NFL Betting Trends to Know for Week 10: Can Eagles Break Streak of 8-0 Teams Not Winning the Super Bowl?
The Philadelphia Eagles are the league's only remaining unbeaten team, and the club is one of just two one-loss squads entering Week 10. But what does starting 8-0 mean for their prospects of winning a Super Bowl? We dive into that and more in our NFL trends to know ahead of Week 10.
One of the most significant challenges for novice NFL bettors is sifting through the countless trends prior to each game to determine the relevance or potential impact. For example, head-to-head data between two teams dating back to the 1970s provide little insight since none of the players taking the field were born at that time. We aim to give you the most relevant information and trends to use when making your weekly wagers.
Here are our top four NFL trends to know for Week 10 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).
Check out our ATS pick rankings, upset picks, and odds and lines for Week 10.
Top NFL Betting Trends for Week 10
Eagles +500 to win the Super Bowl
None of the previous 11 teams to start 8-0 won the Super Bowl that year.
Perhaps oddsmakers are on to this trend of recent 8-0 teams failing to win the Super Bowl, as Philadelphia’s +500 odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy are tied with Kansas City while trailing the Buffalo Bills (+250).
Recent 8-0 teams haven't ridden their strong starts to a Super Bowl victory. Worse, the last two teams to start 8-0 (2019 New England Patriots, 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers) failed to even win a playoff game. However, the two teams before that (2018 Los Angeles Rams, 2019 San Franciso 49ers) at least made it to the Super Bowl before losing to the AFC champion.
The Eagles became the 29th team during the Super Bowl era to start a season 8-0. Of the previous 28, 15 became the conference champion, while eight won the Super Bowl.
For a more immediate trend on the Eagles, Philadelphia was one of three double-digit favorites in Week 9, and none covered the spread (including Buffalo and the Kansas City Chiefs). The Eagles kicked off last week as 13-point favorites, the largest road favorite for a Thursday Night Football game.
It was also the fourth time during the Super Bowl era that Philadelphia has been a double-digit favorite. The team is now 2-2 straight up and 0-4 against the spread in those contests. The Eagles are 10.5-point favorites against the Commanders in Week 10.
Bills to score first vs. Vikings (OFF), Buccaneers team total vs. Seahawks (23.5)
The Buffalo Bills scoring first has happened in 21 of their last 27 games, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ team total is the least profitable of all team totals across their last nine games.
The Bills jumped out to a 7-0 lead over the New York Jets in Week 9, cashing their prop to score first for the 21st time over the club's previous 27 games dating back to 2021. That wager has resulted in +12.7 units for bettors. The Bills are -7.5 point home favorites against the Vikings in Week 10, meaning bettors will likely need to pay a heavy juice while backing Buffalo to score first again.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay was given a team total of 22.5 points against Los Angeles this past Sunday. After only scoring 16 points, the Bucs cashed the Under on their team total for the eighth time over the team's previous nine games. The Buccaneers have been the most profitable team total Under squad during that span.
Check out our Falcons-Panthers picks.
Broncos-Titans Over 39, Colts-Raiders Over 42.5, Giants-Texans Over 40, Cardinals-Rams Over 43.5
The Over is 18-16 (52.9%) when the home team is favored and the total is lower than 44 points.
The Over in these games was 18-14 (56.3%) entering Week 9, but the Unders cashed in the Colts-Patriots and Rams-Buccaneers matchups.
For the Colts, the Under is now 8-0 during their previous eight road games after the Week 9 26-3 loss to the Patriots, an affair that stayed way below the 40-point total. Additionally, the Colts are now 0-9 ATS during the first half in their last nine games after trailing New England 13-0 at halftime.
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