Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 17: Can Shorthanded Miami Put Up a Fight?

Get our best Dolphins vs. Patriots NFL odds, picks and predictions for Week 17!

Philip Wood

Last Updated: January 1, 2023 7:45 AM EST • 3 minute read

Teddy Bridgewater will start for the slumping Miami Dolphins in place of QB Tua Tagovailoa for their Week 17 game at the New England Patriots. The AFC East matchup could have significant playoff implications. Here are our Dolphins vs. Patriots NFL picks based on the best odds.

The Dolphins have lost four games in a row, and they will be without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in a critical Week 17 matchup against the Patriots. With a win, the Dolphins would eliminate the Patriots, and they could clinch a playoff spot if the New York Jets lose to the Seattle Seahawks.

Like the Dolphins, the Patriots are also slumping. They have lost four of their last five games, though three of those four contests were to teams that have already clinched playoff spots. Can the Patriots avenge a 20-7 loss at Miami Week 1 and keep their playoff hopes alive?

Here is our best Dolphins vs. Patriots NFL pick for Week 17 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top NFL picks for Week 17.

Dolphins vs. Patriots Game Info

Date: Sunday, Jan. 1, 2023, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Weather: 54 degrees, 16-mph winds, 55% chance of precipitation

Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds

Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds Analysis

In large part due to the injury to Tagovailoa, there has been a lot of line movement in this game. The Dolphins opened as 2-point favorites, but they are underdogs by as much as 3 points as of Friday morning, depending on which sportsbooks you look at. According to Pregame.com, bettors are split, with 59% of the cash backing the Dolphins but 52% of the tickets backing the Patriots.

One area where bettors are not split is the total. Both the cash and tickets are coming in on the Under at 64%, which is now at a consensus line of 41.5. The number opened at 44.

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Dolphins vs. Patriots Pick

Under 41.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Patriots haven’t had a single total listed higher than 47 this season, and yet the Under still cashed in nine of their 15 games so far. In games where the total is set at 41.5 or lower, the Under has hit five out of seven times.

The Dolphins certainly have the offensive weapons for backup QB Teddy Bridgewater to put up some points, but the Patriots have been great defensively this season, allowing just 19.4 points per game.

The Dolphins are a pass-first team. They are averaging 274.9 yards per game through the air and just 95.9 yards per game on the ground. Bridgewater is a reliable backup, but he’s not going to provide the same explosiveness of Tagovailoa.

Finally, during the Dolphins’ four-game losing skid, the offense has scored more than 20 points just once. In the three games this season where Bridgewater or Skylar Thompson led the way for the team, the Dolphins averaged 16 points per game, and they have not eclipsed 20 in a single contest.

Dolphins vs. Patriots Best Odds

Caesars, and PointsBet (-115)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	PointsBet
41	41.5	41	41.5	41.5
-110	-115	-110	-110	-110

Caesars and PointsBet have joined FanDuel with the total listed at 41.5. By posting the line at 41.5. Caesars and PointsBet are both offering at -110, which makes them a better option for the Under since FanDuel's price is also the steepest at -115.

Dolphins vs. Patriots pick made 12/30/2022 at 8:45 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Philip Wood

Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.