UConn vs. USC Prediction & Odds: Bueckers, Watkins Clash in Women's Elite Eight

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: April 1, 2024 7:17 PM EDT • 2 min 45 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Paige Bueckers and JuJu Watkins will be in the spotlight Monday when the USC Trojans face the UConn Huskies in the Elite Eight of the women's NCAA Tournament, as we offer our best UConn vs. USC prediction and best bet based on the latest Women's March Madness odds.

Despite all eyes being on Caitlin Clark and the national title rematch between Iowa and LSU, the stars will be out in full force on Monday when the top-seeded USC Trojans (29-5) take on the No. 3 seed UConn Huskies (32-5) in the Elite Eight at the Moda Center in Portland, Ore.

UConn enters Monday's contest as a 3.5-point favorite across our best sports betting sites, with tipoff scheduled for 9:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Paige Bueckers reasserted her case as the best player in women's basketball with a methodical performance in the Sweet 16, scoring a game-high 24 points in 40 minutes to propel UConn back to the Elite Eight. Similarly, USC star JuJu Watkins carried the Trojans with 30 points to survive Baylor and set up Monday's star-studded showdown.

As part of our March Madness predictions along with our LSU vs. Iowa prediction, here are our best UConn vs. USC prediction (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

UConn (3) vs. USC (1) game info

When: Monday, April 1
Tip-off: 9:15 p.m. ET
Where: Moda Center, Portland, Ore.
How to watch: ESPN
Favorite: UConn -3.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

UConn vs. USC odds

Teams	Moneyline	Spread	Total
UConn	-175	-3.5 (-110)	Over: 135.5
USC	+140	+3.5 (-110)	Under: 135.5

UConn vs. USC prediction

USC +3.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM

When the bracket was first released, I circled (and bet) USC as the most undervalued team in the field with 50/1 odds to win it all. That price has since been slashed, but it feels like the market continues to sleep on the Trojans.

This team was on the ropes against a capable Baylor squad on Saturday, but Watkins scored nine of her team's final 10 points to break a 64-64 tie and guide her team to victory. Really, though, it was USC's deep rotation that helped weather the storm and catalyze an 8-0 run to turn the tides in the fourth quarter.

That's a major advantage against UConn, which played just six players in Saturday's win over Duke - with four of them logging 38 to 40 minutes. That's been an issue all tournament for the Huskies, who rely on Bueckers and their suffocating defense to win with an injury-shortened rotation.

I'm not so sure that'll work on two days' rest against a USC roster with more depth, size, and ways to win on Monday. This game could come down to Watkins' ability to get to the free-throw line, as she did 13 times in the Sweet 16. If she can get UConn's starters into foul trouble early on, the Huskies will be hard-pressed to keep pace down the stretch.

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

UConn vs. USC spread & Over/Under analysis

UConn may be the higher seed in Monday's matchup, but the Huskies are still 3.5-point favorites over USC across all of our best sportsbooks ahead of the Elite Eight. That's much lower than what most projection models have for this final result, but those systems may be underrating the fatigue and late-game personnel issues that Connecticut faces with a six-player rotation.

The total is trading at a consensus 135.5 across our best sports betting apps, which is one of the lower numbers of this tournament and nearly 35 points lower than the total for Monday's first game between LSU and Iowa. That's a credit to this stellar UConn defense, though with Bueckers and Watkins on the court, we could see some fireworks on display.

UConn-USC prediction made Monday at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Here are our best March Madness betting sites:

Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)

Written By:
C Jackson Cowart

C Jackson Cowart is a publishing editor and lead writer for Sportsbook Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, "C-Jax" has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels' championship run through the NCAA men's basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he's played a key role in Sportsbook Review's coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he's cashed some big bets over the years -- including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) -- he's still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed "process over results" bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He's written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn't forgiven his "inside source" for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.