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Alijah Martin and the Florida Atlantic Owls hope to advance to the Final Four in our Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State predictions.
Alijah Martin #15 of the Florida Atlantic Owls celebrates after defeating the Tennessee Volunteers in the Sweet 16 round game of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Madison Square Garden on March 23. Al Bello/Getty Images/AFP

A team making its first Elite Eight appearance is up against a head coach in his first Elite Eight outing, as the No. 9 Florida Atlantic Owls face the No. 3 Kansas State Wildcats in the East Regional Final on Saturday. Read on for our Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.

When Florida Atlantic beat Tennessee in the regional semifinals, it moved the Owls one win ahead of Houston for the most wins by any Division I team (34) this season. In addition, Florida Atlantic became the seventh No. 9 seed to reach the Elite Eight.

Kansas State’s Jerome Tang became the first Big 12 coach to win his first three career NCAA Tournament games and has led the Wildcats to their third Elite Eight since 2010.

Here is our best Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State prediction (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State odds

Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State prediction

Florida Atlantic +2.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Much of our betting strategy is centered on tapping into what the general public thinks and fading them accordingly if they are overwhelmingly on one side. With the early wagers 4/1 on Kansas State’s point spread and with Wildcats point guard Markquis Nowell becoming a household name overnight, we're going the other route and making FAU a contrarian play despite how much buzz Kansas State is generating.

Check out our Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State prop picks

There's no denying how well Nowell has played to this point. He's coming off an astounding 20-point, 19-assist game against Michigan State, which set the NCAA Tournament record for most assists in a game. In addition, per OptaSTATS, Nowell is the first player in 18 years to accrue at least 64 points, 42 assists, and 11 steals in any three-game span, let alone three games in the NCAA Tournament.

However, Owls head coach Dusty May is used to coming up with game plans for electric point guards, as he has faced UAB’s Jordan Walker (the nation’s fourth-leading scorer) five times in the last two years. After being torched for 53 points in two losses by Walker last year, the Owls held him to 17.3 points per game in three meetings this year, which bodes well for their chances of defensive success against the ball-dominant Nowell.

Florida Atlantic is a balanced team, ranking in the top 29 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. And while the Wildcats rank seventh nationally in assists per field goals made, the Owls have a knack for blowing that team approach up and forcing teams to play heavy isolation basketball, as they rank second nationally in assists per field goals allowed.

This is a three-star play as Florida Atlantic is 23-11-1 against the spread this season, tied for the best ATS mark of teams in the tournament field.

Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State best odds

FanDuel (-114)


When getting less than three points (what amounts to one possession) in basketball, it's always tempting to back the underdogs on the moneyline if we're confident in them covering. However, even though the Owls own a 10-game winning streak (third-longest active streak in the country), we're happy to head to FanDuel and grab the +2.5 points. Although,we're hoping to catch +3 or better eventually if the betting splits continue to remain heavily in the Wildcats’ favor.

Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State odds analysis

Kansas State opened as consensus 2.5-point favorites, and that has dropped slightly to Kansas State -2 across our best sportsbooks as of Saturday morning. A few sports betting sites (DraftKings and BetRivers) opened at -2 but have not wavered off that overnight number. However, the betting splits suggest we could see some line movement in the coming hours, as 70% of betting activity on the spread is backing Kansas State.

The consensus opening total of 143.5 did not last long. All sportsbooks have moved to 144.5, which aligns with the market that has seen 60% of all wagers back the Over.

Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State game info

  • Date: Saturday, March 25, 6:09 p.m. ET
  • TV: TBS
  • Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Florida Atlantic-Kansas State pick made 3/24/2023 at 6:42 a.m. ET.

Here are our best March Madness betting sites:

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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

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