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NFL Player Props & Best Bets Week 18: Will Bills Win AFC East?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 7, 2024 3:38 PM EST • 5 min 40 sec read.

NFL best bets
NFL best bets

By the end of the week, the NFL playoff matchups will be known as the regular season comes to a close with a 16-game slate of all divisional games, and we offer our best NFL player props and best bets for Week 18 based on the best NFL odds at the best sports betting apps.

The Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers already clinched the No. 1 seeds in the AFC and NFC, respectively. However, there's still plenty of unknown heading into Week 18, with four divisions up for grabs.

To highlight how crazy the AFC playoff picture is entering this week, the Buffalo Bills would be the No. 2 seed if they beat the Miami Dolphins. However, they'll be out of the playoffs entirely with a loss and wins by both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Jacksonville Jaguars.

In addition to our NFL Week 18 predictions and NFL Week 18 player props, and to go along with our NFL player props and best bets and NFL picks for Week 18 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL best bets: Week 18

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Week 18 NFL schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

NFL player props for Week 18

A.J. Brown anytime touchdown scorer vs. Giants (+110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown was in the news this week, as headlines surfaced that he denied being mad at head coach Nick Sirianni. No matter what Brown may or may not be feeling, it would behoove the Eagles to placate their alleged disgruntled star receiver before the playoffs begin, and we expect Jalen Hurts to force-feed him with targets with fellow receiver DeVonta Smith dealing with a mild ankle sprain.

This is a buy-low spot on Brown, who has 189 receiving yards and zero touchdowns over the last three games. In Weeks 1-12, when Hurts targeted Brown outside the numbers, he had a 61% completion percentage, averaged 10.5 yards per attempt, and posted a 6-2 TD-INT ratio. Since Week 13, those numbers have plummeted to a 41% completion percentage, 5.4 yards per attempt, and a 0-1 TD-INT ratio. However, we are encouraged by a rebound for Brown, facing a New York Giants defense that ranks in the bottom nine of the league in yards allowed to perimeter wide receivers since Week 12.

bet365 is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering anytime touchdown odds for Brown as of this writing, likely because Smith’s availability is up in the air. Thus, shop for the best number if you prefer to wait until closer to kickoff to compare prices at competing shops.

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C.J. Stroud Over 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Colts (+102 via FanDuel)  ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅  

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has already thrown for the fifth-most yards (3,844) ever by a rookie. And while he is coming off a poor performance by his standards (213 passing yards, one touchdown) in his first game back from a concussion last week, we expect him to thrive in this win-and-in matchup against the Indianapolis Colts.

Stroud threw for 384 yards and two touchdowns in just his second NFL start in Week 2 against the Colts. Stroud has the second-highest QBR (72) when facing zone coverage this season and averaged the league's fourth-most yards per dropback (7.5). That is important when facing the Colts, who use zone at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (69%), per ESPN Analytics. Regarding Stroud's potential success in the red zone, he has averaged the longest amount of time per throw in the red zone (3.32 seconds). In comparison, the league average is 2.75 seconds, which speaks to his offensive line's ability to protect him.

FanDuel is our go-to shop for this wager, as it is the only sportsbook offering plus-money odds, while the Over is juiced as high as -115 at bet365.

Editor's note: Get ready for the launch of Vermont sports betting with our best Vermont sportsbook promos, and be sure to download the best Vermont sports betting apps! 21+ and present in VT. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

NFL game picks for Week 18

Bills -1.5 first half spread vs. Dolphins (+100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Bills have more-or-less been in must-win mode to keep their playoff hopes alive for much of the last month, and that sense of urgency has been reflected in their fast starts, winning the first half in each of the previous six games. Thus, getting plus-money odds at FanDuel (this line is juiced as high as -115 at BetRivers) to lay 1.5 points with Buffalo in the first half is well worth the value, as we would only look into laying the points with the favorite for the full game if the spread moved off the key number of three.

Josh Allen is coming off his second-lowest completion percentage and passing yards total this season but will face a Dolphins defense without Bradley Chubb (torn ACL last week), who leads the team with 11.0 sacks and six forced fumbles this season.

Miami’s defensive splits with and without Chubb on the field this season are staggering. Chubb has been on the field for 81% of the plays, and the Dolphins have allowed a 44 Total QBR and gotten pressure on 38% of dropbacks, which would lead all NFL teams in 2023. Conversely, Chubb has been off the field for 19% of all defensive plays, and the Dolphins have allowed a 79 Total QBR and gotten pressure on just 28% of dropbacks. Allen has averaged 341 passing yards per game and has a 10-0 TD-INT ratio in the last three games versus the Dolphins. Add in the fact that he ranks 10th with a 73 QBR when not pressured this season, and we expect him to lead Buffalo to offensive success, especially early.

Falcons +3.5 vs. Saints (-118 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We love to capitalize on the general public’s overreactions to what happened a week prior, and there may be no better instance to do this than in this NFC South tilt. The Falcons are coming off their worst loss of the season (37-17 to the Chicago Bears), while the Saints keep their playoff hopes alive with a 23-13 road win at the division-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers. However, both teams will be plenty motivated as the winner of this game needs Tampa Bay to lose this week to win the division, and despite Atlanta having just +650 odds at DraftKings to be crowned NFC South champions, we expect it to play New Orleans within a field goal.

New Orleans is 9-3 SU against the Falcons, but one of those three losses was in Week 12 (24-15 in Atlanta), and the Saints’ two victories last year were by a combined four points. Thus, the Falcons are 4-1 ATS in the previous five meetings, and the Saints are a great matchup for Atlanta’s bruising running game, as New Orleans ranks in the bottom five in rush defense since Week 12 and the bottom seven in yards after contact per attempt and missed tackles per attempt in that span. 

Falcons backers have plenty of options with how to attack this game, as one can get a line of +3 at +100 odds at Caesars or bet365. On the other hand, one can back Atlanta at +4 for -135 odds at BetMGM, but we have settled on the -118 for +3.5 at DraftKings as it does not break the bank but offers the insurance of catching more than a field goal.

NFL best bets made Thursday at 4:07 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.