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NFL Odds & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Week 17

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 30, 2022 4:20 AM EST • 2 min 64 sec read.

NFL best bets
NFL best bets

Five of the NFL’s 14 playoff spots are up for grabs entering the penultimate week of the regular season. Read on for our NFL best bets of Week 17.

The recent addition of an extra wild-card team in each conference has kept more teams alive heading down the stretch. In the AFC and NFC combined, eight teams have been eliminated from playoff contention entering the week, while 15 are vying for the unclaimed spots.

Here are our best NFL bets for Week 17 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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NFL Schedule and Odds for Week 17

(odds via Caesars)

  • Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
  • Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions (-6)
  • Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5)
  • Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots (-3)
  • Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Giants (-6)
  • New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
  • Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
  • Cleveland Browns vs. Washington Commanders (-2)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans (-4.5)
  • San Francisco 49ers (-10) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
  • New York Jets (-1.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks
  • Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
  • Los Angeles Rams vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
  • Buffalo Bills (-1) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

NFL Best Bets for Week 17

  • Spread: Chiefs -12.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Broncos
  • Spread: Eagles -6.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Saints
  • Upset: Panthers first-half Moneyline (+135 via DraftKings) vs. Buccaneers
  • Total: Dolphins-Patriots Over 41 (-110 via Caesars)

Week 17 NFL Top Picks

Spread: Chiefs -12.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

This pick is not an overreaction to Denver firing head coach Nathaniel Hackett this week.

Entering Week 17, the Chiefs' offense ranked first in points per game (29.6), yards per play (6.5), third-down percentage (51%), total QBR (80), and offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson has a 44% completion percentage on throws 15-plus yards downfield, averaging 3.0 yards per attempt and a 6:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

In addition, Denver has scored an NFL-worst 15.5 points per game and has the worst third-down percentage (28.6%). Thus, its offense cannot keep up with the high-powered Chiefs.

This number is unanimous across all sportsbooks and is up from an opening of -10.5, but it is a play as long as it does not reach the key number of -14.

Spread: Eagles -6.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Regardless of Jalen Hurts’ playing status (he was seen at practice on Thursday), Gardner Minshew did enough against a talented Cowboys defense last week (355 yards, two touchdowns) to inspire confidence. After all, Minshew is surrounded by one of the most talented supporting casts, as the Eagles ranked second in run-block win rate and seventh in pass-block win rate entering Week 17.

Additionally, A.J. Brown ranks as the best receiver in the NFL, according to ESPN Analytics, while teammate Devonta Smith is sixth. Finally, the Eagles' defense has recorded six-plus sacks in four consecutive games, and Philadelphia will be motivated to clinch the NFC’s No. 1 seed this week.

There is not much difference in odds across sportsbooks, but we are avoiding those like FanDuel's, for now, that charge more in juice (-115) to back the favorites.

Upset: Panthers first-half ML(+135) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tampa Bay has been known to be a slow starter this year. Through the first 50 minutes of games, the Buccaneers have averaged 1.4 points per drive, have an 11:9 TD-INT ratio, and have converted 36% of third-down attempts. In the last 10 minutes of games and overtime, the Buccaneers have averaged 2.5 points per drive, have a 10:1 TD-INT ratio, and converted 44% of third downs.

Carolina ran for 320 yards and 7.4 yards per rush against Detroit last week and will use that formula to build a halftime lead this week.

DraftKings offers slightly more value at +135 than its competitors, like FanDuel, which is at +130.

Total: Dolphins-Patriots Over 41 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The news of Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion dropped this number from 43.5, and Caesars is one of the lone sportsbooks offering a number as low as 41 while charging standard juice. However, this line is too low, as Teddy Bridgewater is a more than capable backup, the fifth-most profitable ATS quarterback in the last 20 seasons.

In addition, Miami has cashed the Over in six of eight road games. Entering Week 17, among all its road games, the Dolphins ranked dead-last in points per game allowed, 28th in yards per play, and last in total QBR allowed.

NFL best bets made 12/30/2022 at 7:56 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”