Sweden vs. Italy Prediction & Best Bets Today: Olympic Men's Hockey Preview

Tre Kronor begins its gold medal quest against the host nation. With a massive talent gap on display, we look at why the puck line offers the best value in Milan

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: February 11, 2026 3:19 PM EST • 3 minute read

Pictured: William Nylander of Sweden at practice as we make our best Sweden vs. Italy prediction. Photo by Carl Sandin / BILDBYRÅN

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Host nation Italy will have the home crowd behind them today in Milan, but they face an uphill battle as their 2026 Men's Olympic Hockey tournament begins. Sweden is a prohibitive -10000 betting favorite, so my Sweden vs. Italy prediction will have to look far behind the moneyline to find value.

All eyes will be on the Swedish lineup when they take the ice ahead of the 3:10 p.m. ET puck drop, airing on USA Network. After a maintenance day yesterday, William Nylander returned to the ice for the morning skate, although his status remains up in the air, and Filip Gustavsson was the first off the ice, suggesting he'll get the nod between the pipes. My picks also include emerging star Lucas Raymond, as I examine how Sweden's depth is set to overwhelm them as they look to open with a win that lives up to their billing as a medal contender.

🏒 Sweden vs. Italy prediction: Olympic men's hockey

Our expert Olympic hockey picks are based on the latest betting odds at the best sports betting sites.

Bet type	Bet	Best odds	Confidence	Unit size
Puck line bet	Sweden -5.5	+110 via BetMGM	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐	2u
Total	Over 6.5	-130 via BetMGM	⭐⭐⭐⭐	1u
Player prop	Lucas Raymond Over 1.5 points	-130 via FanDuel	⭐⭐⭐⭐	1u

💰 Sweden vs. Italy best bet: Sweden -5.5 (+110)

This is easily my best edge of the day, with a massive quality discrepancy between the teams on paper. That will manifest on the ice, with Sweden winning comfortably, probably by seven goals.

While Sweden doesn't have a ton of puritan snipers, it has a strong collective that will wear down an inferior Italian team with no NHL experience. I am concerned Filip Gustavsson might allow one goal due to a disproportionately light workload.

It's a quintessential mismatch, and I'm surprised to see the plus-money odds, which is why it's a 5-star play that I'm putting two units on.

Score prediction: Sweden 7, Italy 1

🔥 Best Sweden vs. Italy prop bet: Lucas Raymond Over 1.5 points (-130)

If you're Swedish or a Red Wings fan, everyone loves Raymond.

Lucas Raymond leads the Detroit Red Wings with 60 points in 56 games, and he was a monster for Tre Kronor at last year's World Championships, where he scored 11 points in 10 games.

The odds are admittedly short. I'm okay with that in the opener, though, as I'd rather sacrifice some profit for a higher probability. I wouldn't play this bet beyond -140.

💡 How many Italy players are NHLers?

Italy has no NHL players on the roster.

🇸🇪 Is William Nylander playing in today's game?

William Nylander didn't attend practice due to "maintenance," with the Toronto Maple Leafs star feeling soreness. He returned to action in the NHL on Jan. 31 after suffering a groin injury on Jan. 15.

We're still waiting for confirmation on whether he'll play. However, if I were a betting man, which, obviously, I am, I'd expect him to sit this one out. There's no reason to risk him in a game of this nature.

⏱️ Ice time

If Nylander sits, we should see additional ice time for Jesper Bratt or Filip Forsberg. That kind of depth is why the puck line should be a safe play even if Nylander sits.

However, the Swede skated this morning and he may be able to suit up after all.

🤔 How I'm capping Sweden vs. Italy

With no previous games to go on, I'm keying on a few areas:

Italy has no NHL experience and a roster comprised of players who are markedly inferior to Sweden's stacked team
Sweden has arguably the best goaltender in the tournament (Filip Gustavsson). Hopefully, he doesn't let complacency set in
Sweden has one of the best defenses
Italy's three goaltenders (Damian Clara, Davide Fadani, Gianluca Vallini) play domestically in Sweden, Switzerland, and Italy, respectively
Clara, Italy's presumed starter, is the team's lone NHL prospect. At 21, he’s the youngest goaltender on the team. While he has the most promise, starting against Sweden would present a stiff challenge

If you're wondering how to bet on the men's Olympic hockey tournament, our Dustin Saracini has you covered.

📺 How to watch Sweden vs. Italy

Date: Wednesday, Feb. 11
Puck drop: 3:25 p.m. ET
Location: Santagiulia Arena (Milan, Italy)
TV: USA Network

💡Olympic hockey expert picks

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Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, specializes in writing about the NFL, hockey, and soccer, focusing on player props, game predictions, and futures plays. Most often utilizing FanDuel and bet365, the latter of which usually provides better early odds, he looks for a perfect-storm combo of in-form players who fare historically well against the opponent in question. He has contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, The Hockey Writers, The Hockey News, The Calgary Herald, and other publications. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a bachelor's degree in journalism from Griffith University.