NFL Against the Spread Picks Power Rankings: Our Top 10 ATS Bets and Predictions for Week 15
In the last six weeks, the Detroit Lions have been a powerhouse against the spread. Are they likely to make their seventh consecutive appearance in the ATS power rankings? Our NFL power rankings look at our favorite point spreads for Week 15.
In Week 14 of the NFL season, we learned that Brock Purdy is the best quarterback in the NFL and it's not even close. It's totally just a joke, but the hype around the San Francisco 49ers rookie quarterback has everyone back on the Niners' Super Bowl bandwagon. As Purdy leads the way, how do we feel about the Niners' point spread against the Seattle Seahawks this week?
Here are the power rankings of my favorite point-spread picks for Week 15 of the NFL season (odds via our top-rated sportsbooks; lines as of Monday, Dec. 12 at 12:30 p.m. ET).
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top NFL picks for Week 15.
NFL ATS Picks Power Rankings for Week 15
10. Texans +14 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Chargers
Is it possible for the Houston Texans to cover back-to-back spreads as huge underdogs? As 17.5-point underdogs, they almost won outright against the Dallas Cowboys on the road in Week 14. It seems unlikely they will be able to hang against the Kansas City Chiefs, but the Chiefs did allow Russell Wilson to throw for three touchdowns on Sunday.
There’s only a small edge in this number, and that’s going to be a theme throughout this power ranking. When comparing the Week 15 lines with mine, they look pretty solid. In Week 15, I make the Chiefs 13-point favorites over the Texans.
9. Seahawks +3.5 (-114 via FanDuel) vs. 49ers
The Purdy hype train is out of control and all I could think throughout the 49ers' game on Sunday was that Purdy cannot possibly be the quarterback I used to bet on at Iowa State. There has been an overreaction in the market in response to one start in which Purdy was extremely successful. Purdy is still a rookie quarterback and under tremendous pressure for a Super Bowl hopeful, so let's pump the brakes a bit.
I think the spread should be closer to Niners -1 than Niners -3.5, but it’s likely the sportsbooks expect San Francisco to attract a ton of liability after the Seahawks lost at home to the Carolina Panthers. Due to my concern that the Seahawks are regressing faster than the power ratings are adjusting, I rank this at the ninth position in the power rankings even though the difference between my numbers is greater than some of the other spreads.
8. Vikings -4 (-110 via BetMGM) at Colts
I think we can all agree that although the Minnesota Vikings are a good team, they’re not as good as their 10-3 record would suggest. The good news for Vikings fans is that the Indianapolis Colts are fading rapidly under Jeff Saturday, and we’re actually seeing value on the Vikings side of the number, something that hasn't occurred often this season.
In my opinion, the Vikings are 4.5-point favorites over the Colts, which is only a slight difference from what is available in the market, but you're talking about the hook on a key number. As the week progresses, I anticipate that the spread will shift to Vikings -4.5 from Vikings -4.
7. Jets +1 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Lions
Let's pour one out for the Detroit Lions, who made our power rankings for six weeks in a row and cashed the ticket for six weeks in a row. Having finally caught up with the Lions, the market now accurately reflects how they have been playing in the second half of the season.
I make the Jets 2-point favorites over the Lions, which is pretty close to the look-ahead line of Jets -2.5, and the opener following Week 14, which was Jets -1.5.
Note: This pick assumes that Mike White will be the Jets' starting quarterback in Week 15. Before placing this wager, ensure you monitor the progress of his recovery after taking some serious shots to the ribs against the Buffalo Bills.
6. Dolphins +7.5 (-110 via Caesars) at Bills
It’s amazing how quickly our perceptions of a team can change. As people were hyping up the Miami Dolphins as Super Bowl contenders, the narrative has completely shifted after back-to-back losses to the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers. This change in perception is evident from the Dolphins' price in Week 15.
I make the Bills 6.5-point favorites over the Dolphins in Week 15 and even though it’s only a one-point difference between my number and the spread, it's a huge point. The Dolphins are trading at the key number of seven points, and you're also getting the hook on the +7.
PointsBet offers the Dolphins at +7 (+100), but Caesars offers the better line at +7.5 (-110). In the event that the juice moves at Caesars to make the Dolphins +7.5 (-115), and this is a possibility since this is the number we’re seeing at BetMGM, then the +7 (+100) available at PointsBet would be a more advantageous line.
5. Cowboys -4.5 (-110 via Caesars) at Jaguars
Backers of the Cowboys will not be happy with the team's effort in Week 14, where it almost lost to the Texans as a 17.5-point favorite. The Jacksonville Jaguars, on the other hand, went full Jekyll and Hyde by blowing out the Tennessee Titans a week after being destroyed by the Lions.
I think the sportsbooks are expecting some support for the Jaguars, which is why they’ve opened this line a little lower than I had anticipated. I make the Cowboys 6.5-point favorites over the Jaguars on the road, so I'm definitely interested in betting on them at -4.5. DraftKings has moved the line to Cowboys -5, so I wouldn't hesitate to take advantage of this spread.
4. Browns -2.5 (-110 via PointsBet) vs. Ravens
The Cleveland Browns are now 1-1 with quarterback Deshaun Watson, and the offense has not looked any better than it did under Jacoby Brissett. This being said, the Browns are set to benefit from a very fortunate break in the schedule when they play the Baltimore Ravens in Week 15. Tyler Huntley appears to be the probable starting quarterback with Lamar Jackson injured.
I have only a small difference between my numbers and where this matchup between the Browns and Ravens is trading in the market, but it involves key numbers. We can find the Browns trading as 2.5-point favorites at PointsBet, while I make the Browns 3.5-point favorites over the Ravens.
Currently, the Browns have lower juice available via FanDuel where they trade at -3 (-102) but because we’re comparing 2.5-point favorites with 3-point favorites, this half-point is worth significantly more than 8 cents. Therefore, the line of Browns -2.5 (-110) via PointsBet is more advantageous than the spread available at FanDuel.
3. Eagles -8.5 (-107 via PointsBet) at Bears
Honestly, I am surprised that my numbers indicate we have value by backing the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15 rather than the Chicago Bears. It would make sense to assume that the Eagles would be attracting a lot of attention in the betting markets after thrashing their last two opponents, the New York Giants and the Titans.
I make the Eagles 12-point favorites over the Bears, which is quite a difference from what the market is showing. At this time, PointsBet offers the lowest spread and lowest juice on the Eagles at -8.5 and -107, respectively. As a comparison, DraftKings is trading the Eagles at -9 (-110), so you should definitely place your bet at PointsBet.
2. Patriots +1.5 (-118 via FanDuel) at Raiders
Josh McDaniels and the Las Vegas Raiders were defeated by Saturday and the Colts after taking over the team just a few days before and also by Baker Mayfield after he had had 24 hours to learn the Los Angeles Rams' playbook. Is there a reason why the Raiders continue to be overvalued in the market? All season long, the Raiders have been a team to bet against, and it continues in Week 15.
As far as the Raiders-Patriots game is concerned, I make it a pick'em, and I predict the market will move in this direction shortly. I believe you will see the market move immediately to make the Patriots around 2-point favorites if New England wins on Monday Night Football against the Arizona Cardinals.
1. Titans +3 (-107 via PointsBet) at Chargers
Even though the Titans have lost three straight games and were blown out by the Eagles and Jaguars recently, I don't agree with the spread on this game. Mike Vrabel is a head coach we trust, and I believe the Los Angeles Chargers are overvalued in this position following their victory over the Dolphins.
I make the Titans 1-point favorites over the Chargers, yes you heard me correctly, 1-point favorites. The wrong team is favored and you're getting an excellent price from PointsBet that should be purchased immediately.
At Caesars and BetMGM, Titans +3 trades at -120, while at PointsBet it trades at -107, a 13-cent difference. I would recommend placing this bet at PointsBet as soon as possible since this line will move away from Chargers -3 and make the Chargers 2.5-point favorites. Buying the Titans at +3 (-107) gives you a massive edge over where I believe this number will trade later in the week.
Where to Bet on the NFL
NFL against-the-spread picks made 12/12/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
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