Dolphins vs. Bills Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 15: Points Coming in Snowy Buffalo?

The Miami Dolphins hit the highway for a third consecutive game and visit the Buffalo Bills to conclude Saturday’s slate. Read on for our top Dolphins-Bills NFL picks.

The Dolphins (8-5) and Bills (10-3) didn’t deliver on the shootout expectations in their Week 3 meeting this season. But these respective offenses are simply too loaded to endure another final score in the range of that 40-point output — even in snowy conditions on Saturday night.

Here is our best Dolphins vs. Bills NFL pick for Week 15 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top NFL picks for Week 15.  

Dolphins vs. Bills Game Info

Date: Saturday, Dec. 17, 2022, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Weather: 24 degrees, 5% chance of precipitation (snow), 10-mph winds

Dolphins vs. Bills Odds

Dolphins vs. Bills Odds Analysis

The Bills opened as 7.5-point home favorites and have moved to -7 across the board at our top-rated sportsbooks. Buffalo has received 76% of the betting handle through DraftKings Sportsbook, and 54% of wagers are on the Bills, according to our matchup page.

The total opened at 48 and promptly plummeted to 42 earlier this week — and that was before the projections for moderate-to-heavy snowfall in the Orchard Park area for Saturday. But since the snow predictions came into view, we’ve actually seen the total jump back up. It's at a consensus 43.5 as of Saturday afternoon.

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Dolphins vs. Bills Pick

Over 43.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The possibility for winter weather will be a factor that could keep this total fluctuating constantly as the weekend approaches. Because I believe those fluctuations will be overly reactionary relative to the tangible impact the weather ultimately has, that should create value on the Over in a matchup where the total has fallen by several points since opening at 48.

Though the Dolphins were stymied in last Sunday night’s loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, Miami’s previous five games all cleared this number with an average combined point total of 55.2. Buffalo, meanwhile, has had just three games this season fall short of 40 combined points, meaning that it’s been rare for the Bills not to at least flirt with this scoring mark.

Buffalo coming up with only 19 points in a 21-19 loss to Miami in September was an anomaly the moment it happened. The Bills held the ball for more than 40 minutes in the loss as quarterback Josh Allen threw for a whopping 400 yards. Although that didn’t translate into scoring efficiency for the Buffalo offense, its ability to move the ball against the Miami defense in that affair gives me confidence that the Bills can hit the Over on their scoring average (27.2) Saturday.

If the weather forecast clears entirely to push the number back up to its original mark of 48 points, the value dissipates from this Over bet. But where this line currently stands, I’m comfortable pounding the Over in a game that should play out much differently than the first head-to-head meeting.

Dolphins vs. Bills Best Odds

PointsBet (-107)

DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars and PointsBet are in unison at 43.5 as of Saturday afternoon – and as with the majority of main NFL markets, the tie goes to PointsBet and its -107/-107 totals prices.

Dolphins-Bills pick made 12/15/2022 at 6:15 p.m. ET.

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