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Daniel Jones #8 of the New York Giants scrambles against DeMarcus Lawrence #90 of the Dallas Cowboys during the second quarter in the game at MetLife Stadium on Sept. 26.
Daniel Jones #8 of the New York Giants scrambles against DeMarcus Lawrence #90 of the Dallas Cowboys during the second quarter in the game at MetLife Stadium on Sept. 26. Photo by Elsa/Getty Images via AFP.

The New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys clash on Thanksgiving with the NFC East rivals headed in opposite directions. Can the G-Men turn things around as big road underdogs after dropping two of their last three games? Here are our Giants-Cowboys Thanksgiving Day NFL picks.

After winning six of their first seven games, the Giants have lost two of three and are just a game and a half ahead of Washington for a wild-card spot in the tough NFC. Now they’re big underdogs to a 7-3 Cowboys squad that routed the Minnesota Vikings 40-3 last week.

Here are our Giants-Cowboys picks and predictions for Week 12 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Bills vs. Lions and Patriots vs. Vikings picks, and all the rest of our NFL Thanksgiving picks!

Giants vs. Cowboys Game Info

Date: Thursday, Nov. 24, 4:30 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Weather: Indoors

Giants vs. Cowboys Odds

Giants vs. Cowboys Odds Analysis

A week ago, the Cowboys were just 6.5-point favorites on the lookahead lines, but they’ve been bet all the way up to 9-point favorites following their lopsided win over Minnesota. Currently, 78% of the cash and 63% of the tickets are backing Dallas.

Recent results have also influenced the total, which moved up 1.5 points from the opener after the Cowboys scored 40 last week and the Giants allowed 31. 

Check out our top sites for Maryland sports betting.

Giants vs. Cowboys Picks

Check out our NFL Thanksgiving parlay and prop picks!

Giants vs. Cowboys ATS Pick

Giants +9 (-110) ★★★★

New York has come back to earth following a 6-1 start, losing two of its last three - including an ugly 31-18 loss to the Detroit Lions last week at home. But this is still a ton of points to spot a Giants team that has not only covered five of six games as an underdog this year, it’s won five of those games outright.

Meanwhile, Dallas’ stock may never have been higher than it is right now following an impressive 40-3 rout in Minnesota. This is just the second time this season that the Cowboys have been favored by more than a touchdown, the other coming in late October when Dallas was a 10.5-point favorite over the Chicago Bears.

I’m not willing to buy that the 7-3 Giants are just 1.5 points better than the 3-8 Bears, especially in a bounce-back spot against a Dallas squad that might be feeling a bit too good about itself after last week’s rout. Dallas’ strength on defense is its pass rush, which produced seven sacks against Minnesota, but the Cowboys are vulnerable against the run and that’s New York’s bread and butter. Expect this game to be tight throughout.

Check out our Super Bowl picks!

Giants vs. Cowboys O/U Pick

Under 44.5 (-108) ★★

New York allowed a season-high 31 points last week, but that total was misleading. Giant turnovers led directly to two of Detroit’s four touchdowns, New York gave up just 165 passing yards and the Lions scored TDs on all four of their trips inside the Giants’ red zone.

Prior to that defeat, New York’s defense had held opponents to 23 points or fewer in eight of nine games, going 7-1-1 to the Under during that span. The Giants’ coaching staff should also be more conservative this week on offense, knowing that New York has committed just five turnovers in its seven victories this season and six in its three losses.

Dallas has scored at least 40 points in two of its last three games, but the Cowboys are still a team that is built on defense and running the football. Dallas has gone Over the total once in its last seven home games and just six times in its last 22 overall.

Check out our Giants vs. Cowboys same-game parlay.

Giants vs. Cowboys Prop Pick

Barkley Over 75.5 rushing yards (-115)  ★★★

New York’s star running back has been held to 53 rushing yards or less in two of his last three games, but both of those were losses in which the Giants faced a big deficit and were forced to throw the ball more. Staying committed to the running game is New York’s best chance to keep this game close and keep the ball away from the Dallas offense.

Even though Dallas allowed just 73 rushing yards in last week’s rout over the Vikings, Minnesota running back Dalvin Cook averaged 6.5 yards per carry, and the Cowboys gave up more than 200 rushing yards in each of their previous two games.

Where to Bet on Giants vs. Cowboys Picks

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Giants-Cowboys picks made 11/22/2022 at 9:31 a.m. ET