UNC Asheville vs. UCLA Predictions, Odds & Picks: Will Bruins Roll in their March Madness Opener?
The No. 2 seed UCLA Bruins were given a favorable location in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament as they face No. 15 UNC Asheville in Sacramento. Read on for our UNC Asheville vs. UCLA prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.
UNC Asheville (27-7, 16-2) won its fourth Big South Conference tournament title since 2011 and its first since 2016. The Bulldogs are trying to become the second Big South team ever to win an NCAA Tournament game, as all other schools are a combined 1-26 in the Round of 64.
UCLA (29-5, 18-2) was a 3-pointer at the buzzer away from beating Arizona in the Pac-12 championship game and doubling down as regular-season champions. The Bruins are making their 50th NCAA Tournament appearance (fourth-most all-time) and are led by Pac-12 Player of the Year Jaime Jaquez (17.3 points per game).
Here is our best UNC Asheville vs. UCLA prediction (odds via FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
UNC Asheville vs. UCLA odds
UNC Asheville vs. UCLA prediction
UNC Asheville +17.5 (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
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UCLA gets a huge advantage playing in Sacramento, but a UNC Asheville team that ranks as the 12th-oldest in the country in terms of D-I experience should be unfazed.
Bulldogs center Drew Pember (21.2 points, 9.4 rebounds per game) is a matchup nightmare, as he leads Division I in free throws and free throws attempted. UCLA’s interior defense with which to handle the Big South Player of the Year is compromised with UCLA forward Adem Bona’s shoulder injury (his status for this game is unknown).
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Even without Bona, the Bruins held Arizona to 61 points and 40.6% shooting inside the arc. However, Pember has also made 37.3% of his 3-point attempts, and his 56 made 3-pointers are tied for the fifth-most of any player his height in the country. His ability to stretch the floor and beat slower defenders off the dribble is a big reason the Bulldogs rank sixth nationally beyond the arc (made 38.8% of 3-point attempts). They should cause some problems for a UCLA defense that is also without its best perimeter defender in forward Jaylen Clark (out for the season with a torn Achilles).
In addition to Pember’s versatility, UNC Asheville’s connected defense is why we like it to stay close. The Bulldogs rank in the top 60 in free throw rate allowed and are disciplined early in the shot clock, as they rank 301st in average defensive possession length. In addition, they routinely force teams into isolation basketball late in possessions, as they allowed the 48th-lowest assist rate per field goals made.
UNC Asheville was not an underdog much this year but covered the spread in eight of the 11 games in that role, and we are backing it to do so again.
Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
UNC Asheville vs. UCLA best odds
FanDuel (-102)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +17.5 | +17.5 | +17.5 | +17.5 | +17.5 |
| -110 | -102 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Check out our breakdown of the best March Madness odds and all of our March Madness picks and betting trends.
All of our best sportsbooks have settled the line at 17.5 points in favor of UCLA as of Wednesday morning. The best book to visit for this bet then becomes FanDuel with reduced -102 juice on the underdogs to cover the spread.
UNC Asheville vs. UCLA odds analysis
UCLA opened as a consensus 18.5-point favorite but has seen its point spread more commonly lowered to +17.5 or +18. As of late Thursday afternoon, the consensus spread favors UCLA by 17.5 points and the Bruins are drawing 53% of the betting action.
The consensus opening O/U was 134.5, and the line has not yet budged at any sportsbook other than BetRivers, who moved to 135. The lack of line movement likely has much to do with the solid two-way betting action thus far, as 67% of the wagers have sided with the Over.
UNC Asheville vs. UCLA game info
- Date: Thursday, March 16, 10:05 p.m. ET
- TV: truTV
- Location: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
UNC Asheville-UCLA pick made 3/14/2023 at 6:26 a.m. ET.
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