🏀 Troy vs. Nebraska Prediction & Parlay Today: March Madness Round 1 Picks & Odds
No. 4 Nebraska enters its first-round March Madness matchup as a 13.5-point favorite over No. 13 Troy, with tipoff scheduled for 12:40 p.m. ET on Thursday at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, airing on truTV.
My best Troy vs. Nebraska prediction backs the Trojans to cover the big number, leaning on their tournament experience and elite 3-point defense to keep this one closer than the spread suggests. I'm also fading Pryce Sandfort from deep in what looks like a tough matchup for Nebraska's sharpshooter as part of our March Madness predictions.
π Troy vs. Nebraska picks & odds: NCAA First Round (March 19)
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy +13.5 | -110 via FanDuel | 1u -> 0.91u | ββββ |
| Over 137.5 | -105 via BetMGM | 0.5u -> 0.48u | ββ |
| Pryce Sandfort Under 3.5 made 3-pointers | -145 via bet365 | 1u -> 0.69u | ββββ |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.08 units
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π° Troy vs. Nebraska prediction & best bet
Troy +13.5 (-110)
Troy returned 44% of the minutes from a team that lost by 19 in the NCAA Tournament to Kentucky. But those Wildcats fared much better than this yearβs Nebraska squad in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency (10th vs. 55th) and 3-point shooting (24th vs. 103rd).
The Trojans have played with fire, as their seven game-tying or go-ahead baskets in the final 30 seconds of games were a D-I high. While they didnβt vault to the top of the Sun Belt until the very last day, they should prove a tough out as a battle-tested team from a competitive conference.
Score prediction: Nebraska 75 - Troy 65
💡 Situational ATS trends for Troy vs. Nebraska
- The Trojans have been an underdog of 12.5+ points twice this season and covered the spread in both of those games (2-0 ATS)
- Nebraska: 17-15 ATS | 11-21 O/U
- KenProm ranking: No. 14 (+26.16 AdjEM)
- Troy: 17-14 ATS | 14-17 O/U
- KenPom ranking: No. 143 (+1.72AdjEM)
π₯ Best Troy vs. Nebraska player prop bet
Pryce Sandfort Under 3.5 made 3-pointers (-145)
Troy played a quietly strong non-conference schedule, including SoCon champion Furman, San Diego State, USC, MAC runner-up Toledo, and UAB. None of those teams made 10 or more threes against the Trojans, and that includes a double-overtime game against the Aztecs and a triple overtime game against USC.
Troy ranks 43rd in defending the 3-point line, limiting opponents to just 29.4% of their scoring from beyond the arc. However, the Trojans are far more vulnerable inside, allowing the 60th-highest share of points from two-point range.
Pryce Sandfort isnβt bashful about hoisting 3-point attempts, as he has 10-plus such shots in three of the last six games. But he has also stayed under this projected total three times in that span, and I trust he will be the focal point of the Trojans defense.
π Troy vs. Nebraska same-game parlay
My four-star best bet on Troy to cover hinges largely on its ability to contain Pryce Sandfortβs shooting from beyond the arc. Rather than taking the full-game under, I see more value on the over - especially if Nebraska leans into attacking the paint against Troy's soft interior defense.
💵 Troy vs. Nebraska SGP picks
- Troy +13.5 (-116)
- Over 137.5 (-116)
- Pryce Sandfort Under 3.5 made 3-pointers (-145)
Best odds: +486 via bet365 (1u -> 4.86u)
π΅ My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | +8.10 units β | 21.3% β |
| Game picks | 14-13 | -0.6 units β | -57.8% β |
| Player props | 8-3 | +8.70 units β | 79.1% β |
π‘ How I'm betting Troy vs. Nebraska
With my Troy point spread and Sandfort player prop wagers being four-star plays compared to just two stars of confidence in the Over, I am only making the O/U a half-unit play.
Both Troy and Nebraska are profitable to the Under, including going 18-8 when Nebraska is favored, so consider it a contrarian play.
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
π Live Troy vs. Nebraska odds: NCAA First Round
The only early movement on the point spread as of Monday morning saw Caesars ticking up from -13 to -13.5 to align with the rest of the market.
By comparison, the total saw a lot more movement, coming down a full point at several best sports betting sites that opened at 138 all the way down to 137. It has since settled at 137.5 at every sports book except for FanDuel, which remained in isolation a point higher at 138.5.
π Troy vs. Nebraska betting trends
| Troy | Statistic | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| 22-11 | W-L record | 26-6 |
| 17-14 | ATS record | 17-15 |
| 14-17 | O/U record | 11-21 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
πΊ How to watch Troy vs. Nebraska: NCAA First Round
- Date: Thursday, March 19
- Tipoff: 12:40 p.m. ET
- Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City)
- TV: truTV
- Streaming: Max
π March Madness first-round matchups & previews
Here is the first-round March Madness schedule, and our betting preview:
π March Madness bracket previews: East | Midwest | West | South
Bracket picks & odds analysis
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