Last Minute National Championship Game Picks for Purdue vs. UConn
We're offering our best last-minute national championship game picks for Purdue vs. UConn based on the best March Madness odds ahead of Monday's title game.
At long last, the final game of the 2024 NCAA Tournament has arrived as the favored No. 1 seed UConn Huskies (36-3) face the No. 1 seed Purdue Boilermakers (34-4) in the March Madness final, which tips off Monday at 9:20 p.m. ET (TBS) from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.
Our best sports betting sites have Connecticut as a 7-point favorite to beat Purdue and cut down the nets for the second straight season - joining Florida (2006-07) as the only back-to-back champions in the last 30 years. It would also mark UConn's sixth national title, which would tie North Carolina for the third-most all time.
Purdue, on the other hand, is looking for its first championship in program history after reaching its first Final Four since 1980. Zach Edey, the favorite by the March Madness MVP odds, has been unstoppable in this tournament, though he'll draw a tough matchup against UConn's Donovan Clingan in Monday's star-studded affair.
In addition to our Purdue vs. UConn prediction and other men's national championship expert picks, here are our last-minute national championship game picks for Purdue vs. UConn (college basketball picks based on odds from our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Last-minute national championship picks for Purdue vs. UConn
- Purdue +7 (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Donovan Clingan Under 13.5 points (-105 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Cam Spencer Over 14.5 points (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Purdue vs. UConn betting odds
Purdue vs. UConn predictions, best bets for Monday
Purdue +7 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
It's rare to see the projection models disagree so strongly with the betting market for a matchup as high-profile as the national championship game. And yet, here we are in the hours before Monday's final with a screaming gap between the two.
UConn was dealing as short as -7.5 on Monday before the market settled around -6.5, though Caesars is still hanging Purdue +7 in the hours before tip-off. That comes as KenPom, T-Rank, Haslametrics, and other popular projection models have this matchup graded out as a one-possession game.
UConn surely deserves respect from bettors after winning 11 consecutive NCAA Tournament games by double digits, but are these teams really so different? Both feature singularly dominant big men with high-level shot makers around them and a defensive approach predicated on their anchors down low.
I like the Huskies to win this game outright, but seven points is too much for me to ignore on Monday's underdogs. And for those of you who waited, this is among the best prices we've seen all weekend on the Boilermakers.
Best odds: -115 via Caesars
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Donovan Clingan Under 13.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
As I highlighted in my expert picks for Monday's game, Clingan has been a dominant force in this tournament but remains an inconsistent option offensively. And I'm mighty skeptical of him finding success against Edey and Co.
The 7-foot-2 sophomore has done virtually all of his damage at the rim, where Edey (7-foot-4, 300 lbs) is an effective deterrent with his size and freakish reach. Clingan doesn't have enough range to draw Edey out of the paint or make him pay for dropping into the restricted area - and he isn't a primary scorer for UConn, anyway.
The odds for this wager have moved slightly toward the Under in the last couple days, but this is still a strong price for a prop dealing as short as -120 across the rest of our best sportsbooks.
Best odds: -105 via bet365
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Cam Spencer Over 14.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
While I generally favor Under bets for Monday's tournament final, this is one of my favorite Over plays for a player who has made his impact felt in his lone season with UConn.
Spencer is averaging a tick under this number across the entire season (14.4 PPG), and he's scored in double figures in all five tournament games thus far while hitting 43.5% of his 3-point attempts. That's a critical aspect of his game against a Purdue defense that doesn't foul or allow easy buckets inside.
Where Spencer could really do damage is in the mid-range game, as he profiles as one of college basketball's best shooters from that range and should have plenty of opportunities against the Boilermakers' drop coverage. In fact, I wouldn't be totally shocked if Spencer ends up leading this game in scoring (+1000 via FanDuel).
Best odds: +100 via BetMGM
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Purdue-UConn last-minute bets made Monday at 5 p.m. ET.
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- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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