Texas Tech vs. Duke: 2022 March Madness Picks and Odds

Mike Spector

Last Updated: March 23, 2022 4:03 AM EDT • 2 min 55 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

FORT WORTH, TX - FEBRUARY 26: Bryson Williams #11 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders goes up to shoot against Daniel Batcho #4 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the first half at Schollmaier Arena on February 26, 2022 in Fort Worth, Texas. TCU upset Tech 69-66. Ron Jenkins/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Ron Jenkins / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Only the West Region had all its top-four seeds advance to the Sweet 16, setting up a mammoth regional semifinal matchup. Let's dive in with our March Madness odds and picks for Texas Tech-Duke.

Texas Tech (27-9, 12-6) cruised to a victory during its opening-round game against Montana State, scoring 97 points while breaking the school’s previous NCAA Tournament scoring record set in 1996.

However, their Round of 32 win didn't come as easily, as the Red Raiders were trailing No. 11 Notre Dame by three points with fewer than two minutes remaining. Texas Tech then exerted its will in the paint down the stretch, scoring 10 of its final 12 points from the free-throw line before narrowly earning a six-point win.

The triumph was the Red Raiders’ 12th during the Big Dance since 2018. They took just eight tournament games from 1939 to 2017.

Meanwhile, every game could be Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski’s last, and Michigan State came dangerously close to ending the iconic coach’s career during the Round of 32. The Spartans held a five-point lead with five minutes left. But Duke produced a 20-6 run to finish the contest, relying on defense and clutch shots. The Blue Devils are now appearing in their 28th Sweet 16 (second-most all time), and the ACC is 8-2 in this tournament.

Here are my Texas Tech-Duke March Madness picks and predictions for Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchup (Odds via Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Texas Tech vs. Duke Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, March 24th, 9:39 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

Texas Tech vs. Duke Odds

Texas Tech is a one-point favorite at a few places (Caesars, DraftKings Sportsbook), though most sportsbooks are still listing the Red Raiders at -1.5. This line will surely jump the fence if the betting action so far continues. Duke is attracting 72% of the tickets and 64% of the money, suggesting some sharp cash is landing on the favorites.

Sharps have been all over the projected 137-point total. While 62% of the tickets are backing the Over, 70% of the cash is on the Under. That's causing some books like BetMGM and FanDuel to move to 136.5. The Over is 6-1 during Duke’s seven neutral-site games, while the Under is 9-6 in Texas Tech’s 15 non-conference contests.

Texas Tech vs. Duke Picks

Texas Tech -1 (-110) ???Under 137 (-110) ???

Texas Tech vs. Duke Predictions

Texas Tech -1 (-110)

The pressure Duke’s players feel to keep Coach K’s historic career going is mounting the further the Blue Devils advance. And Texas Tech holds a significant advantage if you believe experience wins out in March.

The Red Raiders are the 34th-most experienced team in Division I, while Duke is the 13th-youngest. The ACC is producing a tremendous showing so far in the tournament, but the Big 12 is the only conference with three Sweet 16 teams. That makes Texas Tech the more battle-tested squad entering this clash.

The Red Raiders' “no-middle” defense will consistently force the Blue Devils to attempt perimeter shots. That's been the best way to defend Paolo Banchero, as he's gone just 4-for-15 shooting from 3-point range over his last five contests. Duke is at its best when the team can consistently get into the lane, but the Red Raiders won't allow that in this tilt.

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Under 137 (-110)

Duke ranks 29th in the country while shooting 37% from distance. In theory, that should come in handy against a Texas Tech team that doesn't give up easy baskets at the rim.

However, Duke’s excellent 3-point percentage is a product of the Blue Devils' opponents not being able to keep them out of the lane, or they've been respecting Mark Williams’ ability to finish inside. Texas Tech's rim protection is good, and its defense isn't as vulnerable off the dribble. As a result, the Red Raiders contest a higher percentage of perimeter shots.

Duke has allowed 82 points per game during its 11 outings against tournament teams in 2021-22. But opponents like North Carolina, Kentucky, and Gonzaga looked to push the pace a lot more than Texas Tech, as it ranks 217th in adjusted tempo. So the more the Red Raiders can turn this game into a half-court grind, the more the contest will feed into the school's top-ranked defense and the advantage points Texas Tech's way.

Where to Bet on March Madness

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook Caesars Sportsbook DraftKings Sportsbook PointsBet BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

March Madness odds and best bets made 3/17/2022 at 9:59 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Mike Spector

I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.