Tua Tagovailoa NFL Player Props, Odds for Wild Card Weekend: Predictions for Dolphins vs. Chiefs

Can Tua Tagovailoa prevail over the Kansas City Chiefs? We look at that and more in our Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop picks.

Sean Tomlinson

Last Updated: January 13, 2024 7:29 PM EST • 6 minute read

Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa makes his playoff debut on Saturday against the Kansas City Chiefs, and our Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds from our best sports betting apps examine whether the Dolphins passer can prevail in frigid conditions on the road.

The Miami Dolphins (11-6) essentially tripped and fell into the postseason after looking like one of the best teams in the NFL early in the year, losing three of their final five games ahead of Saturday's playoff opener against the Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) on NFL Wild Card Weekend.

That disastrous spell for Miami to close the regular season featured a 56-19 beatdown by the Baltimore Ravens and a 21-14 defeat in Week 18 that earned the Buffalo Bills the AFC East title. Now the Dolphins need to survive the hostile playoff environment of Arrowhead Stadium, with weather possibly complicating matters after the region was blanketed in snow on Wednesday.

Can Miami's Tua Tagovailoa rise above a slump for both himself and his team and navigate possibly frigid and blustery conditions in his first playoff start?

To accompany our Dolphins-Chiefs player prop picks and Dolphins-Chiefs prediction, here are our best Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop predictions for the Dolphins-Chiefs Wild Card Weekend matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop predictions for Wild Card Weekend

Tua Tagovailoa Over 229.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tua Tagovailoa to throw an interception (-127 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tua Tagovailoa Over 20.5 completions (-122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Tua Tagovailoa player props

Tua Tagovailoa Over 229.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Yes, wind wise the weather could resemble the day Santa needed to call upon Rudolph.

Wind is the weather element that can often impact a game most significantly, especially on the passing side. And the forecast is calling for 14-mph winds on Saturday night in Kansas City, plunging the temperature into the long johns required territory of -27 celsius with the wind chill.

But while that could massively influence the outcome of this game, at what point are we overreacting and setting prop totals too low?

For Tagovailoa and his passing yardage, that point is the number many of our best sportsbooks are putting out.

Tagovailoa may have stumbled toward the end of the season, as did his entire offense. But he's still coming off a campaign when he led the league in passing yards (4,624) while averaging 8.3 per throw to finish second among regular starters.

He benefits from playing often under the sunny skies of Miami, but Tagovailoa's yardage production didn't slip in a meaningful way away from home in 2023-24. He averaged 271.1 passing yards per contest at home and 270.8 as the visitor.

There's plenty of room for his yardage to fall from that high perch due to the weather while still staying above a low number. And the very likely return of Jaylon Waddle after practicing all week, albeit in a limited capacity, is also a major factor in that effort.

Projections are widely forecasting a passing evening well below Tagovailoa's standards, but one that still cruises past this total. Notably, NumberFire sits at 249.3 yards.

Caesars is alone among our best live betting sites while offering this total at 232.5 yards, and FanDuel sits at 231.5. There's unison at 229.5 elsewhere, but bet365 sits on an island with its -110 price. DraftKings and BetMGM are offering -115.

Visit our Google News page and click "Follow" (⭐) for the latest odds, picks and news!

Caesars boost for Dolphins vs. Chiefs

Caesars is boosting the odds for Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill to each have 50+ receiving yards on Saturday night from -120 to +140!

Offer is available everywhere Caesars operates with a max bet of $10.

Tua Tagovailoa to throw an interception (-127 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is another price worth pouncing on now with Caesars offering outlier odds.

All of our other best sports betting sites sit at least -130, with DraftKings (-135) and BetMGM (-133) a decent distance off from how the prop is trading at Caesars. Pinnacle, which boasts one of the most respected trading teams in the industry, is featuring the Over on 0.5 interceptions for Tagovailoa at -136.

The shorter prices more closely reflect the likelihood of Tagovailoa chucking at least one pick amid the difficult weather conditions. The average of four projection models currently sits at 0.9 interceptions for the signal-caller.

Tagovailoa can accumulate yardage, but still suffer a misstep while manage his way through the wind gusts. Even if the conditions aren't as bad as forecasted, Tagovailoa has been more generous to opposing defenses lately. He finished tied for fourth leaguewide while throwing 14 interceptions, and four have come over his past two games

Tua Tagovailoa Over 20.5 completions (-122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Again surely with the weather in mind, most of our best live betting sites are sitting at 21.5 for Tagovailoa's completions total. The plus odds tied to those numbers are tempting while reaching as high as +110 through Caesars. But the total falls a little too close to projections showing Tagovailoa only narrowly eclipsing the Over on 21.5.

So swallow the juice and still take the reasonable payout while trusting a standout passer to clear another low bar, and one he sailed past often while finishing fourth leaguewide in completions during the regular season.

The Dolphins enter the contest as 4.5-point underdogs, leading to the strong possibility they'll face a negative game script, and Tagovailoa's passing volume will then remain high enough despite the weather.

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Tua Tagovailoa player prop picks made Thursday at 1:49 p.m. ET.

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Written by:
Sean Tomlinson

Sean Tomlinson has been in the sports media wilderness since 2009, and he joined Sportsbook Review in 2021. His work has been referenced in The New York Times and Forbes. He's also made appearances on The Fan 590 and TSN 1050. Sean is a regular bettor who places bets daily while using a handful of books. Most frequently, he uses FanDuel and bet365 due to the quality experience on those apps. While he'll often take an analytical approach, Sean enjoys the fun, recreational side of betting too, and embraces alternative markets on events like the Westminster Dog Show or Eurovision, or the many novelty props tied annually to the Super Bowl, for example. Beyond sports, Sean is also interested in the betting markets tied to politics, and especially those connected to American elections. He sees betting as a way to explore and engage in a deeper way, and takes that same view to his work. He plays poker periodically too, and is an avid fantasy sports player. Sean also previously spent time with Bleacher Report and theScore, all after earning his media studies degree from the University of Guelph-Humber.