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Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images via AFP.
Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images via AFP.

In Week 15, the Kansas City Chiefs are heavy favorites to hand the Houston Texans their ninth consecutive defeat. Read on for our Chiefs-Texans picks.

Kansas City (10-3) won for the sixth time in seven games last week in Denver, downing the Broncos 34-28. KC roared out to an early 27-0 lead, but then struggled the rest of the way, scoring just one touchdown in the final 34 minutes of action.

Meanwhile, Houston (1-11-1) nearly pulled off the biggest upset of the season, falling 27-23 at Dallas as 17-point underdogs. Houston led 23-17 going into the fourth quarter before allowing the Cowboys to score the game-winning touchdown with just 41 seconds left on the clock.

Here is our best Chiefs vs. Texans NFL pick for Week 15 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top NFL picks for Week 15.  

Chiefs vs. Texans Game Info

Date: Sunday, Dec. 18, 1 p.m. ET
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Weather: 51F, 0% chance of precipitation, 9 mph winds

Chiefs vs. Texans Odds

Chiefs vs. Texans Odds Analysis

Early betting has predictably been extremely one-sided toward Kansas City, with the Chiefs drawing 83% of the money and 87% of tickets. However, the point spread hasn’t budged since opening at KC -14. If that spread holds or goes up, this week will mark the fourth time in seven games that the Texans are underdogs of two touchdowns or more.

Nearly 60% of total bets have supported the Over, but the big money has been on the Under, accounting for 97% of the handle. The total sat at 49.5 on Friday morning, three points higher than the opener.

Chiefs vs. Texans Pick

Under 49.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Chiefs are saying all the right things this week as a Super Bowl contender facing a one-win team, noting that they can’t afford to overlook a Texans squad that nearly shocked the Cowboys last week. But KC should also be motivated to tighten things up after a sloppy effort last week in Denver, when the team allowed the low-scoring Broncos to nearly come back from a 27-0 deficit.

Although the KC defense needs to get its house together after allowing 27-plus for the third time in four weeks, Patrick Mahomes and the offense also deserve their share of the blame. Mahomes was intercepted three times — the eighth straight game in which KC has committed at least one turnover — and the Chiefs generated just 20 first downs, with one of KC’s touchdowns coming on an interception return.

Expect Kansas City to emphasize playing a cleaner game on offense and taking less chances down the field. That should mean more work for lead running back Isiah Pacheco, who rushed for 70 yards on just 13 attempts against the Broncos, especially if KC is up big in the second half. Speaking of the second half, KC is well-known for taking its foot off the gas once it builds a comfortable lead, making the second-half Under worth considering as well.

On the other side of the ball, there’s not much to fear from a Texans offense that is 30th in points scored and 32nd in total yards. Houston’s dual quarterback system of Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel produced just 213 yards, one touchdown, and one interception through the air last week, while promising young running back Dameon Pierce (who leads all rookies with 939 rushing yards) is dealing with an ankle injury and might not play.

Chiefs vs. Texans Best Odds

DraftKings (-105)

Four of our top five recommended sportsbooks make the total 49.5, with Caesars the lone exception at 49. DraftKings shaded its juice slightly towards the Over, so Under bettors should look to capitalize on the -105 pricing there.

PointsBet is also a good option with reduced -107 juice on sides and totals.

Chiefs-Texans pick made 12/16/2022 at 8:53 a.m. ET.

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