in early Serie A action. And while I expect Real to regress from their 20-shot average, I can still get them to 18 or so regularly, which makes this price very attractive.
The 4-2-3-1 vs. 3-5-2 creates a classic width-against-back-three clash, where Cucurella and TAA should be able to push forward into deeper positions. That might result in Inter's midfield five having to collapse toward the box, allowing the host to recycle possession and generate repeated opportunities.
We don't need 20 clean chances, just repeated attempts on goal.
⚽️ Champions League best bets for Matchweek 1
With a full three days of action ahead, I've broken down my favorite markets in my Champions League best bets and as a spoiler: Madrid Over 19.5 shots isn't the only shot market I'm targeting.
Lautaro MartΓnez 4+ shots (+225)
As one of two focal points for the Inter attack, Lautaro has cracked this number in two of Inter's three games, logging six and 10 shots. My projections put him at 3-ish shots regularly, which makes this price incredibly tempting. Inter should be in a position where they're chasing large portions of the game, creating urgency to get shots off.
Inter's 3-5-2 gives Lautaro a partner up front, meaning that Real's stout defense won't be able to hone in on just him. Against aggressive fullbacks, if Inter's wingbacks can stretch Real, half-spaces should open up for Lautaro to exploit.
This one doesn't require sustained possession or pressure, but should be able to get there with transition attacks and smart channel runs against an aggressive backline.
βοΈ Real Madrid vs. Inter key stats
| Real Madrid | Inter | |
|---|---|---|
| Record (domestic) | 3-0-1 (La Liga) | 3-0-0 (Serie A) |
| Home/Away Record (domestic) | 2-0-0 (La Liga) | 1-0-0 (Serie A) |
| Recent form (all comps) | WWWL | WWW |
| Goals for (domestic) | 10 | 8 |
| xG (domestic) | 11.97 | 8.57 |
| Goals against (domestic) | 3 | 3 |
| xGA (domestic) | 3.35 | 4.15 |
| Average possession (domestic) | 57.1% | 66% |
π Real Madrid vs. Inter odds
π Real Madrid vs. Inter projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Real Madrid vs. Inter; subject to change:
| Real Madrid (4-2-3-1) | Inter (3-5-2) |
|---|---|
| Courtois (GK) | Martinez (GK) |
| Cucurella (D) | Bisseck (D) |
| Huijsen (D) | Akanji (D) |
| Konate (D) | Bastoni (D) |
| Alexander-Arnold (D) | Diouf (M) |
| Bellingham (M) | Calhanoglu (M) |
| Valverde (M) | Barella (M) |
| Vini (M/F) | Zielinski (M) |
| Brahim Diaz (M) | Augusto (M) |
| Diomande (M/F) | Martinez (F) |
| Mbappe (F) | Esposito (F) |
πΊ How to watch Real Madrid vs. Inter
- Date: Tuesday, Sept. 8
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Santiago Bernabeu (Madrid)
- TV/Streaming: Paramount+
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