NFL Teaser Picks Week 15: Lions Win When Goff Freezes Over
The Detroit Lions are a surprise road favorite over the New York Jets this week, and the Jets are a top recommendation from our NFL Week 15 teaser picks. Can the Lions cover a boosted spread? Maybe when Jared Goff freezes over.
Teasers allow bettors to move multiple spread and/or totals above or below key numbers and ranges for an increased vig. They’re popular wagers for both professional and recreational bettors, and our teaser betting primer offers additional information and strategies.
Check out our NFL Week 15 odds and lines analysis and our against-the-spread power rankings.
Here are our NFL teaser picks for Week 15 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top NFL picks for Week 15.
Week 15 NFL ATS Teaser Picks
Favorite to tease down: Eagles (-9)
I have this spread power ranked at Philadelphia -11, so it’s a luxury to tease this line down through multiple key numbers to Eagles -3.
The Philadelphia offense has found its form following a mini-midseason hiccup with 123 points over the past three weeks to climb to an NFL-high 29.7 points per game. With the Chicago Bears allowing the fourth-most (25.6), I’m not attributing any meaningful value to their additional time to rest and prepare for Philly during their Week 14 bye.
Chicago has also lost six consecutive games and nine of their past 10. Perhaps, it's being overlooked because quarterback Justin Fields is posting video-game numbers? Regardless, considering the Eagles rank second in defense grade per PFF and seventh in defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders, I don’t see Fields flying against the Eagles on Sunday.
Additionally, I expect the betting community to weigh in on Philly leading into Sunday’s kickoff, which should move this spread closer to my number of Philadelphia -11. You can gain closing line value and stay below the key number of 4 by adding this leg to a teaser now.
Underdog to tease up: Jets (+1)
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff is a road favorite against a talented and well-coached defense in temperatures forcasted near freezing. A chilling thought, I know, and I'm happy to fade Goff in the tough matchup.
Sure, Goff and the Lions are on a fabulous 5-1 run, but all five wins have come against opposing defenses ranking 22nd or lower in defensive DVOA. The New York Jets, in comparison, rank sixth despite facing the second-hardest schedule of opposing offenses. Gang Green also ranks first in defense grade per PFF while allowing the sixth-lowest EPA per play.
A six-point teaser moves this spread to a touchdown margin, and that’s just too many points to spot the Jets against Detroit’s vulnerable defense. The Lions have surrendered the second-most points per game in the league while ranking 24th in defensive DVOA and 25th in defense grade per PFF.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if this spread moved in New York’s direction following the news that the Jets are preparing for quarterback Mike White (ribs) to start against the Lions.
Week 15 NFL O/U Teaser Picks
Total to tease down: Dolphins-Bills (42.5)
The weather forecast is calling for freezing temperatures, gusty winds, and snow Saturday at Highmark Stadium, and this total has plummeted from the 48.5 that was available in look-ahead markets. While I respect the Buffalo Bills’ 3-10 Over/Under record, I still see value in teasing this number down below the key range of 40-41 and into the key range of 36-37.
Simply put, I’m viewing the early betting trends as an overreaction to projected winter conditions that aren’t nearly as severe as the storm that caused the Bills to relocate their Week 11 game to Ford Field. In fact, as long as the wind gusts aren’t prohibitive enough to limit the passing attacks entirely, I’m not concerned about the forecasted amount of snow.
Additionally, each of the past six Miami Dolphins games have gone Over this teased 36.5 total, and this is the final stop during a three-game road trip for Miami. The Dolphins lost the first two contests, whereas the Bills are entering this matchup with four consecutive victories.
I’m anticipating Buffalo having a strong offensive showing. The Bills can clinch a playoff berth with a victory, and they’ll also avenge their Week 3 loss to the Dolphins in Miami. As long as the ‘Fins flirt with their 16.5-point team total, this teaser leg should cash — regardless of the weather conditions.
Total to tease up: Chiefs-Texans (49.5)
The Over has been the popular side in this game, and the total has climbed from the 46.5 that was available in look-ahead markets. A six-point teaser moves it across the key number of 51 and above the key range of 54-55.
With the Houston Texans ranking 30th in points per game (16.2), I view a 10-point jump from the look-ahead number as a ripe opportunity to cash in on an overreaction to the Kansas City Chiefs allowing 28 points to the Denver Broncos last week.
The Chiefs can clinch the AFC West Division with a win, and I expect them to tidy up their defensive game Sunday.
Furthermore, Houston could be without its No. 1 running back, top-two wide receivers, and the Texans might also deploy a quarterback committee with starter Davis Mills splitting snaps with backup Jeff Driskel again in Week 15.
I don’t know about you, but that’s not an offense I’m interested in backing to go Over an inflated total.
Where to Bet on the NFL
Teaser picks made on 12/14/2022 at 2:40 p.m. ET.
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