Cincinnati vs. Kansas Prediction, Pick & Odds: Big 12 Tournament Round 2
Our Cincinnati vs. Kansas prediction based on the best college basketball odds expects a low-scoring Big 12 Tournament game with the Jayhawks depleted by injury.
It's been a tumultuous year for the Kansas Jayhawks. After starting the season ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll, Bill Self's program stumbled to a 22-9 regular season finish and wasn't able to clinch a double bye in the Big 12 Tournament. Now it's an underdog across our best sports betting sites to an uneven Cincinnati Bearcats team in the conference tournament.
To rub salt in the wound of this "down year" for Kansas, in its regular-season finale loss to the No. 1 Houston Cougars, the Jayhawks lost their two best players to injury. Kansas will be without potential All-Americans Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar for the foreseeable future, which shook up its Big 12 Tournament odds.
As part of our college basketball conference tournament predictions, here is our best Cincinnati vs. Kansas prediction and our college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Don't miss Wednesday's college basketball player props and best bets for more action, including a pick on Kansas's K.J. Adams.
Cincinnati vs. Kansas prediction
Under 138.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -105 via FanDuel
Coming off a 46-point output against Houston, Kansas is now down its two leading scorers against Cincinnati. Dickinson and McCullar combined for 36.3 points per game this season and the impact of their loss goes beyond their scoring prowess.
Behind McCullar's ball handling and Dickinson's presence in the paint, the Jayhawks were putting up 73.4 points per game this season. Without them, this already stale offense is going to have a difficult time against Cincinnati.
It's not as if Kansas was playing up to its usual standard this season, ranking just 48th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. Subtract by far its two best scorers and Self may need to lean on his defense. While the Bearcats are just 19-13 this season, they're no walk in the park to play.
Cincinnati ranks 23rd in adjusted defensive efficiency and is blocking 4.5 shots per game in conference play, second most in the Big 12. With Aziz Bandaogo and Viktor Lakhin (who is questionable for the game) protecting the rim (a combined 2.5 blocks per game), the Jayhawks could be in trouble down low without Dickinson to generate offense. The two Bearcats' big men rank among the top 20 in DBPR in the Big 12, per EvanMiya.
With those two anchoring its defense, Cincinnati is allowing the lowest two-point percentage in Big 12 play this season (46.4%) and ranks second in defensive rebounds per game (19.9) - which is saying something with the Big 12 having six teams ranked in the top 23 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
One such team is Kansas, whose defense has held it together this season. It's 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows just 68.6 points per game. Teams have been hitting only 40.5% from the floor against Kansas and the Jayhawks are managing 7.4 steals per game.
Even down McCullar and Dickinson on the defensive end, Dajuan Harris and K.J. Adams can make a difference, with a combined 2.7 steals per game. It helps that Cincinnati has been mediocre on offense this season. The Bearcats are 10th in conference play with 69.6 points per game and shoot just 43.6% from the floor and 29.6% from three.
Wes Miller's squad has just one player averaging more than 11 points per game in Big 12 games this season. Neither of these teams will put a player on the court ranked in the top 25 of OBPR in the conference.
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Cincinnati vs. Kansas best odds
FanDuel (-105)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 139 | Under 138.5 | Under 138.5 | Under 138.5 | Under 138.5 |
| -110 | -105 | -110 | -115 | -110 |
There's some slight variation across our best sports betting apps with this game total. FanDuel has the best odds at -105 but are a half point under DraftKings' total. The -105 odds imply a probability of 51.22% that the Under will hit, according to our odds calculator.
We'd take the Under on this game down to 137.5. However, if we were to go that low, we wouldn't bet it with odds shorter than -108.
Cincinnati vs. Kansas odds
Cincinnati vs. Kansas odds analysis
After Cincinnati defeated West Virginia in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament, the Bearcats opened as a slight 1-point favorite against the Kansas Jayhawks. The line has since shifted further in Cincinnati's direction with our best sports betting sites all having the Bearcats -2.5.
Cincinnati is 16-16 ATS this season while Kansas is just 13-17-1. In the previous matchup between the two this season, Cincinnati covered the spread as an 8-point underdog.
With the Bearcats being a defense-first team and Kansas without its two leading scorers, the game total opened as low as 137. It's since come up to between 138 and 139 across our best March Madness betting sites. Cincinnati is 17-15 betting the Over this season and the Jayhawks are 14-16-1. The Under hit in the previous game between the two with the game total at 147.
Cincinnati vs. Kansas game info
- When: Wednesday, March 13 at 9:30 p.m. ET
- Where: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, Mo.
- How to watch: ESPN 2
Cincinnati-Kansas prediction made Wednesday at 10:20 a.m. ET.
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