🏈 NFL Win Total Predictions 2026: Chargers, Bears, Saints Highlight My Best Bets

The 2026 NFL win totals are finally here, making it the perfect time to break down my top Over/Under predictions for the upcoming season. The Chargers, Saints, and Bears stand out as my key bets, with one of these teams earning a three-unit play on my futures card. Let's dig in.

💰 NFL win total predictions: My best bets

NFL win totals odds via DraftKings 

⬇️ NFL win total predictions: Unders

Patriots Under 9.5 wins (+115)

Our first plus-money wager of 2026 focuses on Drake Maye and the New England Patriots, though not for the reasons fans might hope.

While New England is coming off a shocking Super Bowl appearance, they are about to face a massive reality check in the form of a brutal 2026 schedule. After benefiting from the league's easiest strength of schedule in 2025, they now draw a first-place gauntlet. A punishing mid-season stretch against the Bears, Lions, Chiefs, Chargers, Seahawks, and Jaguars will hurt them, making the Under 9.5 wins (+115) a high-value play.

Steelers Under 8.5 wins (-140)

With no clear answer at quarterback (Will Howard isn't the answer), the Steelers appear headed for a difficult season. Facing a gauntlet of a schedule that includes non-divisional matchups against the Broncos, Eagles, Texans, and Jaguars, it’s a stretch to see them reaching six wins, let alone nine. I have them finishing with a dismal 5-12 record.

Jets Under 5.5 wins (-140)

I have the Jets finishing with a dismal 4-13 record in 2026, largely due to a challenging schedule and a defense that has become a league-wide punchline. The decision to retain Aaron Glenn as head coach after a historically inept defensive performance is a massive red flag. Under Glenn's watch, the 2025 Jets became the first team in modern NFL history to go an entire season without recording a single interception. They will be a dumpster fire once again.

Texans Under 9.5 wins (-110)

I am completely sold on the Jacksonville Jaguars as the only reliable force in the AFC South. Meanwhile, the Houston Texans are dominated by headlines questioning C.J. Stroud, whose dramatic fall from grace needs to be studied. Despite the Texans boasting a championship-caliber defense, Stroud's regression has become impossible to ignore, and I am comfortably fading them in 2026.  

Raiders Under 5.5 wins (-140)

This number should realistically be lower than 5.5 wins. Our best NFL betting sites might have gotten this one wrong.  While the Raiders will eventually pull themselves out of the deep hole they've created, 2026 simply isn't that year. This team is going to be hard-pressed to secure even four victories, making six wins look like a total pipe dream.

⬆️ NFL win total predictions: Overs

Jaguars Over 9.5 wins (+100)

One of my favorite plays for the upcoming season is undoubtedly the Jaguars to hit 10 wins. Coming off a dominant 13-win campaign in 2025, I'm genuinely shocked to see even-money value on a team led by Coach of the Year finalist Liam Coen. Under his leadership, Trevor Lawrence finally looked like the generational talent we were promised, and the Duval momentum isn't slowing down. I love these NFL odds.

Dolphins Over 4.5 wins (-110)

While the Dolphins look like a trainwreck on paper, there's enough talent left in the building to scratch out five wins. The quarterback room is currently a black hole, and while fans are praying new head coach Jeff Hafley recruits Malik Willis from Green Bay to ignite the offense, the team is far from empty-handed. With arguably the league's most elite running back leading the charge and a defense that remains competent, they should be able to avoid a total winless collapse. I'm projecting a 5-12 finish for Miami in 2026.

Bears Over 9.5 wins (+100) 

Any lingering bust talk can officially be put to rest. Caleb Williams didn't just meet expectations in 2025 - he shattered them, setting a new Bears franchise record with 3,942 passing yards and 27 touchdowns while leading Chicago to its first NFC North title in seven years.

What truly separated Williams last season was his ice-cold composure when it mattered most. He emerged as "ice man" and clutched up routinely in the fourth quarter when Chicago needed him most. Now, with head coach Ben Johnson returning for the second year of their partnership, this offense has evolved from a project into a powerhouse. 

Chargers Over 10.5 (+110)

This might be my absolute favorite bet on the board for 2026. The Chargers managed to grind out 11 wins last season despite playing with the worst offensive line in football - a unit that was decimated by season-ending injuries to stars like Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater.

Now, with those All-Pro-caliber tackles returning to health and the hire of offensive guru Mike McDaniel as coordinator, Los Angeles is poised for an incredible breakout. Pairing McDaniel's creative, explosive scheme with a talent like Justin Herbert changes the entire dynamic of the AFC West.

Browns Over 6.5 wins (+100)

While this isn't personally on my futures card, it's a fascinating "fun bet" to track before the season kicks off. Between a powerhouse defense anchored by Myles Garrett - the reigning Defensive Player of the Year odds winner and current favorite to repeat - and a full season of Shedeur Sanders under center, the football world will definitely be locked on Cleveland in 2026.

🤔 How I'm handicapping NFL win totals

There are two ways I handicap NFL win totals - strength of schedule and regression analysis. The former is quite easy to understand: you combine the winning percentages of opponents from the previous year to get a baseline understanding of a team's upcoming path. For example: the New England Patriots faced teams with a sub-.400 winning percentage last year, which helped them earn 13 wins on the campaign.

Regression analysis can be more nuanced. Did the team do enough in the offseason to help change their trajectory going into the new season? How many one-score games did a team win or lose last year? How many injuries did a team have to endure? Remember, there can be both positive and negative regression. For example: I'm taking the Chargers' Over 10.5 wins this season as one of my favorite plays due to the positive regression incoming for their offensive line.  

🎟️ Most bet NFL win totals

Here are the most popular win totals, via DraftKings: