Tua Tagovailoa NFL Player Props, Odds Week 14: Predictions for Titans vs. Dolphins on Monday Night Football

Our NFL betting expert expects Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa could struggle on Monday Night Football against the Titans.

Philip Wood

Last Updated: December 11, 2023 4:27 PM EST • 5 minute read

The Miami Dolphins host the Tennessee Titans as part of a double feature on Monday Night Football in Week 14, and we have you covered with our best Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds at our top NFL prop betting sites.

Tua Tagovailoa, the quarterback for the Miami Dolphins, has showcased his dynamism this season, racking up five games with over 300 passing yards in the 2023 NFL season. However, his recent games have seen a decline in passing yards, with only one instance of reaching that mark in the last four games.

Even with a decent ratio of 24 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, Tagovailoa has encountered interceptions in eight games, including three interceptions over the past three weeks combined. Despite this, he remains comfortably placed within the top 10 of NFL MVP odds.

On Monday Night Football, he faces a Tennesee Titans defense that is allowing 230.8 yards per game. Is he set for a big game?

In addition to our Titans vs. Dolphins prediction and Tyreek Hill props, here are our best Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop predictions (MNF odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop predictions for Week 14

Tua Tagovailoa Under 288.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Tua Tagovailoa Under 32.5 pass attempts (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tua Tagovailoa Over 2.5 touchdown passes (+150 via bet365) ⭐⭐

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Tua Tagovailoa player props

Tua Tagovailoa Under 288.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Tagovailoa throws for most of his yards when his team needs him. He’s topped this number just five times this season. Two of those performances came in one-score games, and two came in games that were closer than their final score suggests.

Over the last two weeks, the Dolphins have won by a combined 51 points. Tagovailoa hasn’t thrown for more than 280 yards in either game. What this comes down to is how quickly the Dolphins build their lead. As 13-point favorites, this could get ugly fast. Tagovailoa may throw for over 200 yards in the first half, then stop throwing in the second.

Four of our five best sports betting apps list this prop at 285.5. Though bet365 offers a price of -110 for that total, we’d recommend taking the highest number you can find for -115 or better. At the moment, the highest number is at FanDuel.

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Tua Tagovailoa Under 32.5 pass attempts (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If you think the Dolphins will win this game by more than 20 points, then the under is the only play in this game. The Dolphins have won four games by at least 20 points this season. Tagovailoa hasn’t thrown the ball more than 32 times in any of those games.

But even if this game is closer, Tagovailoa has thrown the ball more than 32 times just four times this year. Two of those performances came in losses, and one came in a seven-point win over the Las Vegas Raiders. With Miami running backs De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert healthy, the Dolphins will build a lead and run all over the Titans in the second half.

This prop is set at 32.5 at four of the five best sportsbooks. Currently, FanDuel is the only one of our NFL prop betting sites that does not offer this prop at all. bet365 is offering the best price, and with the price more expensive than usual, it could be worth waiting to see if FanDuel offers a price of -115 or better. We’d even take this down at 31.5 for a price of +100 or better.

Tua Tagovailoa Over 2.5 touchdown passes (+150 via bet365) ⭐⭐

This is a pure value play. Tagovailoa hasn’t thrown three or more touchdown passes in a game in four weeks. That’s his longest stretch of the season. Over the last four weeks, he’s combined for just six touchdown passes despite his team averaging 28.25 points per game.

The Dolphins are the second-highest-scoring team in football. Though the Titans only allow 1.2 touchdown passes per game, Tagovailoa has had some of his greatest success this season against solid pass defenses. In a game in which the Dolphins will score at least four times, this price makes it worth taking a risk on Tagovailoa throwing at least three touchdowns for the fifth time this year.

The price offered by bet365 is the best at the moment. The lowest price available is +135. If the price continues to drop, then perhaps that signals that Tagovailoa’s price for over 1.5 touchdown passes is getting more reasonable. If you can get that under -200, it could be worth adding to a parlay at one of our NFL prop betting sites.

Tua Tagovailoa player prop picks made 12/8/2023 at 7:20 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Philip Wood

Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.