Iowa State vs Miami: 2022 March Madness Picks and Odds

Henry John

Last Updated: March 25, 2022 6:32 AM EDT • 3 min 61 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

GREENVILLE, SOUTH CAROLINA - MARCH 20: Charlie Moore #3 of the Miami (Fl) Hurricanes dribbles against the Auburn Tigers in the second half during the second round of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 20, 2022 in Greenville, South Carolina. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Kevin C. Cox / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

It took a pair of surprising offensive outbursts just for Iowa State to win two low-scoring games last weekend. The chances of lightning striking for a third time are slim, which will make it tough for the Cyclones to cover a short point spread. Here are our Iowa State-Miami picks.

The second of two Midwest regional semifinals Friday features a pair of unlikely participants. With chaos ensuing in the bottom portion of the regional bracket, the 11-seed Iowa State Cyclones and 10-seed Miami Hurricanes are set to do battle in a surprising Sweet 16 matchup.

This season has truly been a remarkable turnaround for Iowa State (19-15 against the spread, 15-19 O/U). After a horrendous campaign a year ago in which the Cyclones won all of two games, T.J. Otzelberger has led ISU back to March Madness in his first year at the helm. The fact that Iowa State managed to score back-to-back upsets last weekend after getting destroyed in a one-and-done Big 12 Tournament appearance shows the resiliency of this team. Stingy defense keyed the Cyclones two five-point wins over LSU and Wisconsin.

For the first time since 2016, Miami (20-15 ATS, 20-15 O/U) is back in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. For every marquee win that Jim Larranaga's Hurricanes picked up during the regular season, they would turn around and suffer a terrible loss. Despite the general belief that the ACC was down this year, the U was part of an impressive opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament for the conference. Miami scored upsets of both USC and two-seed Auburn to advance to the Sweet 16.

Here are my picks and predictions for Friday's March Madness Sweet 16 matchup between Iowa State and Miami (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Iowa State vs Miami Matchup Info

Date: Friday, March 24, 9:59 p.m. ETTV: TBSLocation: United Center, Chicago, IL

Iowa State vs Miami Odds

The current point spread for the 10-11 Sweet 16 matchup that everyone predicted mirrors the opening number as set by oddsmakers. Miami continues to hold firm as a two-point favorite across the betting market. There are a number of sportsbooks listing the game Miami -2.5 to reflect an early move on the side.

As for the total, the opening line of 130 got hammered by sharp bettors right out of the gates. As a result, the Over/Under grew by three full points and currently sits at a consensus line of 133. An occasional 133.5 can be found by shopping the market.

The public seems to be all over Miami in this matchup. At the time of writing, a whopping 84% of spread bets are laying the small number with the Hurricanes. The ticket count for the total is much more evenly split with 54% of bets siding with the Under.

Iowa State vs Miami Picks

Miami -2 (-105) ???Under 133 (-110) ??

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Iowa State vs Miami ATS Pick

Miami -2 (-105)

In many ways, Iowa State and Miami are very similar. Both teams have experienced backcourts. Both also pulled off their fair share of impressive victories prior to even reaching the NCAA Tournament. However, the key difference between the two is their respective strong suits.

For Iowa State, defense is the name of the game. One needs not look further than the Cyclones' two March Madness games last weekend for proof of this. ISU ranks fifth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Although Miami ranks outside of the top 100 in adjusted defense, the Hurricanes make up for it with their play on the offensive end. Larranaga's team has averaged 114.8 points per 100 possessions over the course of the season. This ranks 18th in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency.

Another key facet of the game in which the Hurricanes thrived last week is the turnover battle. Miami only turned the ball over seven times in both the first and second rounds of the tournament combined. The backcourt is anchored by seniors Kameron McGusty and Charlie Moore. Experienced guard play figures to serve Miami well, especially in a matchup against a savvy Iowa State defense.

The other key factor working against Iowa State is its lack of offensive versatility. The Cyclones benefitted from Tyrese Hunter getting hot from deep in their game against LSU. It was Gabe Kalscheur's turn to go off against Wisconsin. However, on the season, Hunter and leading scorer Izaiah Brockington are the only ISU players averaging in double figures.

Expecting to hold teams to 55 points in the latter stages of the NCAA Tournament is not an ideal plan. Iowa State will be hard-pressed to keep pace and cover such a short spread if Miami's offense holds its own.

Iowa State vs Miami Over/Under Pick

Under 133 (-110)

Iowa State's chances of springing the upset rest with keeping the matchup below the betting total. Given the gap in productivity between the Cyclones' offense and defense, their best bet is to slow things down and make it ugly.

Playing at a slow tempo is something ISU did quite often this season. The Cyclones averaged only 66.1 possessions per 40 minutes. This ranks as the 237th-fastest adjusted tempo in Division I, according to KenPom.

Although Miami is the opposite of Iowa State in that the Hurricanes' offense is more efficient than their defense, they are also not a team that plays at a blistering pace. Miami only ranks 147th in adjusted tempo, averaging 67.5 possessions per 40 minutes.

One other element to consider is the fact that Miami ranks 41st in college basketball in the fewest personal fouls committed on a per-game basis. The Hurricanes have only committed 14.8 fouls per game on the season. Thus, an already challenged Cyclones offense likely won't be able to earn many freebies at the charity stripe either.

Considering that the total shot up three full points after opening at 130, the best value on the Over is long gone. Given the move and what these two teams are expected to bring to the table, buying back on the Under at 133 is the preferred option at this juncture.

Where to Bet Iowa State-Miami Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook Caesars Sportsbook DraftKings Sportsbook PointsBet BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Iowa State-Miami picks made 3/22/2022 at 5:33 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.