Dolphins vs. Chiefs NFL Player Props, Odds: Predictions for Wild Card Weekend

Our Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL player props for Saturday's Wild Card Weekend matchup based on the best NFL odds explore what effect the weather might have on individual production this weekend for the game's top playmakers.

While the Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) and the Miami Dolphins (11-6) enter Wild Card Weekend with the same record, these teams are coming off quite different results to conclude the 2023-24 NFL regular season.

The Chiefs prevailed over the Los Angeles Chargers despite using mostly bench players, while the Dolphins dropped a heartbreaker to the Buffalo Bills. Miami also suffered a slew of injuries to key players in the final few weeks, putting even more pressure on their top players to perform in Saturday's wild-card clash.

Those expecting a high-scoring affair on Saturday could be in for a shock, as the forecast predicts frigid temperatures and a chance of snow. From a betting perspective, we need to then gauge the potential offensive production and factor in the adjustments oddsmakers have made due to the weather.

In a much-anticipated postseason showdown exclusively broadcast on Peacock, the question arises: Who will clinch their ticket to the divisional round of the AFC Playoffs?

To go along with our Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction, our Tua Tagovailoa NFL player props, and the rest of our NFL Wild Card Weekend picks, here are our best Dolphins vs. Chiefs NFL player props for Saturday (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Dolphins vs. Chiefs NFL player props: Wild Card Weekend

Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 interceptions (-122 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa will always be scrutinized as long as he continues to have such distinct splits. When things are going well and Tua has time, he's an engineer behind one of the best offenses in football. When teams can get to him with pressure, Tagovailoa struggles a bit more than most.

According to PFF, Tagovailoa has a passer rating of 112.5 when kept clean, which led to him posting the best passing grade in the league this year. But his passing rating plummets to 57.5 when under pressure. He is also third among quarterbacks in the postseason in total turnover-worthy plays.

Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best in the business at drawing up creative blitzes during the playoffs. I think that will keep Tua off balance enough to lead to one errant pass. He is -122 to throw an interception at BetRivers, while the rest of our best sports betting apps are charging at least -130 for the same wager.

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Caesars boost for Dolphins vs. Chiefs

Caesars is boosting the odds for Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill to each have 50+ receiving yards on Saturday night from -120 to +140!

Offer is available everywhere Caesars operates with a max bet of $10.

Patrick Mahomes Under 28.5 rushing yards (-103 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

On some level, I get why the market has pushed Patrick Mahomes' rushing yards prop up to this point after opening at 21.5. It is a playoff game, and the best players will do whatever it takes to win. For Mahomes, that has often meant scrambling for a first down rather than trusting his shaky group of receivers.

But I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that Mahomes cleared this rushing mark in only seven of his 16 regular-season games, a resume that includes 24 yards on six rushing attempts during a 21-14 win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 9. While Mahomes' playoff runs have often been memorable, it's worth noting that he's just 7-7 to this rushing prop in the postseason.

The Dolphins are dealing with plenty of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, particularly after losing edge rusher Bradley Chubb. They likely don't have a pass rush that forces Mahomes to take matters into his own hands on a frigid night in Kansas City. We simply think the market has moved this line too far.

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Mecole Hardman Under 15.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The market has pushed Mecole Hardman's receiving prop up to 15.5, despite our Andrew Brennan making a compelling case for Under 10.5 receiving yards in his Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction earlier this week. Once again, we are fading a potential overreaction by bettors.

Hardman exploded for 77 yards on six catches in a Week 18 performance against the Los Angeles Chargers, though many key starters were out for the Chiefs. It's easy to forget that Hardman logged just five snaps in Week 17, and had single-digit passing snaps in three of his first five games with Kansas City after re-joining the team midseason.

Mahomes might have trust issues with his receivers by now, but I have a difficult time believing he thinks Hardman is the answer in the postseason. With a projection closer to the original line, we would take this current Under at -120 or better.

Dolphins-Chiefs player props made Thursday at 3:05 p.m. ET.

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