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NFL Odds & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Week 15

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 18, 2022 4:32 AM EST • 3 min 17 sec read.

NFL best bets
NFL best bets

Entering the most important Sunday of the NFL season to date, we offer up our NFL best bets.

With college football officially in bowl season, the NFL is taking advantage of less competition on Saturdays. The weekend starts with a tripleheader and continues with games that carry massive playoff implications, most notably the Bengals-Buccaneers and Giants-Commanders matchups.

Here are our best bets for the Week 15 NFL slate (odds via BetMGM, PointsBet, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top NFL picks for Week 15.

Week 15 NFL Schedule and Odds

(odds via DraftKings)

Week 15 NFL Best Bets

  • Spread: Bills -7 (-105 via FanDuel)
  • Moneyline: Bengals (-190 via BetMGM)
  • Total: Ravens-Browns Under 38.5 (-115)
  • Upset: Steelers (+135 via DraftKings)

NFL Top Picks for Week 15

Spread: Bills -7 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Entering Week 14, Miami’s defense had struggled with mobile quarterbacks when they're outside the pocket. In those situations, the Dolphins' defense ranked 26th in QBR allowed, 31st in completion percentage, and 19th in yards per dropback. Then Justin Herbert torched them for 367 passing yards, and there aren't many quarterbacks who are more mobile than Josh Allen.

Miami’s defense is likely to be gassed entering this game. It was on the field for 84 plays against San Francisco and 78 against Los Angeles. This contest will also be the Dolphins’ third consecutive road game, and Tua Tagovailoa is coming off an outing when he completed just 35% of his pass attempts (7-for-20) with a clean pocket against the Chargers. This contest has all the makings of a rout. Lastly, Tagovailoa’s three lowest career QBRs came in games when the temperature was below 45 degrees, and Miami lost all three contests.

We were ready to fire on the Bills when the line was at -7.5, so FanDuel’s -7 point spread at -105 odds is music to our ears.

Moneyline: Bengals (-190) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Joe Burrow ranks first in QBR (85) in the fourth quarter of one-score games, first in passing touchdowns (seven), and second in yards per dropback (7.8). Cincinnati has also played complementary football, especially with defensive tackle D.J. Reader healthy. The Bengals rank second in yards per rush allowed (3.4) when Reader is on the field, compared to 24th (4.7) when he's off. 

Cincinnati has won nine of 11 games since an 0-2 start, and the team is averaging 29.8 points per matchup during a five-game winning streak. The Bengals could be without Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, but they should still boast more than enough firepower to beat an offensively challenged Tampa Bay squad that's scored more than 22 points just once all season.

Both BetMGM and PointsBet offer moneyline odds that are $5-8 shorter than their competitors.

Check out our Week 15 NFL picks roundup, odds and lines, and ATS pick power rankings.

Total: Ravens-Browns Under 38.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Ravens' defense ranks first in yards per rush (2.8), first in third-down percentage (29%), and second in points per game (13.4) since the team acquired Roquan Smith in Week 9. Baltimore has held four of its last five opponents to 14 or fewer points, and the team now faces a Browns offense that's scored just one offensive touchdown in two games under Deshaun Watson.

FanDuel is the best sportsbook for Under backers, as it's the only one as high as 38.5.

Check out our Week 15 survivor picks, teaser picks, and trends to know.

Upset: Steelers (+135) ⭐⭐⭐

The Steelers are 55-26-2 straight since drafting T.J. Watt in 2017, and they're just 1-10 SU without him. And while Sam Darnold is one of two quarterbacks in the league with two-plus wins and zero losses, he barely owns a higher completion percentage than the recently waived Baker Mayfield (58.1% compared to 57.8%). His 142 passing yards per game also leaves something to be desired. If a Pittsburgh defense that ranks in the top half of the league against the run can make Carolina one-dimensional, the Steelers could easily pull off a road upset.

The next best number for Pittsburgh to win outright is +130, so DraftKings offers the best value.

NFL Week 15 best bets made on 12/16/22 at 6:26 a.m. ET.

Where to Bet on the NFL

Best NFL Betting Sites:

FanDuel: Get a $1,000 No-Sweat Free Bet | Read our FanDuel Review
Caesars: Earn a Free Bet of Up to $1,250 | Read our Caesars Review
DraftKings: Get a 20% Deposit Match up to $1,000 | Read our DraftKings Review
PointsBet: Earn Five Free Bets of Up to $100 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
BetMGM: Get a Free Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.