Timberwolves vs. Lakers Predictions, Picks & Odds: Can Los Angeles Take Care of Business?

The No. 7 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs is up for grabs when the Minnesota Timberwolves travel to face the Los Angeles Lakers Tuesday night. Read on for our Timberwolves vs. Lakers play-in tournament prediction based on the best NBA odds.

The Los Angeles Lakers stormed their way back into relevance with a strong finish to the regular season, claiming the top seed in the play-in tournament. They now just need to defeat a depleted Minnesota Timberwolves squad in Los Angeles to earn the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs.

Minnesota big man Rudy Gobert will miss Tuesday’s clash while serving a suspension for punching his teammate, Kyle Anderson, during the regular-season finale. Jaden McDaniels, the team’s top defender, is also sidelined after fracturing his hand by punching the wall on the way to the locker room at halftime on Sunday.

As a result, the Timberwolves (42-40) are expected to be a three-possession underdog when they step into the ring against the Lakers (43-39) at Crypto.com Arena. But does that really matter in a do-or-die setting such as the NBA play-in tournament? 

Here is our best Timberwolves vs. Lakers prediction (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Timberwolves vs. Lakers prediction

Austin Reaves Over 19.5 points + assists (-122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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If you’ve been reading my NBA work the last week or so, you know that we’ve been attacking Austin Reaves-related player props for quite some time. You might think we’d back off after Reaves failed to come through for us on his points prop during the regular-season finale, but that’s what the best sportsbooks want us to do.

Reaves remains underrated in the betting market, as evidenced by this combo prop of 19.5 points and assists. He is averaging 20 points and 5.4 assists per game in April, clearing this mark in four of the five games so far this month.

Check out our Hawks vs. Heat prediction

To take it back even further, Reaves has recorded 20-plus points and assists in 80% of his last 10 games and 70% of his last 20 outings. He averaged 17.4 points and 5.7 dimes during March, as his role for the Lakers has only continued to get bigger down the stretch.

It has been well documented, but Reaves has been especially good at drawing fouls of late. He now faces a Timberwolves team that ranks 26th in defensive free throw rate, including 28th since the trade deadline, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Minnesota’s entire defensive philosophy should change with its shorthanded lineup. McDaniels likely would have guarded LeBron James, while Gobert would have defended Anthony Davis. Instead, Anderson will likely be tasked with the LeBron assignment for the bulk of this battle.

As a result, Lakers role players like Reaves should have more advantageous matchups. Given how Reaves ended the regular season, I expect him to come through for us and the Lakers by finishing with 20-plus points and assists with relative ease.

Timberwolves vs. Lakers best odds

FanDuel (-122)

Most of our best NBA betting sites are in agreement on where this line should be set, but FanDuel is offering the best bargain for this prop. While this is playable at -140 based on our projections, take advantage of the -122 offering on the Over at FanDuel.

For those looking to boost their odds, DraftKings Sportsbook has -130 odds on Reaves to finish with 20-plus points and assists in the same-game parlay tab. This means a two-leg parlay involving the Lakers' moneyline and the Over on this particular player prop has a juicy +115 payout.

We will be playing both the SGP and this straight bet to maximize our entertainment for this evening.

Timberwolves vs. Lakers odds

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.

Timberwolves vs. Lakers odds analysis

This line has moved in one direction since Los Angeles opened as a 5.5-point favorite. The Lakers are now laying up to 8.5 at the time of this writing, though this spread shows no signs of slowing down. We plan to play the Timberwolves at anything +9 or higher.

While the spread has featured plenty of movement, the total has been sitting between 232.5 and 233 since betting lines were released Sunday evening.

During the 2022-23 regular season, Minnesota is 40-42 against the spread and 43-38-1 to the Under. Los Angeles posted a 40-41-1 ATS clip with a 43-38-1 record on the Over.

Timberwolves vs. Lakers game info

• Date: Tuesday, April 11, 10 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
• Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA

Timberwolves-Lakers pick made 04/11/2022 at 12:55 p.m. ET.

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