Regular Season Rushing Yards Leader: Take Advantage of a Contract Year for Saquon Barkley

Jonathan Taylor led the NFL in rushing yards for the first time in his career last season with 1,811 yards. In this article, we have compiled a cheat sheet that contains the odds for each leading running back to top the NFL in rushing yards this season, along with our top picks.

There are several of our top-rated sportsbooks that offer futures markets where you can bet on who will lead the NFL in a particular statistical category. To see if there are any significant gaps between the projections and the betting markets, I decided to cross-reference these odds with the projections from Fantasy Pros, ESPN, and Pro Football Focus.

Having compared the player projections with their odds to lead the NFL in rushing yards this season, the following players stand out to me.

2022 Regular Season Rushing Yards Leader Odds

NFL Rushing Yards Leader: Best Bets

• Barkley, RB, New York Giants (+4400 via FanDuel)
• Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns (+1000 via DraftKings)

Barkley, RB, Giants (+4400 via FanDuel)

You can find all the reasons in the world to fade New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley, but when you evaluate him in this market, the numbers speak for themselves. Seeing his +4400 odds while his projected yardage total ranks in the middle of players who are priced at +1700 to win in this market must cause you to re-evaluate the situation surrounding the player.

As Barkley enters his contract year, I believe this is an important piece of the puzzle, as volume is necessary in order to lead the NFL in rushing yards. When you draft a running back as the second overall pick, like the Giants did with Barkley in 2018, there is an element of protecting him and protecting your investment. As Barkley is in the final year of his contract with the Giants, and there is no indication that he will return, I believe the new regime will have no problem giving him a heavy workload.

Barkley rushed for 1,307 yards on 261 attempts in his rookie season. If you take Barkley's rushing average from his first two seasons and multiply it by the number of carries Taylor had last season, that would equal 1,604 yards. As long as Barkley remains healthy, he has the potential to lead the NFL in rushing yards.

With a price of +4400 available, I have no hesitation backing Barkley to lead the NFL in rushing yards this season. This is a great price point, especially with Evan Neal joining the offensive line.

Chubb, RB, Browns (+1000 via FanDuel)

In terms of the favorites on the odds board, Nick Chubb is by far and away my favorite wager. It is also a bet you will want to make before the season begins and not necessarily because Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson won't be available.

During Weeks 1 through 5, Chubb will face an easy rushing schedule, and we should see him take control of this market early on. I'm investing in Chubb immediately, before his odds are slashed by his early season form.

Chubb may also see more volume than we anticipate due to Kareem Hunt's request for a trade. In 2019, when Chubb was the featured back in Freddie Kitchens's offense and Hunt hadn't yet entered the picture, Chubb averaged 18.6 carries per game. After Hunt was fully integrated into the offense, Chubb's carries decreased to 15.8 per game the following season.

Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts (+450 via DraftKings)

Having won the rushing title last season, Taylor will see no shortage of money this year. However, with an opening price of +450, I would be patient with him. Since this is a long season, there will be many ups and downs as well as movement in this market.

The fact that Taylor is a strong contender for this market is not a secret, but when to buy his futures will be of the utmost importance. During Weeks 15 through 18, Taylor will be facing some of the league's worst rush defenses. While waiting until this late in the season to purchase Taylor may not seem ideal, it could be your best opportunity to obtain a much higher price point than the +450 we are seeing in the opening lines.

At +450, I'm fading Taylor, especially in light of Indianapolis Colts head coach Frank Reich's comments regarding a reduction in his workload. In this market, my objective is to buy players who are behind Taylor in the odds, then once his odds lengthen, to buy in on him. For me, this process begins with the addition of Barkley and Chubb to the portfolio prior to the start of the season.

Where to Bet on NFL Futures

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM 

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