🩸 Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland Prediction, Picks & Odds: Expect a Slow Burn, Not a Blowout

Our Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland prediction has the champion retaining his title in this UFC 328 betting preview, just not as fast as the -560 price tag implies. Chimaev is a massive betting favorite at FanDuel, and we agree he wins. But forget the early finishes that made his reputation. This looks like a five-round grind.

UFC 328 takes place Saturday, May 9, at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, with the main card streaming live on Paramount+ at 9:00 p.m. ET. We're backing Chimaev to win, but our strongest play is the over 2.5 rounds at -106. Strickland is too tough and too defensively polished to get blown out early.

🩸 Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland predictions: UFC 328

See all of our UFC picks for this weekend's fights; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Total wagered: 5.5 units | Max profit: 3.70 units

💰 Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-106)

Chimaev carried a reputation as an early finisher into his first title fight, but the Dricus du Plessis bout told a different story. He controlled that fight on the mat for five rounds without chasing a stoppage. Expect the same approach here.

Strickland has been stopped just once in his entire UFC career - by Alex Pereira's left hook at UFC 276 - and Chimaev does not possess that kind of knockout power on the feet. Strickland's defensive wrestling and cardio should keep him competitive long enough to push this fight past the halfway mark, even if Chimaev ultimately wins.

🆚 Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland fight preview

Check our best UFC betting sites for the latest UFC 328 odds for this fight.

Can Strickland pressure Chimaev backward and keep the fight standing? Probably not. Chimaev has taken down every opponent he has ever faced, and his ability to chain wrestling attempts together makes him nearly impossible to keep off you for 25 minutes. Strickland will need to borrow from the du Plessis playbook and stay active off his back, but the South African's approach failed miserably — and Strickland is a worse grappler.

Expect hesitation on the feet from both sides. Strickland is a defensive-first striker who leans on his Philly Shell guard and forward pressure, while Chimaev is a reluctant puncher who prefers to use striking as a setup for his takedowns. Neither man will force a firefight. The early rounds should feel cautious, with Chimaev working level changes and Strickland trying to smother that offense with cage positioning. The later rounds could get more decisive as Strickland tires on bottom.

Prediction: Chimaev to win (-560 via FanDuel)

💡 How I'm handicapping Chimaev vs. Strickland

The key to this fight from a betting perspective is shifting your units away from the moneyline and toward rounds and outcome plays. Laying -560 on Chimaev straight up offers terrible return on investment. You are better served loading up on the over 2.5 rounds, which is where the real value lives on this card.

From there, take a smaller speculative shot on Chimaev by decision at +320. The champion showed against du Plessis that he is comfortable winning a grinding unanimous decision without ever threatening a finish. A half-unit play captures that upside without overexposing your bankroll.

I’m investing less here compared to a typical UFC pay-per-view title fight. The value is thin at the top of this card. Chimaev should win, but the massive favorite price eats into your margins. I would rather dial up units on the rounds play and take smaller shots on the outcomes than try to bankroll a -560 moneyline.

📊 Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland odds

Odds via FanDuel; subject to change.

⚖️ Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland tale of the tape

📺 How to watch Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland: UFC 328

• Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026
• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET (main card)
• Location: Prudential Center (Newark, New Jersey)
• TV: Paramount+