🏀 NBA Championship Odds 2026: Why the Thunder are the Next Great Dynasty
The NBA is in the middle of an era of parity, with seven different teams claiming the NBA championship since the Golden State Warriors were the last back-to-back champs in 2016-17 and 2017-18.
However, with the Oklahoma City Thunder coming off their first title in franchise history last season and being the overwhelming favorites by the NBA championship odds, is OKC about to become the league's next great dynasty?
The Thunder have a 61% chance of repeating, according to our prediction market apps, and they're set up to dominate the NBA for the foreseeable future.
🏆 NBA championship odds: Thunder vs. the Field
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⛈️ 3 reasons the Thunder will repeat as champions (60% chance)
Historic efficiency levels
It's hard to justify backing any team other than the Thunder in the NBA playoffs this year. OKC led the league in BPI last year at 8.6 on its way to winning its first title ... its BPI this year is significantly higher at 11.4.
In the regular season, the Thunder led the NBA in net rating (+11.2) and defensive rating (107.7) while ranking in the top seven in offensive rating (118.9), true shooting percentage (59.9%), effective field-goal percentage (56.1%), turnover rate (11.2%), effective field-goal percentage allowed (51.9%), and forced turnover rate (14.6%).
The Thunder have a historically dominant defense and an offense led by last year's NBA MVP, and this year's presumed NBA MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. And even while playing without Jalen Williams, who's dealing with a hamstring injury, OKC has thrashed teams in the playoffs.
Oklahoma City swept the Phoenix Suns in the first round and beat the Los Angeles Lakers by 18 in Game 1 of their conference semifinals matchup. The Thunder are winning by an average margin of 17.4 points in the playoffs thus far.
Star power
Love him or hate him, SGA is set to win his second straight MVP after finishing No. 1 in the regular season in win shares (15.2), win shares per 48 minutes (.323), points per 36 minutes (33.7), and No. 2 in PPG (31.1), PER (30.8), and value over replacement player (7.8).
The Canadian is a force on his own, but it certainly helps that Chet Holmgren has developed into one of the best bigs in the NBA. The former No. 2 pick made the All-Star team for the first time this season and is among the best defenders in the league. In the regular season, he trailed only Victor Wembanyama, the NBA Defensive Player of the Year, in defensive win shares (4.7), defensive rating (104.2), and blocks per game (1.9).
Plus, when Williams is healthy, he's among the best No. 3 options in the league and was top 25 last year in value over replacement player (3.4) and win shares (7.8) while earning an All-Star nod and making second-team all-defense.
Roster continuity & depth
What makes Mark Daigneault's team such a strong candidate to be the NBA's next dynasty, though, is the continuity and depth on this roster. Sam Presti's ability to load up on draft capital and hit on players, thanks in large part to Daigneault's knack for developing them, has turned OKC into an impossibly deep team.
It's a combination of homegrown first-round picks like Holmgren, Williams, and Cason Wallace reaching their potential, and also developing second-round picks like Ajay Mitchell and Aaron Wiggins into key contributors. Plus, acquiring players like SGA, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Isaiah Joe through trades/free agency and getting the most out of them.
This team is a juggernaut, and its reign won't be ending anytime soon. They're the best team to back to win it all this year and next year.
🧩 The dynasty blueprint: Why OKC is poised to end the run of parity
Players under contract
Pretty much every relevant player that helped OKC put together a second straight season of pure dominance is set to be back for the 2026-27 season. All 12 players who played 18-plus minutes this season for the Thunder are under contract next season, with the team's big three of SGA, Holmgren, and Williams set to be together for at least five more years.
And thanks to his mountain of draft picks, Presti can replace ageing players and free agents with new blood in the coming years.
| Player (age) | Under contract until | 2025-26 stats (with Thunder) |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (28) | 2030-31 (player option for 2030-31) | 31.1 PPG, 6.6 APG, 4.3 RPG, 1.4 SPG |
| Chet Holmgren (24) | 2031-32 | 17.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 1.9 BPG |
| Jalen Williams (25) | 2031-32 | 17.1 PPG, 5.5 APG, 4.6 RPG, 1.2 SPG |
| Lu Dort (27) | 2027-28 (team option for 2026-27) | 8.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 0.9 SPG |
| Cason Wallace (23) | 2027-28 (RFA in 2027-28) | 8.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.9 SPG |
| Ajay Mitchell (24) | 2028-29 (team option for 2027-28) | 13.6 PPG, 3.6 APG, 3.3 RPG, 1.2 SPG |
| Isaiah Hartenstein (28) | 2027-28 (team option for 2026-27) | 9.2 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 3.5 APG |
| Aaron Wiggins (28) | 2029-30 (team option for 2028-29) | 9.4 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.7 APG |
| Isaiah Joe (27) | 2028-29 (team option for 2027-28) | 11.1 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.3 APG |
| Jaylin Williams (24) | 2028-29 (team option for 2027-28) | 7.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.4 APG |
| Alex Caruso (32) | 2028-29 | 6.2 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.3 SPG |
| Jared McCain (22) | 2028-29 (team option in 2027-28, RFA in 2028-29) | 10.4 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 0.9 APG |
Plethora of draft picks (2026-2029)
| Year | Expected number of Round 1 picks | Expected number of Round 2 picks |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Two | One |
| 2027 | Three | One |
| 2028 | One (can swap with Dallas Mavericks) | Three |
| 2029 | Two | Four |
The amount of draft capital that Presti has acquired is ridiculous. And with the 2026 NBA Draft expected to be one of the strongest in years, the Thunder are poised to add two players who could develop into key rotation pieces.
Through several trades and the ability to pick-swap, OKC is projected to have the Los Angeles Clippers' and Philadelphia 76ers' first-round picks this year. That will give them two picks in the top 20; Tankathon projects them to be picks No. 12 and No. 18.
Based on the 2026 NBA Draft consensus big board, that could mean landing two instant contributors such as Michigan's Yaxel Lendeborg or Aday Mara, Alabama's Labaron Philon Jr., Washington's Hannes Steinbach, Iowa's Bennett Stirtz, or Arizona's Koa Peat.
It's almost unfair how set up the Thunder are to be the NBA's next great dynasty. So buy stock now.
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