March Madness Sweet 16 Bold Predictions: Longshot Picks for the Final Four and National Championship

Our college basketball experts offer up their favorite bold predictions and longshot picks for March Madness as we prepare for the Sweet 16 this week.

As we prepare for the Sweet 16 of March Madness, our college basketball experts dive a little deeper down the odds board for their favorite longshot picks in our bold predictions. Who will make the Final Four? Who's the best value play left in the tournament to win the National Championship?

Picks made by Jon Metler, Mike Spector, Mike Randle, Brenden Schaeffer, and Henry John. Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Caesars Sportsbook.

March Madness Sweet 16 Bold Predictions

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SEE ALSO: March Madness Top Picks and Odds

Sweet 16 Longshot Picks and Bold Predictions

North Carolina to make the Final Four (+390 via FanDuel)

Is there a point at which you step back and give credit to North Carolina for the results it has achieved recently? The Tar Heels' current level of play continues to surprise us, but perhaps this is who they are now. It was Hubert Davis' first season as the team's head coach, and it takes time to make an impact on the program.

On the night of Coach K's final home game, UNC defeated Duke by 13 points at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Then, we watched the Tar Heels blow the doors off Marquette and provide one of the most dominating performances in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. They followed up their victory over Marquette by taking a 25-point lead into their game against the No. 1 seeded Baylor Bears, which may have ended as a blowout had it not been for some horrendous officiating. On paper, they may be the eighth seed, but they have dominated some quality opponents.

The road ahead

It will not be North Carolina's first encounter with a Mick Cronin-coached UCLA team. In 2020, when North Carolina had one of its most disappointing seasons in recent memory, the Tar Heels defeated UCLA by 10 points in Las Vegas. Forward Armando Bacot was their top scorer in 2020, and they will lean heavily on him in their Sweet 16 game against the Bruins.

SEE ALSO: North Carolina vs. UCLA Picks

In my opinion, the ACC is undervalued as a conference on KenPom, and it is creating value on teams like Duke and North Carolina in the futures markets. In the Elite Eight, the Tar Heels will have a much easier matchup if they can defeat the UCLA Bruins on Friday. It is an ideal situation for North Carolina to play Purdue since the Boilermakers have a worse defense.

Make sure you examine the numbers for North Carolina to make the Final Four and to win the East Region when shopping for futures odds. The bet is the same, but the markets may not line up the way you expect. North Carolina is currently priced at +390 to make the Final Four on FanDuel. At various sportsbooks, the Tar Heels are offered at slightly shorter odds to win the East Region than to make the Final Four. - Metler

SEE ALSO: March Madness Sweet 16 Expert Picks

Houston to make the Final Four (+240 via DraftKings)

Once Houston lost guards Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark to season-ending injuries earlier this season, not many gave head coach Kelvin Sampson’s bunch a chance to get back to the Final Four for a second consecutive season. Even when the Cougars dominated AAC competition this year, many chalked that up to playing in a weak conference. Yet, here Houston is in the Sweet 16 after winning its first two NCAA Tournament games by an average of 14.5 points and with a legitimate chance to represent the South Region in the Final Four.

Oddsmakers are giving Houston more than a puncher’s chance to beat top-seeded Arizona, as the Wildcats are just 2-point favorites. Arizona has a massive size advantage over Houston. However, the Cougars can mitigate that by harassing the Wildcats’ guards, namely Kerr Kriisa, who still does not look 100% since returning from an ankle injury.

One last hurdle?

If the Cougars get past Arizona, they would certainly be favored over Michigan, and a potential game against Villanova would likely be a coin-flip. We have seen Villanova struggle when teams get physical with its guards, i.e., Baylor holding Villanova to 36 points. In addition, playing in nearby San Antonio should provide the Cougars with plenty of fan support.

Houston has the pedigree of a Final Four team once again, and we will gladly fire at the +240 odds for the Cougars to win the next two games. - Spector

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Arkansas to win the National Championship (+6000 via DraftKings)

When the bracket was first revealed, I thought Gonzaga had a very tough path to the Final Four. The Bulldogs were in major trouble against Memphis on Saturday and barely escaped with an 82-78 victory. Gonzaga struggled with Memphis' athleticism, needing a superman second-half performance from center Drew Timme (25 points and 14 rebounds) to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. 

Arkansas presents all the athletic problems that Memphis posed, with much better overall metrics. The backcourt of JD Notae (18.4 points per game and 3.6 assists per game), Stanley Umude (12.0 PPG, 37.5 3-point percentage), and Au'Diese Toney (10.7 PPG, 5.2 rebounds per game) are more talented and efficient backcourt players than the Zags have faced all season. Additionally, 6-foot-10 forward Jaylin Williams (10.5 PPG, 9.8 RPG) should match up well with Timme. 

Gonzaga's the toughest remaining test

The Bulldogs do not force turnovers, and will thus allow the Razorbacks to get comfortable on offense. If Arkansas gets hot from 3-point range, it can definitely beat Gonzaga. The winner of the West bracket will have a significant advantage over the East Region, which already lost its top two seeds. At 60-1, the Razorbacks present great futures value, having the perfect balance of offense and defense to make a deep run to the National Championship. 

Consider dropping a wager on a Razorbacks team that is top 50 in 2-point field goal defense, great on the boards, forces turnovers, and has a great late-game shot-maker in Notae. Their odds are significantly worse than the other three teams in the West Region (Gonzaga +200, Texas Tech +1200, Duke +1500), yet the talent differential is minimal. - Randle

Texas Tech to make the Final Four (+400 via FanDuel)

Asked for a long-range prediction, I was tempted to select either Arizona (+140) or Houston (+240) to reach the Final Four out of the South Region; however, I'm not confident enough in picking the winner of that shootout.

For my bold prediction, I'm going with one that I held before the tournament bracket was even revealed, and that's Texas Tech to reach the Final Four. After Selection Sunday, I wrote that the Red Raiders at +2500 to win the National Championship was a great value. Since, we've seen TTU win a game with outlandish offense and stingy defense, displaying Tech's versatility. The Red Raiders will need both offense and defense to be clicking at full force against Duke and then the winner of Gonzaga-Arkansas on tap in a potential Elite Eight game. Still, I like the intensity of this Texas Tech team, and I believe you're getting the Red Raiders at a great price due to the name recognition of the opponents in their path.

Defense to lead the way

Texas Tech is currently a slim favorite over a young Duke team that is going to have trouble finding scoring rhythm in the Sweet 16 matchup. Then, with the best adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation, Tech could put Gonzaga on upset alert in the subsequent round. The +400 odds on TTU to the Final Four represent strong value considering how head coach Mark Adams has this team playing in his first season at the helm in Lubbock. - Schaeffer

UCLA to win the National Championship (+1600 via Caesars)

After grinding out an ugly, low-scoring win in the First Round, UCLA was extremely impressive in defeating Saint Mary’s in the Round of 32 on Saturday. This was a Saint Mary’s team, mind you, that is no slouch whatsoever. The Gaels defeated Gonzaga once and maintained a top-25 overall ranking, according to KenPom, for virtually the entire season. 

UCLA used a full team effort to win by 16 over Saint Mary’s. Point guard Tyger Campbell scored 16 points to lead a quartet of players who finished in double figures. Based on their top 10 KenPom rating which includes individual rankings of 12th and 13th in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively, the Bruins were clearly underseeded coming into March Madness. Fortunately for Cronin’s team, the road to a second straight Final Four got a bit easier.

Thanks to North Carolina knocking off top-seeded Baylor and St. Peter’s raising hell in the lower half of the East Region, the worst case for the Bruins is that they face the 8-seed and the 3-seed during the second weekend. Although UNC is a scary-looking 8-seed right now, UCLA’s stingy defense should prove effective in slowing down the high-flying Tar Heels. 

Experience kicking in

Bettors also cannot discount the experience factor when it comes to the deep waters of the NCAA Tournament. Campbell, Johnny Juzang, Jaime Jacquez Jr., and Cody Riley were all key contributors to last year’s Final Four team. The Bruins know what it takes to win, even if it isn’t always pretty.

The ankle injury that forced Jacquez out of Saturday’s Second round game also must be addressed. In his postgame press conference, Cronin certainly expressed optimism that the guard would do whatever necessary to play in the Sweet 16. The fact that the Bruins face UNC on Friday also buys him an extra day. Yet, even if he is forced to miss Friday’s contest, bettors should not underestimate some of the young depth that UCLA has. 

After being overshadowed by Arizona in the Pac-12 all season long, UCLA continues to quietly move closer to a return trip to the Final Four. As the highest power-rated team left standing in the East Region, a national title feels even more realistic than before the tournament began.

Where to Bet on March Madness

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