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March Madness Sweet 16 Upset Picks: Top Seed in Danger

Mike Spector

Last Updated: March 23, 2022 6:13 AM EDT • 3 min 15 sec read.

SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 20: Christian Koloko #35 and Bennedict Mathurin #0 of the Arizona Wildcats compete for position with Eddie Lampkin #4 of the TCU Horned Frogs during the first half in the second round game of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 20, 2022 in San Diego, California. Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Sean M. Haffey / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

With double-digit seeded teams making up a quarter of the Sweet 16, we have to be in store for more upsets, right? Of our three March Madness Sweet 16 upset picks, we identify the No. 1 seed that is most vulnerable.

March Madness is all about the upsets and we can expect plenty more from the Sweet 16 through the national championship. Though three No. 1 seeds are in action between Thursday and Friday, we only believe two make it to the Elite Eight. In addition, a team from the Big 12 is ripe for an upset, as is one from the ACC, though it may not be the one you think.

Here are my top upset picks for March Madness Sweet 16 action (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

March Madness Sweet 16 Upset Picks

Houston (+105) vs. Arizona ????North Carolina (+120) vs. UCLA ??Iowa State (+125) vs. Miami ???

SEE ALSO: March Madness Sweet 16 Bold Predictions

March Madness Sweet 16 Upset Predictions

Houston (+105)

Mike Tyson famously said, "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." While keeping within legal basketball rules, Houston will beat top-seeded Arizona because it will play with a level of physicality that the Wildcats were not accustomed to on a nightly basis in the Pac-12.

Arizona only has three losses on the season, but the team averaged 65 points per game in those contests. For record-keeping, the Wildcats are 3-3 when held to 73 or fewer points.

Houston's defense is ranked ninth in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric and ranks in the top 10 in effective field goal percentage defense, 2-point percentage allowed, 3-point percentage allowed, and block percentage. Thus, when Arizona is inevitably held below its gaudy 84.6 point-per-game scoring average (third-best in the country), how will it respond?

There is a lot to love about Arizona, but one needs tough-minded and sure-handed guards to compete for a full 40 minutes with Houston, and that will be the Wildcats' Achilles heel in this matchup. Look for Houston to make this game as ugly as possible, which is not how Arizona is comfortable playing.

SEE ALSO: March Madness Betting Guide

North Carolina (+120)

UCLA star forward Jaime Jaquez (14 ppg, 5.7 rpg) went down with an ankle injury in the second half of last week's Round of 32 victory over Saint Mary's. And while Jaquez has been dealing with ankle injuries all season, this one looked worse, both with the amount of pain he appeared to be in when it happened and with the wraps and bags of ice taped to him as he watched from the bench. Of Jaquez, head coach Mick Cronin said, "We got until Friday to play, and trust me, if he can walk, he'll play."

While that quote was a vote of confidence in his player's toughness and ability to work through injuries all season, are we sure that playing him at less than 100% is wise? If a gimpy Jaquez takes the floor, look for Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis to attack him relentlessly on defense, whether by moving forward Brady Manek around the floor or having guards Leaky Black or Caleb Love attack him off the dribble.

If Jaquez cannot play, his role will be filled by sophomore Jaylen Clark or freshman Peyton Watson, neither of whom has averaged more than 19 minutes this season.

The Tar Heels are coming off one of their best offensive performances, shredding a usually solid Baylor defense and assisting on 22 of their 28 field goals. But, Jaquez or no Jaquez, North Carolina is a live underdog.

Iowa State (+125)

The Miami Hurricanes have been impressive through the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, edging USC and taking the fight right out of Auburn in the Round of 32. Miami's success is centered around its three veteran guards that can attack off the dribble, which puts a lot of pressure on an opponent's man-to-man defense. However, Iowa State is one of the most disciplined defensive teams in the country and defense is what has been keeping them exceeding expectations all season long.

The Cyclones rank fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and are battle-tested, having survived the rigors of the Big 12. Iowa State holds opponents to less than 29% shooting from 3-point range (ninth-best in the country) and can force an off-shooting night from the Hurricanes.

Iowa State has not lost a game outside the Big 12 (15-0). The Cyclones are a good bet to keep that non-conference winning streak alive in this matchup.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.