Broncos vs. Chiefs Early Odds & Prediction: NFL Week 17 Christmas Day Expert Picks

The defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs welcome the upstart Denver Broncos to Arrowhead Stadium on Christmas Day.

Gary Pearson

Last updated: May 13, 2025 9:20 AM EDT • 2 min read

Broncos vs. Chiefs Early Odds & Prediction: NFL Week 17 Expert Picks for Christmas Day — Pictured: Patrick Mahomes against the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LIX. Photo by Mark J. Rebilas via Imagn Images.

The only thing better than watching the NFL is watching the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs go head-to-head at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Christmas Day (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video).

The defending AFC West champions are the early 4.5-point favorites at our best sports betting sites, and our Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction and NFL picks expect it to resemble last season's tight meeting in Kansas City.

💰 Broncos vs. Chiefs expert picks for Christmas Day

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✅ Against the spread pick: Broncos +4.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Moneyline pick: Chiefs ML (-198 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Under 44.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🏈 Week 17 prediction & best bet

🎯 Score prediction: Chiefs 24, Broncos 20

The Broncos surprised many people last season, finishing with a 12-5 ATS record and 6-3 on enemy turf. Sean Payton exceeded expectations in his second season at the helm, eliciting the best from rookie quarterback Bo Nix, an Offensive Rookie of the Year odds contender for much of the season.

The Broncos, last season's third-best scoring defense, were a blocked field goal away from ruining the Chiefs' unbeaten home record. While I'm not convinced they'll have that same golden opportunity to escape with a Yuletide win, I expect them to keep things tight.

The Chiefs were 7-9-1 ATS last season, with 10 games decided by one score or less. Four of their eight home games were decided by four points or fewer.

The Chiefs have won nine straight AFC West crowns, and unless the Los Angeles Chargers can surprise the masses and dethrone them, they should win another.

While not even the world's best fortune teller can definitively say what the division will look like in Week 17, there's a good chance the Chiefs will already have it wrapped up. That would also favor a Broncos cover.

DraftKings offers the most value of our best NFL betting sites, where a winning $10 bet will profit $9.09.

✅ Best bet: Broncos +4.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

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Written By:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.