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Joe Burrow NFL Player Props, Predictions for the AFC Championship: Will Dominance Continue?

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: January 29, 2023 4:17 PM EST • 2 min 35 sec read.

In his career, Joe Burrow has never lost to the Kansas City Chiefs. Can he continue this streak at Burrowhead on Sunday? Read on for our top Joe Burrow NFL player props based on the best NFL odds.

The debate raged throughout the week: Does another win against the Chiefs elevate Burrow's name into the same category as his AFC Championship Game counterpart, Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes? 

Here are our best Joe Burrow NFL player props for the AFC Championship (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Bengals-Chiefs picks, Bengals-Chiefs player prop picks, and Patrick Mahomes NFL player props.

Joe Burrow NFL player props for the AFC Championship

  • Joe Burrow Under 279.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Joe Burrow Over 17.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Joe Burrow Over 2+ passing touchdowns (-180 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Bengals vs. Chiefs odds

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Joe Burrow player props

Joe Burrow Under 279.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Chiefs allow more than 220 opponent passing yards per game but gave up more than 280 passing yards only once since Nov. 1. Granted, Burrow was the one to that did it, but that was during a Cincinnati home game. Will he find the circumstances playing at Arrowhead as favorable?

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In last year’s AFC Championship Game in the same venue, Burrow threw for just 250 yards--enough to beat the Chiefs. A similar script could unfold Sunday, as the Bengals look to win the possession battle by deploying running back Joe Mixon with regularity as they did against the Buffalo Bills last week.

This line seems inflated, considering Burrow hasn’t cleared 250 passing YPG since Christmas Eve. So this isn’t a knock on Burrow--I just don’t know that Cincinnati needs him to be a hero to stay competitive. To get the best value on this prop, target the Under at DraftKings (279.5 yards, -115 odds) rather than FanDuel (277.5 yards, -114).

Joe Burrow Over 17.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Burrow is mobile in the pocket but he’s not the kind of guy you think about when discussing running quarterbacks. Still, he has the knack to do whatever it takes to win in the big moment.

He ran a season-high 11 times (46 yards) in a win over the Chiefs earlier this year. In 2022’s AFC Championship Game: five carries, 25 yards. Last week against Buffalo: six carries, 31 yards. Clearly, he’s got it in his bag and uses it when he needs it.

In what could be another active rushing day for Burrow, the FD line at 17.5 rushing yards is incredibly attractive. At -114 odds, it’s friendlier than the alternate line of 20+ yards (-115) at DK. If the odds inflate beyond or the number reaches 20.5 rushing yards, this play would be four stars.

Joe Burrow 2+ passing touchdowns (-180) ⭐⭐⭐

Given the consistency of Burrow’s passing performances this season, this prop is a viable bankroll builder Sunday.

Five of six games where Burrow threw fewer than two touchdowns this year featured a total below 45. In matchups with a total north of 45 points, Burrow went 8-for-9 on this line. The Chiefs, meanwhile, allowed more passing TDs than any other NFL team this season (33).

The odds aren’t especially attractive, but make sure you maximize your ROI with DraftKings' line (-180) instead of FanDuel's option Over 1.5 passing TDs (-188). If the odds dip to -160 or better, this becomes a four-star play.

Joe Burrow player prop picks made 1/27/2023 at 5:00 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer
Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target NFL player prop markets as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.