Commanders vs. Eagles Picks, Predictions Week 10: Can Washington Contend with 8-0 Philadelphia?
The undefeated Philadelphia Eagles host the division-rival Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football in Week 10. Here are our top NFL picks for the NFC East Division showdown between the Commanders and Eagles.
The Week 10 slate concludes on Monday Night Football with the Commanders visiting the 8-0 Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field, in Philadelphia, PA. Washington enters the tilt with a 3-0-1 record against the spread through its past four contests, whereas Philadelphia is 5-3 ATS for the season. The total has gone over the number in four of the Eagles' past five contests.
Philadelphia is led by quarterback Jalen Hurts, and his odds to win the NFL MVP Award are as low as +225 via BetMGM. The Eagles are also trading at a consensus +500 to win the 2023 Super Bowl across our top-rated sportsbooks.
Here are our Commanders vs. Eagles picks and predictions for their meeting on Monday Night Football (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our Commanders-Eagles same-game parlay, Monday Night Football prop picks, and Jalen Hurts props.
Commanders vs. Eagles Game Info
Date: Monday, Nov. 14, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Weather: 40 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 3-mph N-NW winds
Commanders vs. Eagles Odds
Commanders vs. Eagles Odds Analysis
The look-ahead spread and total were Philadelphia -10.5 and 45, respectively, via DraftKings Sportsbook. There wasn’t any movement to the opening spread, but it has since moved to Philly -11. It's also worth noting FanDuel was on an island and offering an outlier Eagles -10.5 juiced to -115 as of Monday morning.
The total opened at 44.5 last week and has since dropped to 43.5 at most shops. BetMGM is still hanging a total of 44, and the sportsbook had received 68% of tickets and 62% of the betting handle on the Under ahead of Sunday’s games. The Commanders had also received 61% of tickets and 53% of the handle from BetMGM’s released betting insights.
Commanders vs. Eagles Picks
Commanders vs. Eagles ATS Pick
Commanders +11 (-107) ★★★
With the Commanders trading above the key number of 10 in a division matchup, I consider them a hold-your-nose selection with multiple avenues to cover the spread. Washington can either hang with the Eagles for 60 minutes or pull off the back-door cover.
There’s been slight improvement from the Commanders on offense since turning to quarterback Taylor Heinicke. Washington ranks 22nd in offensive DVOA per Football Outsiders and 24th in both EPA per play and success rate over the past three weeks after posting respective ranks of 29th, 28th, and 29th through the first six games of the campaign.
Washington also brings a respectable defense into the matchup, and the Commanders are especially strong against the rush. The Commanders ranked third in rush defense DVOA while allowing the second-lowest EPA per rush entering Week 10. Add a 10th-ranked pass rush per Pro Football Focus, and Washington allowing just 17 points per game across its past five games, and the 11-point head start is cushy.
Commanders vs. Eagles O/U Pick
Over 43.5 (-110) ★★★
This total falls in the key range of 43-44, and as noted, it has also dropped from the look-ahead 45 number. After pumping the tires of the Washington defense, I do view this as an uptick in class, and I don’t anticipate the Commanders completely slowing down the Philadelphia attack.
The Eagles paced the NFL in offensive DVOA and ranked third in EPA per play after nine weeks of action. Philly is also healthy and rested after playing the Thursday Night Football game in Week 9.
Washington putting points on the board will be the key to the Over hitting, and the Commanders have shown improvement on that side of the ball with Heinicke under center. Additionally, Philadelphia has faced the fourth-easiest schedule of opposing offenses by DVOA, so the Eagles’ elite defensive numbers are a little deceiving.
Commanders vs. Eagles Prop Pick
Each team to score 1+ TD & 1+ FG in each half (+2600) ★★
This is a recreational recommendation. The Eagles haven’t scored a touchdown and connected on a field goal in each half all season, and the Commanders achieved the feat only during their Week 7 win over the Green Bay Packers.
Still, I love the long odds and entertainment value this prebuilt parlay available via FanDuel provides. Additionally, after looking back through the boxscores, I was surprised there was just the single occurrence between the two teams across 17 combined games.
The longer the Commanders can hang with the Eagles and keep this division game competitive, the more I like the chances of this bet hitting even with the implied probability of the +2600 odds of just 3.7%. The Eagles connected on the requirement in six of 17 games last season, and while the Commanders did so only once, I still consider the odds longer than they should be.
Where to Bet on Commanders vs. Eagles Picks
Commanders-Eagles picks made 11/14/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
