🏀 North Dakota State vs. Michigan State Prediction: Today's March Madness Round 1 Picks, Parlay, Odds

In the 2026 NCAA Tournament’s East Region, No. 3 Michigan State faces a classic underdog challenge from No. 14 North Dakota State. The action begins at 4:05 p.m. ET at Buffalo’s KeyBank Center, with a national broadcast on TNT. Oddsmakers currently have the Spartans as 16-point favorites to advance.

My North Dakota State vs. Michigan State prediction digs into how Jeremy Fears Jr. and an elite defense will handle a surging Bison squad. My March Madness predictions think that the Bison might keep Fears in line, but still won't be up to the challenge in the big picture.

🏀 North Dakota State vs. Michigan State picks & odds: March Madness First Round

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

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🏆 Who will win North Dakota State vs. Michigan State?

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I’d be more inclined to consider North Dakota State Bison as a potential upset pick if they had faced tougher competition, but their schedule didn’t include a single opponent ranked inside KenPom's top 115. Meanwhile, Michigan State Spartans have consistently delivered in March, winning at least one game in each of their last seven NCAA Tournament appearances - excluding their First Four exit in 2021.

Score prediction: Michigan State 79, North Dakota State 61

💰 North Dakota State vs. Michigan State prediction & best bet

Under 143.5 (-110)

North Dakota State has the offensive system necessary to space out Michigan State’s defense, ranking in the 93rd percentile in catch-and-shoot rate combined with a 93rd percentile efficiency on such shots. But the Bison also generated many open looks by playing inside-out with an 82nd percentile post-up rate. The Spartans will not have to overhelp on post touches like other mid-majors.

My biggest reason for backing the Under as my best bet instead of Michigan State’s point spread is that the Bison rank in the 11th percentile in transition defense, a necessary feature to shutting down a Tom Izzo-coached attack.

🔥 Best North Dakota State vs. Michigan State player prop bet

Jeremy Fears Under 17.5 points (-105)

Few Big Ten players had the ball in their hands more than Jeremy Fears, who ranked sixth in the conference in possession percentage. While Fears also ranks in the 90th percentile in ball screen usage, North Dakota State’s new defensive philosophy of aggressive hedging should force the ball out of Fears’ hands early and often.

If Fears isn’t getting many points in transition (we already noted the Bison’s elite transition defense), the majority of his points will have to come up straight-line drives or mid-range jumpers. With the Under on his 1.5 3-point attempts juiced as high as -180 (64.29% implied odds), I do not see him making enough twos to exceed this total.

🚀 North Dakota State vs. Michigan State same-game parlay

There is some conflict in this same-game parlay with expecting Michigan State to cover while its leading scorer stays under his projected points total. However, there is solace in knowing Fears scored five or fewer points in his final three NCAA Tournament games last season, while still playing 26 minutes in each. 

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💡 How I'm betting North Dakota State vs. Michigan State: March Madness strategy

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

Jeremy Fears had the highest assist rate of all players in Big Ten action, so he is more than capable of leading the Spartans to a comfortable low-scoring victory while still acting as a primary facilitator. 

I am just as confident on Michigan State getting through easily as I am in the Under, as this is the fourth time in the last 25 years (and the second since 2015) that all four No. 3 seeds have a better than 50% chance to make the Sweet 16. Because of that confidence, all three of my bets are one-unit wagers.

📊 Live North Dakota State vs. Michigan State odds: March Madness First Round

The point spread has not budged off the opening number of -16.5 at any of the best sports betting sites. But that number may shorten as North Dakota State has seen 69% of the early wagers.

The total has only moved at bet365, which ticked up from an opening number of 142.5 to 143.5 to align with the rest of the market.

📈 North Dakota State vs. Michigan State betting trends

📺 How to watch North Dakota State vs. Michigan State: March Madness First Round

• Date: Thursday, March 19
• Tipoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
• Location: KeyBank Center (Buffalo, N.Y.)
• TV: TNT
• Streaming: Max

🆚 March Madness first-round matchups & previews

Here is the first-round March Madness schedule, and our betting preview:

🏀 March Madness bracket previews: East | Midwest | West | South

Bracket picks & odds analysis