🏀 Hawaii vs. Arkansas Prediction Today: March Madness Round 1 Odds & Picks

Straight off winning the SEC title, No. 4 Arkansas will have to fend off No. 13 Hawaii today in a March Madness First Round matchup. Arkansas is a 14.5-point betting favorite ahead of tipoff from Moda Center in Portland, Ore., at 4:25 p.m. ET (TBS).

My best March Madness predictions, including my Hawaii vs. Arkansas prediction today, expect the Rainbow Warriors to exceed expectations. Hawaii's unique defense should neutralize Arkansas' supporting cast and turn Darius Acuff Jr. into a one-man show. 

🏀 Hawaii vs. Arkansas picks & odds: March Madness First Round

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.82 units

🏆 Who will win Hawaii vs. Arkansas?

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Arkansas, somewhat surprisingly, is riding its first five-game winning streak of the season after capturing the SEC Tournament title. While it's viewed as the safest No. 4 seed to move on due to being the biggest favorite, this matchup could still be closer than expected - even if an upset doesn’t happen.

Score prediction: Arkansas 83, Hawaii 71

💰 Hawaii vs. Arkansas prediction & best bet

Hawaii +16.5 (-110)

Opponents typically meet with stern opposition of how to defend Darius Acuff Jr. and get the ball out of his hands. But I expect Hawaii’s unique no-help defense to frustrate John Calipari and the Razorbacks enough to let the Rainbow Warriors pull off a cover.

Hawaii’s defense ranks in the top 15 in the country in 3-point attempt rate, and the top three in assist rate. And not only are the Rainbow Warriors not allowing long range attempts, but its 3-point percentage defense ranks in the top 30 in the country.

🔥 Best Hawaii vs. Arkansas player prop bet

Darius Acuff Jr. Over 25.5 points (+100)

If Hawaii is going to stay true to its identity and not help off of Acuff, then John Calipari will have no choice but to give him a green light and attack at will.

Arkansas averages fewer than 13 assists per game in its losses. While I am not predicting an outright upset in this game, I do expect Acuff’s lack of need to distribute the basketball will result in a big scoring day.

Acuff’s O/U for assists is 6.5, juiced -130 to the Under (56.52% implied odds). In the last five games he has finished with six or fewer assists, he has scored 37, 17, 20, 49, and 28 points.

🚀 Hawaii vs. Arkansas same-game parlay

If Hawaii is going to increase its chances of covering the spread, it likely doesn't want to get involved in a track meet with Arkansas. Because of the Rainbow Warriors' no-help defense, it is entirely plausible that Darius Acuff Jr. goes off in this game, but they cover a game that stays under the projected total by limiting other Razorbacks.

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🤑 Hawaii vs. Arkansas betting splits today

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💡 How I'm betting Hawaii vs. Arkansas: March Madness strategy

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

All of my above three wagers are one-unit plays, but I will likely look into sprinkling smaller 0.25-unit plays while laddering Acuff Jr.'s points. Given that he has gone off for 28, 37, and 49 points within the last month alone, there is value on his +220 odds to score 30-plus and +575 odds to score at least 35 at bet365.

📊 Live Hawaii vs. Arkansas odds: March Madness First Round

Sharp money has already started to come in on the underdogs, driving the spread as low as +15 at Caesars and bet365. That is why I am pumped to have gotten alongside Hawaii at +16.5, as that number seems like it will never return before tipoff. 

The total has also come down across the market from an opening number of 161.5 to 160.5. With Hawaii's forte being its defense, I wouldn't be surprised to see an even lower total before tipoff with that being the narrative.

📈 Hawaii vs. Arkansas betting trends

📺 How to watch Hawaii vs. Arkansas: March Madness First Round

• Date: Thursday, March 19
• Tipoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
• Location: Moda Center (Portland, Ore.)
• TV: TBS
• Streaming: Max

🆚 March Madness first-round matchups & previews

Here is the first-round March Madness schedule, and our betting preview:

🏀 March Madness bracket previews: East | Midwest | West | South

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