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Buccaneers vs. Falcons Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for TNF Week 5

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 30, 2024 8:54 AM EDT • 3 min 20 sec read.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield hands off to running back Bucky Irving as we look at the Buccaneers vs. Falcons TNF early lean & picks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield hands off to running back Bucky Irving. Photo by: Nathan Ray Seebeck/Imagn Images.

First place is on the line in this NFC South Thursday Night Football matchup as the Atlanta Falcons host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

  • The Buccaneers and Falcons have split their two regular season meetings in each of the last two seasons
  • The winner of this matchup will receive a big boost to their odds to win the NFC South
  • Atlanta won last week without scoring an offensive touchdown in Week 4, notching a defensive and a special teams touchdown

My Buccaneers vs. Falcons early picks and odds kick off our NFL Week 5 predictions and call for the Thursday Night Football odds favorite to cover the spread as long as the line stays under the key number.

My early Buccaneers vs. Falcons prediction: Falcons -2.5

NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Falcons -2.5

Best odds: -112 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.83%

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Home teams always have an advantage on a short week, but Atlanta has an even bigger advantage in this matchup with this being its third consecutive home game.

Tampa Bay is being a bit overvalued after its win over the Philadelphia Eagles, as its defense allowed a season-low 227 yards of total offense. While that in isolation is impressive, it should also be noted that the Eagles were without their top two wide receivers (A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith) and were not equipped to come back from a 24-0 deficit before they even converted a first down.

UPDATE: I've since turned source with my Buccaneers vs. Falcons prediction for TNF.

Don't miss our guide for how to bet on NFL or this week's best sportsbook promos.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons live odds

See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Week 5 game.

Moneyline

  • Falcons best odds: -142 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 58.68%
  • Buccaneers best odds: +135 via Caesars | Implied probability: 42.55%

There is a big 19-cent gap between DraftKings’ -142 moneyline odds to back the Falcons and the -161 odds at Caesars. 

Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins has historically struggled in primetime, and those trends, coupled with Tampa Bay’s big win over Philadelphia, should mean the line should go in support of the underdogs. Cousins is 59-33-2 SU in his career in the 1 p.m. E.T. time slot or earlier but has won just 20 of his 59 starts in later time slots.

Spread

  • Falcons best odds: -2.5 (-112) via DraftKings
  • Buccaneers best odds: +3 (-115) via Caesars

DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering a line of -2.5, while all others are firmly on the key number of three. However, given that all the +3s have a juice of -115 or higher (FanDuel’s price is --120), it signals that the line is close to moving off the key number toward the underdogs as long as there is the betting support to warrant that. It would also make sense for the line to dip to -2.5, as that was precisely where the line closed in last week’s Falcons-Saints matchup, and New Orleans and Tampa Bay are viewed as evenly matched.

Considering Cousins is 1-10 ATS in his last 11 indoor games, it makes even more sense for the spread to move towards the Buccaneers.

Over/Under

  • Over best odds: 42.5 (-110) via DraftKings
  • Under best odds: 43.5 (-110) via Caesars

Not only is the point spread nearly exactly identical to last week’s Falcons-Saints game, but that game also had a total of 42.5 points. However, those two NFC South rivals combined for 50 points while Tampa Bay scored 33 of its own last week. Thus, DraftKings is likely to have its total bet up to match the rest of the top sports betting sites at 43.5, and that might not even be the floor for the total before kickoff.

None of the three previous meetings between these teams had a total higher than 41.5, but the Over is 2-1 in that span.

How to watch Buccaneers vs. Falcons

  • When: Thursday, Oct. 3
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
  • How to watch: Prime Video
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Falcons -2.5 (-112 via DraftKings)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”