March Madness Picks: Sweet 16 Best Bets - Moneyline, ATS, O/U, and Prop Selections from Biggest Games

A trip to the Final Four is at stake for 16 college basketball teams this weekend. As we approach tip-off and the Sweet 16 gets underway, we offer some of our best bets and top picks for the third round of March Madness.

In the West Region, the top-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs will face the fourth-seeded Arkansas Razorbacks in the Sweet 16. Gonzaga hopes to return to the Final Four and avenge its loss in last season's title game.

https://twitter.com/ZagMBB/status/1505711736464150538

Is it possible for all three remaining No. 1 seeds to reach the Final Four? This tournament appears wide open since there are no truly elite teams participating. This is one of the more evenly balanced fields in recent memory, as there is no clear favorite to win the National Championship in New Orleans on April 4.

Several teams were reminded during the first weekend of the tournament to bring your game, not your name. Saint Peter's pulled off not one but two upsets, and now faces the Purdue Boilermakers in the Sweet 16. Can the Peacocks surprise us once again or is the clock about to strike midnight on their Cinderella story?

As you examine the brackets and search for your favorite wagers before the Sweet 16, we present some of our top picks and best bets for the second weekend of March Madness.

SEE ALSO: March Madness Top Picks and Odds

March Madness Sweet 16 Picks: Moneyline

Arkansas (+375 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

I've been pumping the tires of the Arkansas Razorbacks for months, so there's no reason to shy away from this now. Covering 9.5 points doesn't get you through the bracket, it's time for an outright victory. The Gonzaga moneyline has received 97% of the cash and 90% of the tickets through Tuesday. If everyone was betting on it, it wouldn't be a surprise so I won't mind going against the crowd.

https://twitter.com/EricPMusselman/status/1506302370547998734

Arizona (-120 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

I am aware of what the analytics indicate about the Houston Cougars. However, I also believe that every one of their metrics is slightly inflated due to the opponents they have faced. Houston did not defeat an NCAA Tournament participant until the championship game of the AAC tournament. The athleticism of Alabama caused Houston problems earlier in the season, and I believe Arizona will do the same.

SEE ALSO: March Madness Upset Picks

March Madness Sweet 16 Picks: Player Props

JD Notae Over 18.5 points (-105 via DraftKings)

Our Arkansas moneyline pick against Gonzaga is correlated with this player prop. In order for Arkansas to defeat Gonzaga, the team's leading scorer, guard JD Notae, must have a strong performance. I believe Gonzaga will be unable to contain and slow down Notae, which is one of the primary reasons I favor an upset. Historically, Gonzaga has struggled with elite guards getting too much penetration and breaking down its defense. That is what cost the Bulldogs the game against the Baylor Bears last year, and they even switched to a zone defense during the National Championship. In Arkansas' first two games of the NCAA Tournament, Notae has attempted 34 field goals.

Jaylin Williams Over 9.5 rebounds (-110 via DraftKings)

Arkansas forward Jaylin Williams played all 40 minutes in the game against New Mexico State. That right there ought to give you a pretty clear idea of how head coach Eric Musselman feels about Williams and the crucial role he plays. In 10 of his last 12 games, Williams has pulled down more than 9.5 rebounds.

Andrew Nembhard Over 14.5 points (-120 via DraftKings)

Gonzaga's comeback victory over the Memphis Tigers in the round of 32 was led by a remarkable performance by forward Drew Timme. Additionally to Timme, guard Andrew Nembhard stepped up when the Zags most needed him. His role on this team has increased, and he is taking more shots than he did in the past. He has gone over the 14.5-point mark in six of his last seven games.

SEE ALSO: March Madness Sweet 16 Expert Picks

Hunter Dickinson Over 18.5 points (-130 via DraftKings)

Villanova's defensive strength lies in defending the perimeter and contesting 3-point shots. Michigan center Hunter Dickinson, who makes a living from inside the paint, will not be affected. Villanova ranks 133rd among college basketball teams in terms of defense against 2-point field goal attempts. Tennessee ranked 35th in this same statistic, and Dickinson still scored 27 points against the Volunteers. Dickinson exceeded this point total in four of his last five games.

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Trevor Keels Under 3.5 rebounds (+115 via DraftKings)

Duke guard Trevor Keels has been replaced in the starting lineup by Jeremy Roach following the ACC Tournament Championship loss to Virginia Tech. Keels has been averaging 23 minutes per game during the NCAA Tournament, while he averaged 34.8 minutes in the five games prior to March Madness. In addition to his declining minutes, he has gone under this rebounding total seven times in his last nine games. At a price point of +115, this is one of my favorite bets of the Sweet 16.

Remy Martin Over 3.5 assists (+100 via DraftKings)

As he recovers from injury, Kansas guard Remy Martin's playing time continues to increase. In spite of playing fewer than 30 minutes in each of his last three games, Martin recorded more than 3.5 assists in each outing. I believe the Kansas offense will get what it wants against Providence, and Martin will have an easy time creating for his teammates.

SEE ALSO: March Madness Sweet 16 Bold Predictions

Bennedict Mathurin Over 4.5 rebounds (-135 via DraftKings)

Arizona guard Bennedict Mathurin, who was a hero in Arizona's Round of 32 game against TCU, has seen his NBA draft stock soar. Despite Mathurin being the Wildcats' leading scorer, there is more value in his rebound prop than his points prop for this matchup. Mathurin collected more than 4.5 rebounds in seven of his last nine games.

https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/1505760591553568770

March Madness Sweet 16 Picks: Against the Spread

Michigan +5 (-110 via Caesars Sportsbook)

This team may be an 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but make no mistake: when the season began, Michigan ranked significantly higher. Gonzaga opened the year as the favorite to win the National Championship with odds of +600, and the Wolverines were right behind the Bulldogs with odds of +1000. Due to the 5-point spread, I am inclined to back Michigan, with Villanova needing to win by the key number of 6 to cover.

Duke +1 (-110 via FanDuel)

The above line replicates the KenPom projection that Texas Tech will defeat Duke by a single point. Like most college basketball enthusiasts, I rely heavily on KenPom for my analysis, but he has undervalued the ACC teams throughout the tournament. When Texas Tech played Gonzaga earlier in the season, it was completely overmatched. I believe Duke will present similar matchup challenges as Gonzaga did to Texas Tech earlier in the season.

Kansas -7.5 (-110 via FanDuel)

The Providence Friars have been the luckiest team in college basketball, according to KenPom. I believe this spread is too low. Kansas was a 13-point favorite against Creighton in the Round of 32, and Creighton just defeated Providence by a score of 85-58 in the Big East tournament. The Jayhawks should cover the 7.5-point spread and win the game by a wide margin.

https://twitter.com/KUHoops/status/1505597320871780358

Miami -2 (-110 via DraftKings)

Iowa State doesn't have a very talented basketball team and Jim Larranaga is a fantastic coach. A successful start to the season led to Iowa State's selection to the NCAA Tournament. Honestly, I cannot believe the Cyclones are in the Sweet 16, and I think that says a lot about the performance Wisconsin gave us in the second round. The -2 available at DraftKings is the only -2 available on the market, so I would not wait around to purchase this Miami number. Other sportsbooks have already moved to -2.5, as the number continues to swing in favor of Miami.

March Madness Sweet 16 Picks: Over/Under

Providence-Kansas Over 141.5 (-105 via PointsBet)

KenPom forecasts that Kansas and Providence will combine for 145 points in this contest. PointsBet has posted a total for the game that is 3.5 points lower than that projection. Aside from the low total compared to KenPom's prediction, PointsBet also has the Under juiced to -115. Taking into account the numbers, Over 141.5 is a value play in this situation.

March Madness Sweet 16 Picks: Team Totals

UCLA Over 71.5 (-120 via DraftKings)

With regard to the UCLA Bruins, the biggest concern is guard Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s health and the condition of his ankle heading into Friday's game. Based on the information I have located, it appears that he will play in the game. In their matchup against North Carolina, KenPom predicts the Bruins will score 75 points. This is 3.5 points higher than the total posted by DraftKings. As a result, the Over on the team total of 71.5 appears to be a very appealing bet.

Purdue Over 74.5 (-110 via PointsBet)

How will Saint Peter's slow down the Boilermakers' duo of Zach Edey and Trevion Williams on defense? Kentucky forward Oscar Tshiebwe scored 30 points and grabbed 16 rebounds in the Peacocks' victory over the Wildcats. When Saint Peter's played Providence earlier in the season, the Friars' two starting forwards combined for 48 points and 17 rebounds. While the Peacocks are a great story, their defense will not be able to slow down the Purdue offense due to their size.

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Sweet 16 Game Picks

Saints Peter's vs. Purdue PicksIowa State vs. Miami PicksArkansas vs. Gonzaga PicksHouston vs. Arizona PicksProvidence vs. Kansas PicksTexas Tech vs. Duke PicksNorth Carolina vs. UCLA PicksMichigan vs. Villanova Picks

NCAA Tournament History

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Ktcm0/1/

When/Where is the 2021-22 NCAA Tournament?

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/N5JWP/1/

Where to Bet on March Madness Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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