Falcons vs. Saints NFL Player Props, Odds: Picks & Predictions

The Saints are clinging to playoff hopes as the Falcons come to town. We dive into the matchup with our Falcons-Saints NFL player prop picks.

Sean Tomlinson

Last Updated: January 7, 2024 12:46 PM EST • 5 minute read

The Atlanta Falcons visit the New Orleans Saints as the two division rivals conclude their regular season, and we're examining the matchup with our Falcons vs. Saints NFL player prop predictions for Week 18 based on the best NFL odds from the best sports betting apps.

New Orleans Saints fans will be holding their breath for much of Sunday when the team squares off against the Atlanta Falcons with its playoff hopes on the line.

It won't be pretty, but someone needs to win the disastrous NFC South. The 8-8 Saints still have a chance to do just that after winning three of their last four games. If the Saints are to capture the division, they need to beat the Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to lose to the woeful Carolina Panthers.

That means motivation won't be an issue in this contest, unlike many games around the NFL amid the chaos that is the final week of the regular season. Consequently, there's player prop value to pounce on now.

To accompany all of our Week 18 NFL predictions and NFL best bets, here are our best Falcons-Saints NFL player prop predictions for Week 18 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Falcons vs. Saints NFL player props: Week 18

Bijan Robinson Over 57.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The path to beating the Saints' defense is clear: run. Run as if your employment depends on it, though Falcons head Arthur Smith is likely doomed regardless of the outcome on Sunday.

The Falcons are ill-suited to pass against nearly anyone while trotting out a bottom-tier passing offense, that is downgraded yet again on Sunday with QB Taylor Heinicke ruled inactive. Desmond Ridder will make his 13th start of the season, but he threw for just 168 yards on 21 attempts against the Saints in Week 12.

However, New Orleans comparably struggles against the run while giving up 122.5 yards per game (20th). The club is one game removed from allowing 104 rushing yards to Kyren Williams of the Los Angeles Rams, and the Panthers' duo of Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders combined for 161 yards in Week 14.

There's a vulnerability to exploit if the game script allows, and Robinson comes in hot while averaging 5.9 yards per carry over Atlanta's past two games. Add it all up, and it's easy to see why projection models widely favor the Over on his yardage total, including NumberFire going considerably beyond the number at 67.4 yards.

Be sure to make this play at bet365. There's nearly a consensus line across our best sportsbooks, but some are juicing it up to almost -120.

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Chris Olave Under 71.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There's often been a disconnect between Derek Carr and, well, pretty much anyone, but especially his top wide receiver Chris Olave.

The wideout has been wildly inconsistent lately, and booming then busting in almost equal measure. He's posted three games with 100-plus receiving yards over his last five contests and two outings with fewer than 30 yards. That includes just 26 yards on three catches against the Buccaneers in Week 17, a team with the league's worst pass defense.

The difficulty level now rises dramatically. The Falcons come with so very many flaws, but that doesn't include pass defense. The team has given up the fourth-fewest yards and receptions to opposing wide receivers in 2023.

Olave did produce 114 yards against the Falcons in Week 13, but duplicating that could prove not easy against a quality pass defense, notably since his quarterback ranks 15th in air yards. The pass-catcher is also widely projected to fall below this number, with NumberFire forecasting 62.4 yards.

Once again, bet365 offers the best value, as most of our other best sports betting sites are pricing this prop at -115.

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Derek Carr Under 240.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Much of the same thinking applies here, though it's magnified given Carr's limitations. He's averaging a pedestrian 7.0 yards per attempt in 2023, down significantly from a peak of 7.9 during the height of his success with the Las Vegas Raiders.

Carr also ranks 18th in pass attempts traveling 20-plus yards through the air. He's not able to stretch the field with consistency, a weakness that won't play well against a defense not allowing much chunk air yardage, and giving up just 200.2 passing yards per game overall.

Stay away from FanDuel here, as its total of 232.5 doesn't align with the rest of our best live betting sites, which are all sitting at 240.5. And yet again, bet365 isn't forcing us to swallow nearly as much juice, with the price reaching -117 through Caesars.

Falcons-Saints player props made Friday at 9:46 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Sean Tomlinson

Sean Tomlinson has been in the sports media wilderness since 2009, and he joined Sportsbook Review in 2021. His work has been referenced in The New York Times and Forbes. He's also made appearances on The Fan 590 and TSN 1050. Sean is a regular bettor who places bets daily while using a handful of books. Most frequently, he uses FanDuel and bet365 due to the quality experience on those apps. While he'll often take an analytical approach, Sean enjoys the fun, recreational side of betting too, and embraces alternative markets on events like the Westminster Dog Show or Eurovision, or the many novelty props tied annually to the Super Bowl, for example. Beyond sports, Sean is also interested in the betting markets tied to politics, and especially those connected to American elections. He sees betting as a way to explore and engage in a deeper way, and takes that same view to his work. He plays poker periodically too, and is an avid fantasy sports player. Sean also previously spent time with Bleacher Report and theScore, all after earning his media studies degree from the University of Guelph-Humber.