What are Patrick Mahomes' MVP Odds Entering NFL Thanksgiving Week 13? Prediction & Analysis
Can Patrick Mahomes still win the NFL MVP award in 2025? The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback was the heavy favorite to win the award just a few weeks ago, but the latest Patrick Mahomes MVP odds have the two-time winner priced as a relative long shot ahead of today's matchup with the Dallas Cowboys.
Below, we break down the latest NFL MVP odds for the Chiefs QB and his chances of winning the award as part of our NFL Thanksgiving predictions ahead of Chiefs vs. Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS).
📊 Patrick Mahomes MVP odds entering Thanksgiving: NFL Week 13
Latest NFL MVP odds from our best NFL betting sites as of Thursday, Nov. 27.
| Sportsbook | Odds | Profit ($10 bet) | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +2500 | $250 | 3.85% |
| FanDuel | +2000 | $200 | 4.76% |
| BetMGM | +2000 | $200 | 4.76% |
| Caesars | +2500 | $250 | 3.85% |
| bet365 | +2200 | $220 | 4.35% |
Mahomes was among the betting favorites when the MVP market opened in February, dealing at +750 odds to win his third MVP trophy. He held steady at that price until the Chiefs' 0-2 start ballooned his odds to the +2000 range, but he was the outright favorite by Week 8 amid a 5-1 run for Kansas City to save its season.
Those good vibes have taken a dramatic turn downward, though, after consecutive losses to the Bills and Broncos and an overtime win over the Colts in the last three games. Mahomes has thrown just one touchdown while tossing a pick in all three of those contests, and his MVP odds have once again jumped into long-shot territory.
Mahomes' best odds to win MVP are +2500 across two of our best NFL prop betting sites, which implies a 3.85% chance that he'll win the award. A $10 bet on Mahomes to win MVP ahead of Chiefs vs. Cowboys would return a $250 profit if he wins the award in February.
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🏆 Can Patrick Mahomes win MVP? Prediction & analysis
If you've followed the NFL at all over the last decade, you've learned to never count out Mahomes in the MVP race. He finished sixth and seventh over the last two seasons, which were easily the worst of his career, and he won it the year before after throwing for nearly 1,500 yards with 11 touchdowns and a 5-0 record over his final five starts.
Could he replicate that magic to close out this season, too? He enters Thanksgiving ranked first in the NFL in passing yards per game (270.6) and third in QBR (71.9), all while navigating injuries and suspensions to his top receivers. And his favorite target Travis Kelce is starting to look right again as the calendar approaches crunch time.
The Chiefs have a roughly 50/50 chance of making the playoffs according to the latest simulations, so the margin for error is slim to none for Mahomes and Co. That also helps his narrative case if they pull it off, making him an intriguing bet to steal this year's MVP award.
💡 More NFL predictions
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and NFL Week 13 predictions for every game this week.
📊 Live NFL MVP odds 2025
See the latest NFL odds and all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 13.
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💡 Chiefs vs. Cowboys picks
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys prediction
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys player props
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys same-game parlay
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys anytime touchdown scorer predictions
- Travis Kelce player props
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys AI predictions
🦃 Thanksgiving expert picks
- Thanksgiving predictions
- Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
- Thanksgiving player props
- First touchdown scorer predictions
- Thanksgiving parlay
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