🏀 NBA Player Props Today: NBA Playoffs Best Bets & Picks for Thursday, May 7
📡 SBR Edge: LeBron Goes Over Again
My NBA player props today feature LeBron James Over 20.5 points (-125), as he has scored 25+ in five of his last six games. My second NBA best bet is Donovan Mitchell Under 25.5 points (-114). He has scored 24 or fewer points in six straight outings. I wrap up my top picks with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 29.5 points (-112), as the Lakers are double-teaming him after he takes his first dribble.
🏀 Best NBA player props today: May 7
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | 💡 Best odds | ⚖️ Bet size | 🧠 Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James Over 20.5 points | -125 via FanDuel | 1.25u -> 1u | Has scored 25+ points in 5 of his last 6 games |
| Donovan Mitchell Under 25.5 points | -114 via DraftKings | 1.14u -> 1u | Has scored 24 or fewer points in 6 straight games |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 29.5 points | -112 via DraftKings | 1.12u -> 1u | Lakers are double-teaming him after 1 dribble |
Total wagered: 3.51 units | Max profit: 3 units
💰 Best NBA player prop bet tonight
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
LeBron James Over 20.5 points (-125) at Thunder
I’m not sure why the market has been so slow to react to James becoming more aggressive. James has scored 25+ points in five of the Lakers’ last six games, including 27 on Tuesday.
During the regular season, James was more willing to settle into a distributor role alongside Austin Reaves and without Luka Doncic, but the current game plan is obvious: get James into rhythm early. That approach was clear in Game 1, when he scored 12 first-quarter points.
FanDuel lists James Over 20.5 at -125, but I'd play this up to -145 on the best sports betting sites.
🔥 More NBA player prop picks
The Cavaliers have the fifth-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.
Donovan Mitchell Under 25.5 points (-114) at Pistons
I feel like this number is still being anchored too heavily to Mitchell’s regular-season production. His style of play just hasn’t translated into playoff success this year.
With officials allowing more contact, Mitchell has been held to 24 points or fewer in six straight games. I don’t expect his recent criticism of referees to earn him any more favorable whistles today. Mitchell Under 25.5 points is -114 at DraftKings, but I would play this up to -135 on the best NBA betting sites.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 29.5 points (-112) vs. Lakers
My biggest takeaway from L.A.'s defensive game plan in Game 1 was how clearly they were committed to not letting Gilgeous-Alexander operate comfortably. They were sending a double team any time he put the ball on the floor.
Whether that approach ultimately paid off in a broader sense - Chet Holmgren stepped up offensively in response - it did hold Gilgeous-Alexander under 20 points for the first time this season. I expect more of the same today. His Under 29.5 points is -112 at DraftKings, but I'd be comfortable playing this up to -130 on the best sports betting apps.
🚀 Best NBA parlay picks today
There's a large enough edge on Mitchell Under 24.5 points that you can combine it with a negatively correlated bet (Cavaliers +3.5) and there will still be value. Bet365 offers this parlay at +360, while FanDuel lists it at just +318.
💵 Best NBA parlay bet today
- Cavaliers +3.5
- Donovan Mitchell Under 24.5 points
Best odds: +360 via bet365 (0.28u -> 1u)
💵 My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 172-183-4 | -5.71 units ❌ | -1.6% ❌ |
| Player props | 149-128-4 | -7.88 units ❌ | -2.4% ❌ |
| Parlays | 19-50 | +3.06 units ✅ | 14.5% ✅ |
| Spreads | 2-3 | -0.8 units ❌ | -13.1% ❌ |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units ❌ | -4.1% ❌ |
My betting record in the NBA postseason
Tracked since April 14.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 64-57 | +11.33 units ✅ | 12.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 50-29 | +11.65 units ✅ | 15.4% ✅ |
| Parlays | 11-23 | +2.07 units ✅ | 21.1% ✅ |
| Spreads | 1-3 | -2.3 units ❌ | -52.5% ❌ |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units ❌ | -4.1% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting NBA player props today
We’re handicapping Game 2s in the conference semifinals, which means what’s most important is how the players were used in their Game 1s. The next most important data we’re using is how players performed at the end of the first round. The beginning of the first round isn’t as relevant because coaches’ game plans change throughout a series, which is likely to happen when these matchups shift locations for Game 3.
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