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Dolphins vs. Chiefs Prediction, Pick & Odds: Wild Card Weekend - Saturday

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: January 13, 2024 7:32 PM EST • 3 min 31 sec read.

Mecole Hardman Jr. #12 of the Kansas City Chiefs runs with the ball as we make our Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction
Mecole Hardman Jr. #12 of the Kansas City Chiefs runs with the ball against the Los Angeles Chargers at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on October 22, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images via AFP.

The Miami Dolphins visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday in a frigid first-round matchup as we make our best Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction for Saturday of Wild Card Weekend based on the best NFL odds.

After a torrid start to the 2023-24 NFL season, the Miami Dolphins (11-6) saw their AFC East title hopes dashed in Week 18 at the hands of the rival Buffalo Bills. They could see their season end, too, in a tough matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) on Saturday as part of NFL Wild Card Weekend.

The Dolphins would have hosted the Bills in a Week 18 rematch with a win, but they instead travel to Kansas City to face the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs. Miami will also have to contend with a thunderous Arrowhead Stadium crowd and temperatures that are expected to feel like -36.  

The Chiefs secured a victory over the Los Angeles Chargers to end their regular season despite key offensive skill-position players sitting out with the AFC West title already secured. Entering this matchup well-rested and with momentum fueling them, the Chiefs pose a formidable challenge.

Will the Dolphins emerge victorious in this crucial moment, or will the Chiefs move one step closer to a consecutive championship?

To accompany our Dolphins vs. Chiefs player props and our Tua Tagovailoa NFL player props and as part of our NFL Predictions for Wild Card Weekend, here is our best Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Dolphins vs. Chiefs predictions for Wild Card Weekend

Mecole Hardman Under 10.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

It was the Mecole Hardman show in Week 18 with all of the Chiefs' starters resting for the playoffs. He racked up six catches on 11 targets for 77 receiving yards against the Chargers. 

Now, it's entirely possible Hardman earned more looks with that impressive performance. But with Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice set to return, Hardman making any sort of real impact is unlikely.

The projections are a bit all over the place for Hardman, as is the case with many involved in this game due to the uncertainty tied to the health of various Dolphins players. However, Hardman's average receiving yards projection is 10.85 across three models. If we run that number against bet365's -110 odds on Under 10.5 yards, we're getting a little better than 20% positive expected value on this bet.

Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, is featuring Under 9.5 at -124. It opened at 10.5 with the Under at -120 and moved down a yard after the Under steamed to -132.

With both a projection showing +EV and a sharp book seeing action on the Under and moving the line, this looks like a good bet for Saturday's game.

Caesars boost for Dolphins vs. Chiefs

Caesars is boosting the odds for Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill to each have 50+ receiving yards on Saturday night from -120 to +140!

Offer is available everywhere Caesars operates with a max bet of $10.

First-half Over 21.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

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Dolphins vs. Chiefs best odds

DraftKings (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
21.522.5N/A21.521.5
(-110)(-110)N/A(-110)(-120)

As I mentioned in my Browns vs. Texans prediction, there's not as much value in odds shopping for these game-related markets as there is for player props. However, as we can see by our odds table above, two of our best live betting sites are offering either a higher total or pricing the Over at shorter odds than we're getting at DraftKings.

This reiterates the point that the further you dive - from moneyline, spread, and total bets, to half- and team-specific props, or all the way down to player props - the more inefficiencies you'll find in the markets. The benefit of the former is that they're available immediately, so if you're looking for early action, they're your best bet (pun intended, of course).

For the best price on this pick, be sure to use our exclusive DraftKings promo code or Caesars promo code: SBRBONUS1000!

Dolphins vs. Chiefs odds

Dolphins vs. Chiefs odds analysis

This line opened at Chiefs -3.5 and has remained there at all of our sites with the best sportsbook promos excluding a brief spell during which DraftKings moved Kansas City to a 4-point favorite. Early action on the spread is completely split.

As for the total, it's been moving aggressively in the early stages of the week. It opened anywhere from 44 to 45 and has bounced around throughout Monday, reaching a low of 42.5 and climbing back to 45 for brief spells. Sharp action has followed the same pattern, as Pinnacle featured a total of 43 for roughly 12 hours before the Over was smashed to -119.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs game info

  • When: Saturday, Jan. 13 at 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
  • How to watch: Peacock
  • Weather: 9 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 15-mph winds

Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction made Monday at 3 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan
Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He's been a Boston Red Sox fan for over 20 years and a Liverpool supporter for nearly a decade. He's probably watching, talking about, or thinking about sports while you read this.