March Madness Sweet 16 Expert Picks: Best ATS and O/U Bets

Following an exciting first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, the Sweet 16 kicks off Thursday. Here are our top March Madness Sweet 16 expert picks.

Our college basketball experts select their top against the spread and Over/Under picks for the March Madness Sweet 16 matchups (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, FOX Bet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Sweet 16 March Madness Expert Picks

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/N5BcN/2/

SEE ALSO: March Madness Picks, Odds and Printable Bracket

March Madness Sweet 16 Expert Picks: ATS

Texas Tech -1 (-110 via Caesars)

Collectively, the Big 12 and ACC have been two of the most impressive conferences in the NCAA Tournament thus far. When it comes to the numbers and metrics that matter, Texas Tech ranks slightly ahead of Duke despite being wrongfully seeded under them in the West Region of the bracket.

The Red Raiders hardly skipped a beat in the wake of head coach Chris Beard's departure to rival Texas. Not only did Tech defeat the Longhorns twice this season, but the Red Raiders one-upped them in the NCAA Tournament by advancing to the Sweet 16. Defense has been the calling card for new coach Mark Adams' team all season long. TTU has surrendered all of 84.4 points per 100 possessions this season. This ranks as the No. 1 adjusted defensive efficiency in the country.

When it comes to Tech's Sweet 16 matchup with Duke, that defensive prowess figures to be vital to slowing down the Blue Devils' top-5 adjusted offense. Although a line move through pick'em is not necessarily the most significant, it is very noteworthy that the market flipped Texas Tech to the favorite in this game.

Despite the program's storied history and swaths of young talent on this Duke team, they will be hard-pressed to knock off one of the Big 12's best squads. Outside of Paolo Banchero, the Blue Devils lack a true reliable scoring threat. This figures to be a massive problem against the best defense in all of college basketball. Led by Bryson Williams and Oral Roberts transfer Kevin Obanor, the Red Raiders have more experienced players as well. - John

Duke +1 (-110 via Caesars)

While chaos ensued during the first weekend of March Madness, it did not happen in the West Region, where all four top seeds made it to the Sweet 16. The Blue Devils, the No. 2 seed, will play the Red Raiders, the No. 3 seed, on Thursday at the Chase Center in San Francisco.

Throughout the week leading up to this matchup, you will hear how Texas Tech is going to pull off the upset. It will be simple to analyze. Texas Tech has the most efficient defense in college basketball, while Duke ranks 42nd. While all of this is true, I believe there is a different angle at play here.

Everyone in the college basketball community uses KenPom for their analysis, but I believe we are seeing a situation where his numbers have undervalued the ACC. There was a similar scenario last season with the Pac-12, who exceeded all expectations in the NCAA tournament.

When Texas Tech faced the Gonzaga Bulldogs earlier in the season, the Red Raiders struggled mightily and lost by 14 points. Prior to its game against Texas Tech, Gonzaga faced Duke in Las Vegas, and the Blue Devils won by three points. As Gonzaga did when they met in December, Duke should present Texas Tech with many of the same challenges.

There appears to be a little too much Texas Tech love in this number. Texas Tech is a talented team, but it is also Adams' first NCAA Tournament appearance as a head coach. His club should not be favored by one point. - Metler

SEE ALSO: Texas Tech vs. Duke Picks

UCLA -2 (-110 via DraftKings)

The North Carolina upset win over Baylor was a microcosm of the Tar Heels' season. When they are playing well, they can beat any team in the country. North Carolina closed the season on a five-game winning streak, including a huge 94-81 win at Duke.

But when they've been bad, they've been very bad.

While the Tar Heels lost Brady Manek to a questionable ejection in the second half, they should have been able to hold their 25-point lead over the Bears. Playing without leading-scorer LJ Cryer, Baylor was able to force overtime with a scintillating second-half comeback. The Tar Heels now face an experienced and disciplined UCLA team that just started playing its best basketball of the season.

The Bruins earned an impressive 72-56 win over a tough Saint Mary's team on Saturday, and present a ton of problems for the Tar Heels. The Bruins are fifth-best in the country in offensive turnover percentage, led by point guard Tyger Campbell. UCLA also excels at the mid-range game, with Johnny Juzang (15.7 PPG) and Jaime Jaquez (14 PPG) as versatile offensive weapons.

North Carolina was able to jump out to an early lead on Baylor with superior 3-point shooting. North Carolina shot 11-of-25 (44%) from deep, led by RJ Davis' five of 10 from deep (30 points). UCLA's stifling half-court defense limited Pac-12 opponents to just 30.6% from beyond the arc, and the Bruins strong rebounding metrics should also limit the Tar Heels interior strength.

This number is too low, and is greatly influenced by UNC's last win over Baylor. UCLA is the better team and more experienced team, giving me great confidence to lay the two points with the Bruins. - Randle

SEE ALSO: North Carolina vs UCLA Picks

Arkansas +9 (-110 via FanDuel)

In both of its opening weekend victories, Gonzaga had its hands full for longer than one might have anticipated. In the process of surviving and advancing, the Bulldogs needed until about midway through the second half to convincingly dispose of No. 16-seed Georgia State. They actually trailed in portions of the second half before pulling away for a 21-point win. Against Memphis in the Round of 32, Gonzaga survived a scare to hold on by four points.

That's two straight wins for Gonzaga in the record book, but consecutive losses against the spread. Nevertheless, the sportsbooks seem to remain steadfast in their belief that Gonzaga should be blowing these teams out, as the Bulldogs are nearly double-digit favorites over No. 4 Arkansas in the Sweet 16 matchup. The Hogs played a vicious SEC schedule to prepare themselves for this moment. Sporting a similar (but better, per KenPom) build to the Memphis roster that gave Gonzaga fits in its previous game, I like Arkansas to keep things close to cover this inflated number. - Schaeffer

Purdue -12.5 (-110 via FanDuel)

Oral Roberts came tantalizingly close to becoming the first-ever No. 15 seed to reach the Elite Eight last year, falling to Arkansas by just two points in the Sweet 16. However, that was a great matchup for them, while Purdue is not a great matchup for No. 15 seed Saint Peter's.

While the Peacocks have four days to prepare for the Boilermakers, it does not matter how long the prep time is if there is no way to simulate defending a player that stands 7-foot-4. The MAAC has no player remotely close to the size of Zach Edey. Thus, Saint Peter's coach Shaheen Holloway has his hands full trying to devise a game plan where he not only limits Edey but does not allow others to go off, given the defensive attention he will have to pay to the big man. Zone defense alone is not the answer, as Purdue has shredded zones all year.

Philadelphia should be full of Saint Peter's fans who will make the short drive from New Jersey. However, one also has to wonder how much the increased media attention on the Peacocks' Cinderella story all week will factor into their play on the court. - Spector

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

https://twitter.com/johnewing/status/1506986439283814402

March Madness Sweet 16 Expert Picks: O/U

Arkansas-Gonzaga Over 154 (-110 via FanDuel)

Arkansas is currently an underdog of 8.5 points against Gonzaga.

As both teams rank in the top 15 on KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency, it is the tempo at which both teams prefer to play that makes us lean towards the Over. The offenses will not be fighting each other to establish a tempo in the game, as both teams like to push the ball up the court. Arkansas and Gonzaga are both ranked among the top 28 teams in college basketball in terms of adjusted tempo.

Several sportsbooks opened this total with a number of 154.5. This is the number that most sportsbooks are showing currently. FanDuel is the only sportsbook showing 154. Despite the fact that it is still early in the week, we are seeing 80% of cash and 70% of tickets on the Over.

The KenPom projection for this game is on target at 154. One of the easiest ways to pull an upset is to limit possessions. However, I believe that Arkansas will face Gonzaga head on and try to run with them. Eric Musselman's team will not back down from Gonzaga in this game. - Metler

Houston-Arizona Under 145.5 (-110 via FanDuel)

What happens when one of the best Over teams in the country faces one of the best Under teams? Usually, that translates to an Under.

Arizona was 21-15 to the Over this season, including going above the game total in seven of the last eight games. However, when teams with a deliberate style have faced the Wildcats, they have been able to slow them down. Arizona had a mid-season streak of four consecutive Unders with games against more deliberate opponents, such as UCLA and USC.

Houston's suffocating defense is difficult to prepare for, especially as a non-conference opponent. The Cougars usually get their preferred pace in those matchups, hitting the Under in nine of 15 games (60%). Houston's games have played to the Under in seven of their last nine matchups.

The Cougars have held nine of their last 10 opponents to 68 points or fewer, and I'm backing Kelvin Sampson's defense to limit the explosive Wildcats offense enough to go Under this total. - Randle

Houston-Arizona Over 144.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

Let me get this straight: Against a defense-first, slow-tempo team like TCU, the total for Arizona's last game was right around 144.5-145.5. The two sides demolished the number in regulation before exceeding it further in the overtime period Sunday night. But now that Arizona is matched up with a truly tremendous and efficient offense, the total stays in virtually the same spot as the TCU game?

I recognize that Houston likes to slow the pace of the game, checking in with a bottom-30 adjusted tempo in college basketball this season. But a top-10 offense is a top-10 offense, and both the Cougars and the Wildcats have one. Houston's going to try to keep the pace under control, but with the way the Wildcats are capable of running the floor, the Cougars will have to adjust if they hope to keep up in this Sweet 16 affair. I love the Over in this game, as I see both teams eclipsing 75 points as two competitive offensive squads battle for the right to advance to the Elite Eight. - Schaeffer

Providence-Kansas Over 141 (-110 via FOX Bet)

Providence plays at a slow tempo (284th, per KenPom) and ranks in the top 60 in adjusted defensive efficiency. However, the Friars' defense has been shredded in some of their biggest games, as they allowed an average of 83.3 points in their two regular-season losses to Villanova and Big East Tournament loss to Creighton. They also allowed 88 points on the road in a 32-point loss to Marquette.

Thus, if you feel Kansas will win the game (they are 7.5-point favorites), there is a good chance the Jayhawks will find offensive success in victory. Kansas has averaged 77.1 ppg during its current seven-game winning streak, and a handful of those games were against some of the toughest Big 12 defenses. Comparatively, Providence's defense - that has been a sieve in its biggest games - should feel like a walk in the park.

While other sportsbooks like BetMGM and DraftKings offer a total of 141.5, we opt to wager through FOX Bet, which is giving Over backers like us an extra half-point worth of value. - Spector

Where to Bet on March Madness

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.