Texans vs. Patriots Predictions, Picks & Odds: Stroud Makes Preseason Debut

The second pick in this year's NFL draft will make his preseason debut when the Houston Texans face the New England Patriots on Thursday night. Check out our Texans vs. Patriots prediction based on the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites.

The preseason is now in full swing. The Houston Texans and New England Patriots kick off a week in which every NFL team will be in action.

The two AFC teams will be taking opposite approaches, however. New Texans head coach Demeco Ryans appointed rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud as the starter for Thursday's game and backup Davis Mills will follow him.

On the opposite sideline, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick will be working in reverse order from what we would see in the regular season.

“Yeah, we’re still working on that, but the players who are least experienced will get the most playing time,” Belichick said about his quarterback situation for Thursday's game, according to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk.

That means we should see a healthy dose of undrafted free agent Malik Cunningham, 2022 fourth-round pick Bailey Zappe, and very little of projected starter Mac Jones.

Here is our best Texans vs. Patriots prediction for the Week 1 preseason opener (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out Bryce Young vs. C.J. Stroud betting odds and predictions

Texans vs. Patriots prediction

Texans to win by 1-13 points (+145 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

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My preference would be to take the Texans to win the second half, both straight up and against the spread, but only first-half lines are available prior to kickoff of preseason games. So I'll be making my preferred wager via in-game betting at our best live betting sites.

When betting the preseason, much revolves around how quarterbacks will be deployed and how much playing time they'll see. While the Texans owned one of the worst records in football last season, their quarterback room is a strength entering the 2023 preseason.

Stroud will start the game and could see a couple of series playing with the Texans starters. Mills has started 26 games, including 15 last season. He should close out the first half and will likely even play into the third quarter. The Texans' third-stringer is Case Keenum, a 10-year veteran with 64 career starts. 

If Keenum sees a quarter-plus of action against the Patriots' third-stringers, Houston should have a distinct advantage in the second half. New England will likely cede much time to Trace McSorley.

The Texans are favored on the moneyline across all of our best sportsbooks and the quarterback rotation has much to do with that. The Patriots went 1-2 last preseason with Zappe seeing the bulk of the action.

Rather than take Houston anywhere from -162 to -190, I'm heading to FanDuel for their winning margin prop which has the Texans winning by between one and 13 points at +145. Other sportsbooks have the winning margin broken up between 1-6 and 7-12. But I have no problem taking shorter plus-money odds for a wider margin of victory.

While I'm projecting a Texans victory, I don't see Houston winning by two touchdowns or more. Our Shane Jackson shares similar thoughts in his Broncos vs. Cardinals prediction for Friday's marquee preseason game.

Texans vs. Patriots best odds

FanDuel (+145)

FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites providing a one-to-13 winning margin. DraftKings has Texans by 1-6 priced at +310 and BetMGM has the odds set at +300. Texans by 7-12 pays out at +425 at DraftKings and +375 at BetMGM.

If you're looking for even better odds for your Texans vs. Patriots picks, our BetRivers promo code, Caesars promo code, and BetMGM bonus code can help you get the most out of your wagers.

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Texans vs. Patriots odds

Texans vs. Patriots odds analysis

The Texans opened as 1.5-point favorites against the spread, but since the coaches shared their plan of action for the preseason opener, the line has moved to as much as -4.5.

Houston opened as a -125 favorite on the moneyline, but books such as PointsBet now have the Texans at -200.

The total is high for a preseason matchup, it's set at 38 or 38.5 at most sportsbooks.

Texans vs. Patriots game info

• Date: Thursday, Aug. 10, 7 p.m. ET
• TV: NFL Network
• Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
• Weather: 66 degrees, heavy rain and thunderstorm early, 81% chance of precipitation

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