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Clemson vs. Arizona Prediction, Expert Picks & Props: Backing Ballo in Sweet 16

Rob Paul

Last Updated: March 28, 2024 3:52 PM EDT • 3 min 54 sec read.

Caleb Love, Keshad Johnson, Oumar Ballo, and Jaden Bradley of the Arizona Wildcats look on as Pelle Larsson shoots free throws against the Dayton Flyers, and we offer our top Clemson vs. Arizona player props based on the best NCAAB odds.
Caleb Love, Keshad Johnson, Oumar Ballo, and Jaden Bradley of the Arizona Wildcats look on as Pelle Larsson shoots free throws against the Dayton Flyers. Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images via AFP.

The No. 6-seed Tigers look to pull off a big upset when they take on the second-seed Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament's Sweet 16, and we're offering our top Clemson vs. Arizona picks and best bets based on the best NCAAB odds.

Clemson (23-11), a sixth-seed, tries to keep its March Madness run alive when it takes on the No. 2-seed Arizona Wildcats (27-8) in Sweet 16 play on Thursday. The game is set to begin at 7:09 p.m. ET at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.

Arizona is a significant 7.5-point favorite across our best sports betting sites. That's expected when you consider that the Wildcats have been among the favorites by both the March Madness odds and Final Four odds since the tournament began.

Meanwhile, Clemson has overachieved to get to this point. It's the second-lowest seed to advance to the Sweet 16 and now faces an Arizona squad that owns a 15-point average margin of victory throughout the tournament.

To accompany our Sweet 16 expert picks and Sweet 16 player props and best bets, here are our best Clemson vs. Arizona picks and best bets (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Clemson vs. Arizona game info & odds

  • When: Thursday, March 28
  • Tip-off: 7:09 p.m. ET
  • Where: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, Calif.
  • How to watch: CBS

Clemson (6) vs. Arizona (2) best bets

Oumar Ballo Over 10.5 rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +102 via FanDuel

The Wildcats have been known all season for their explosive offense, with All-American Caleb Love leading the way. Arizona is third in the country in points per game (87.6) and ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. But what's made Tommy Lloyd's program such a force has been the pieces supporting Love, specifically big man Oumar Ballo.

The 7-foot senior has been a monster in the paint for the Wildcats. He's second on the team in points per game (12.9) and first in rebounds (10.0). Ballo can provide the most significant mismatch for Arizona against Clemson, with his size and length being an X-factor when pulling in boards. The Tigers are averaging just 36.4 rebounds per game this season and are 278th in the country in offensive rebounds per contest (9.1). 

Meanwhile, Ballo has been one of the best rebounders in the country down the stretch this season. His rebounds per game jumped up to 11 in Pac-12 play, and he's notched at least 12 in three of his last four outings. He pulled in 13 boards during the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

He did notch only three against Dayton during the second round, but that was tied to less playing time.

The Flyers' offense is predicated on floor spacing and 3-point shooting, which made Ballo less impactful. That won't be the case now against a Clemson offense that leans on its forwards.

The +102 odds at FanDuel lead to terrific value as well, with a $10 bet translating to a $10.20 profit. Meanwhile, the -105 odds at DraftKings imply a 51.22% probability he hits the Over, according to our odds calculator.

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Joseph Girard Over 2.5 made 3-pointers ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via bet365

While Arizona is known more for its offense, the team's defense also ranks among the top 10 in adjusted efficiency this season. It's been one of the best at limiting opportunities, especially inside the arc where it holds opponents to just 47.4% shooting. Clemson will likely need to lean on its guards to do some damage from deep.

For as good as Arizona's defense has been, it struggled to contain 3-point shooters during Pac-12 play. It faced more 3-point attempts than any team in Pac-12 games (23.4 per matchup) and allowed the third-most made 3-pointers per game (8.1) while teams shot 34.6% from deep. Clemson would be smart to go to guard Joseph Girard to take advantage of Arizona's issues.

Girard leads the Tigers in 3-point attempts (7.0) and 3-pointers made per game (2.9) while shooting 41.4% from behind the arc. The Syracuse transfer has been the perfect outside complement to star forward PJ Hall, and he's hit at least three 3-pointers in 19 of 34 games this season (55.8%).

With his line set at just 2.5 for this game, we'd happily take the -120 odds at DraftKings or the -122 odds at FanDuel. But we love the value from the -115 odds at bet365.

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Clemson vs. Arizona spread & Over/Under analysis

The Wildcats opened as a 7 to 7.5-point favorite at our best sports betting apps, and the line hasn't been moving much. With the Tigers being the second-lowest seed left, and Arizona one of just two programs ranked in the top 10 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, we wouldn't be surprised if this line moves another point in the Wildcats' direction. Arizona is 22-13 against the spread this season, and Clemson is 19-14-1.

Both of these offenses can score, which is why the game total opened as high as 152.5 and has seen little to no movement across our best sports betting sites. The Wildcats are just 16-19 to the Over this season despite their high-scoring offense. Their games have gone Under in five straight. Clemson has also been a good Under bet lately, hitting it in 12 of the team's last 17. 

Clemson-Arizona prediction made Tuesday at 10:15 a.m. ET.

Here are our best March Madness betting sites:

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Written By:
Rob Paul
A diehard Pittsburgh Steelers fan, Rob's passion for the NFL led him to the NFL Draft, which in turn sparked his love for collegiate sports. Growing up, he was particularly obsessed with the old Big East, MAC, and the Big Ten. That obsession led him to pursue a career in sports media, first as a local reporter, and now as a betting analyst. There's nothing Rob loves more than spending hours on the couch watching college football/basketball, NFL, NBA, or MLB, and hopefully hitting a few bets.