How to Bet the Buffalo Bills Ahead of 'Hard Knocks' Debut in 2025

The NFL's annual behind-the-scenes look at training camp will feature the Bills on "Hard Knocks" with Buffalo appearing on the HBO miniseries for the first time.

It's a spotlight that comes with the Bills still rising, though the clear narrative will be their ability to finally ascend to the next rung and knock off the Kansas City Chiefs, a fellow AFC juggernaut. The Bills have won the AFC East in five straight seasons and advanced to the AFC Championship Game twice during that span.

Now with the Bills entering the season ranked in the top three by the latest Super Bowl odds, the "Hard Knocks" attention could impact some of the ways to bet on them before the public rallies behind the AFC juggernauts this summer.

🦬 How to bet on Buffalo Bills ahead of 'Hard Knocks'

The Bills have won 13 games in three of their last five seasons. They've also taken at least one playoff game during each postseason throughout that run.

There was a time in the not-so-distant past when that alone would have resulted in even more broken tables around Buffalo. Heck, merely making the playoffs seemed like a mountainous task for a long while, as the Bills went 17 years without a berth.

But expectations are deservedly higher now. We see that in NFL win total odds with the Bills one of four teams sitting at 11.5. And we see it in the NFL MVP odds with voter fatigue seemingly not a concern for megastar quarterback Josh Allen, who's slotted second after being given the honor for the first time last year.

With all that in mind, here are a few futures bets and NFL picks to consider ahead of the Bills appearing on "Hard Knocks" this summer:

🏈 Best team prop bet: Bills to win the AFC

✅ Best odds: +375 via BetMGM ($10 to win $37.50)  

Up To $1,500 First Bet

Bonus bets will expire in 7 days. One new customer offer only. Additional terms and conditions apply.

Claim $1,500

Yes, the athletically terrifying Baltimore Ravens are still ever-present atop the AFC, with some of our best NFL betting sites listing them as the favorites to emerge from the conference.

But the Bills are also featured as the favorite through DraftKings and Caesars, and the +320 price through the latter makes the +375 odds at BetMGM for Buffalo look like a steal to pounce on now. The Bills' division - and therefore much of their schedule - remains mediocre with the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins projected for 8.5 wins, and the lowly Jets down at 5.5.

The Bills also feature the easiest schedule of any playoff contender by our NFL Fatigue Index, traveling the second-fewest miles (4,696) while leaving their time zone just once all year. That should make it even easier to waltz to another division title and top-four seed in the AFC playoffs.

The Chiefs linger as the Bills' ultimate playoff bogeyman after ousting the Bills in three of the past five years, including twice during the AFC Championship Game, with the most recent a heart-wrenching 32-29 Buffalo loss last season.

But regression could be coming after 11 of the Chiefs' 14 regular-season wins last year came by one score, including five by a field goal or less.

🏈 Best player prop bet: Josh Allen Under 3749.5 passing yards

✅ Best odds: -110 via bet365 ($10 to win $9.09)  

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose*

*Deposit required. Mobile app only. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Claim Now

Allen is never short on throwing heroics. We see him heave balls deep downfield weekly and jam throws through portholes, and last year he did it to the tune of an 8.33 adjusted yards per attempt.

That was the second-highest single-season mark of his seven-year career, and notably higher than Allen's 7.04 the previous season. But the focus with Allen in this Bills offense passing-wise is about that quality, and much less so the quantity.

A run-oriented team only needed Allen to attempt 483 passes last year, which was close to a career single-season low - and far below his previous marks of 579, 567, and 646 throws from the prior three seasons.

Combine that with the Bills being ahead so often and sporting the league's third-best point differential at plus-157, and the opportunity to accumulate chunks of passing yards simply wasn't there. Allen and the Bills are well-positioned to continue with much of the same approach heading into this season after he fell below this total with 3,731 passing yards last campaign.

🏈 Week 1 pick: Bills-Ravens Over 51.5

✅ Best odds: -110 via DraftKings ($10 to win $9.09)  

Bet $5, Win $300 + $1K Deposit Bonus

Terms and conditions apply.

Claim $300

If the Bills' inclusion in "Hard Knocks" is making your itch to get in on the NFL Week 1 odds even worse as the anticipation of another clash with the Ravens grows, then look to the total.

The two teams combined for 52 points during the Bills' divisional-round triumph this past January. The next tilt between the AFC powerhouses will feature the two offenses that sat second and third leaguewide in points per game last year, with the Bills at 30.9 and the Ravens just a few ticks behind at 30.5. 

There's plenty of potential for fireworks then, especially if the Ravens' pass defense remains at or near its level last season, which ended in swinging-door fashion with Baltimore allowing the second-most yards per game (244.1).

📖 NFL 'Hard Knocks' history: Does the show help or hurt?

The answer is a rather unsatisfying shoulder shrug.

There are rules restricting which teams are even eligible to be on "Hard Knocks" every season, which can immediately limit the potential for a winning campaign. That was especially true until recently, as the league removed the opt-out ability for teams that had qualified for the playoffs the previous campaign.

The result of that now defunct option was plenty of middling records from "Hard Knocks" teams, and few have been truly disastrous or wildly successful. That could change fast now with the inclusion of playoff teams, with the Bills perhaps best-positioned to give the show its first Super Bowl winner.

Here's a look at the previous "Hard Knocks" participants and how they performed since the show's HBO debut in 2001:

A few observations on what became of the "Hard Knocks" participants once the cameras left training camp:

• Despite constant murmuring about a "Hard Knocks" curse, the records are almost evenly split and tilt only slightly toward mediocrity, with nine of the 20 teams featured so far finishing above .500
• Seven of those 11 losing teams dropped 10-plus games, while seven others reached the playoffs following an appearance on "Hard Knocks"
• The 2010 New York Jets have gone the furthest and appeared in the AFC Championship Game, perhaps due to regular snacking
• The Cowboys, Bengals, Jets, and Rams have appeared multiple times, with Dallas unsurprisingly leading that charge after being featured three times

🔮 2025 NFL season previews & predictions

Following the NFL schedule release, we broke down the odds for every game and asked AI to predict every game (and more). Below are our team-by-team schedules, odds, and predictions for Week 1 through Week 18.

• NFL watchability index
• NFL schedule release: 15 best games to bet now
• NFL Week 1 odds and schedule
• NFL International schedule and odds
• NFL Thanksgiving schedule and odds
• NFL Christmas schedule and odds
• NFL Week 18 odds and schedule
• Best revenge games for the 2025-26 season

💵 Best NFL betting sites

Want to bet on the NFL regular season? Check out the best NFL betting sites and best sportsbook promos for upcoming games:

• FanDuel Promo Code
• DraftKings Promo Code
• Hard Rock Bet Promo Code

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.