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Adam Thielen of the Minnesota Vikings celebrates with Kirk Cousins after throwing a touchdown to Justin Jefferson during the second quarter in the game against the Seattle Seahawks at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Adam Thielen of the Minnesota Vikings celebrates with Kirk Cousins after throwing a touchdown to Justin Jefferson during the second quarter in the game against the Seattle Seahawks at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sept. 26, 2021. Photo by David Berding Getty Images via AFP.

The Minnesota Vikings host the New England Patriots in the third of three games on the NFL's Thanksgiving Day slate. Read on for our top Patriots-Vikings NFL picks.

Minnesota enters with an impressive 8-2 record, but the Vikings are also coming off a 40-3 home loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11. The Patriots have strung together three consecutive wins and climbed to No. 1 in defensive DVOA, per Football Outsiders.

The Vikings remain in the driver's seat of the NFC North, and they also boast a 4-1 record at U.S. Bank Stadium this season. New England is 6-4 for the year and in the thick of the playoff race in the competitive AFC. A road upset over the Vikings would go a long way in helping the Pats punch their ticket to the postseason.

Here are our Week 12 picks for the Patriots-Vikings game (odds via BetMGMCaesars Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Bills vs. Lions and Giants vs. Cowboys picks, and all of our NFL Thanksgiving picks.

Patriots vs. Vikings Game Info

Date: Thursday, Nov. 24, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Weather: Indoors

Patriots vs. Vikings Odds

Patriots vs. Vikings Odds Analysis

There hasn’t been significant movement to either the spread or total from the opening numbers at most of our top-rated sportsbooks. However, it is notable that the look-ahead numbers had the Minnesota Vikings trading as a -3.5 favorite and the total listed at 43.5.

Our Patriots-Vikings matchup page has the majority of spread bets coming in on the Vikings, who are drawing 55% of the cash and 70% of the tickets. Meanwhile, the Under is attracting 70% of the cash and 60% of the tickets.

Check out our top sites for Maryland sports betting.

Patriots vs. Vikings Picks

Check out our NFL Thanksgiving parlay and prop picks!

Patriots vs. Vikings ATS Pick

Vikings -2.5 (-105) ★★

With this spread dropping below a field goal, I’m happy to side with the home team on a short week. The Vikings were embarrassed by the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11, and bettors are overreacting by rushing to back the Patriots.

Additionally, the -105 vig on the Vikings -2.5 spread available through Caesars, matches the juice on the Minny -3 spread available via BetMGM. FanDuel also has -118 juice on the Vikings -2.5, so Caesars is the place to bet on the Vikings spread.

The New England defense ranking No. 1 in DVOA dips this pick to a two-star confidence rating, especially following the Cowboys laying out the blueprint for shutting down the Minnesota offense. Still, the look-ahead spread was Vikings -3.5, so a shorter number with a reduced vig has my attention.

Check out our Super Bowl picks!

Patriots vs. Vikings O/U Pick

Under 42.5 (-110) ★★★

This total is hanging above the key range of 40-41, and despite the early action on the Under, BetMGM hasn’t moved off its opening number. 

As noted, the Patriots boast an elite defense, and they also use the sixth-most seconds per play on offense. I anticipate the Pats attempting to slow this game down. The total has gone Under the number in each of the past three New England games, too.

While I’m expecting a bounce-back showing from the Vikings offense, this is another tough test against a well-coached defense that’s surrendered just 23 points across its past three games.

Check out our Patriots vs. Vikings same-game parlay!

Patriots vs. Vikings Prop Pick

Thielen Over 3.5 receptions (+102) ★★★

Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen has cleared this reception total in seven of 10 games this season, and I have him projected for 4.62 receptions against the Patriots on Thursday.

Prior to the Week 11 outlier against the Cowboys, Thielen had garnered at least seven targets in eight consecutive games. Additionally, while the Patriots have been a tough matchup for opposing No. 1 receivers with the fourth-ranked DVOA, New England dips to 20th against No. 2 wideouts. 

I expect the Patriots to focus on slowing down Minnesota wide receiver Justin Jefferson, which will create easier opportunities for quarterback Kirk Cousins to connect with Thielen.

Where to Bet on Patriots vs. Vikings Picks

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Patriots-Vikings picks made 11/22/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.