Best NBA Parlays Today: Picks, Predictions for Friday's Games

Jon Metler analyzes the NBA player prop market and builds a same-game parlay for plus-money odds.

Jon Metler

Last Updated: May 5, 2023 5:46 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Is it possible for the Phoenix Suns to win Game 3 and turn their Western Conference semifinal matchup against the Denver Nuggets into a competitive series? Jon Metler shares his favorite NBA same-game parlay for Friday's games using the latest NBA odds.

The absence of Chris Paul in Game 3 will impact several NBA player prop markets for players such as Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton, and our best NBA betting sites will have to adjust their pricing accordingly. We're here to capitalize on those adjustments and it seems like we've stumbled upon some errors that could work in our favor.

There's also a player prop mentioned in this same-game parlay article that's not even part of the same-game parlay bet, but I want to bring it to your attention.

Here are our NBA SGP picks for Friday (odds via FanDuel).

Friday's NBA SGP picks

Game	Props	Combined Odds
Nuggets-Suns	Booker Under 7.5 assists, Ayton Over 16.5 points, Gordon Over 14.5 points	+680

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Nuggets vs. Suns odds

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NBA SGP predictions: Nuggets vs. Suns

Devin Booker Under 7.5 assists vs. Nuggets (+104)

Yes, Chris Paul will miss Game 3 for the Phoenix Suns, but I believe that the narrative surrounding Booker's assist prop for Friday's game has been taken too far. A total of 7.5 assists with the Over juiced to -132 is a high price for Booker, even with Paul out.

Based on Booker's projection of 7.1 assists against the Nuggets, we can price the Under at -135. The Under is trading at plus money, but I anticipate it will be priced at minus money across all our best NBA betting sites by tipoff.

Deandre Ayton Over 16.5 points vs. Nuggets (+100)

In our NBA best bets, I used Ayton Over 15.5 points -115 via bet365, and while this is the best price if you're looking for a straight bet, we will have to approach this prop differently at FanDuel for our same-game parlay. The Over 15.5 points is trading at -128 at FanDuel, which is a much different price point than -115.

With our projection of Ayton scoring 18.2 points, playing the Over 15.5 at -128 only offers an expected value of 11%, but we can increase our edge to 14% by taking on the Over 16.5 points at +100. With this projection of 18.2 points, we can price Ayton at -133 to score more than 16.5 points.

Shane Jackson is also backing Ayton to go Over his points prop, as explained in our Nuggets vs. Suns preview for Game 3.

Aaron Gordon Over 14.5 points vs. Suns (-115)

While I like this prop on Gordon, there's another prop on Gordon that I like a lot more, but unfortunately, it's not available at FanDuel. You can get Gordon Over 2.5 assists at +195 via bet365, and I have priced that prop at -105. If you find Gordon Over 2.5 assists at the same sportsbook where you place this same-game parlay, I recommend going for that prop instead of this one, as it will significantly increase the odds on your same-game parlay.

Gordon is projected to score 15.9 points on Friday, so we can price the Over 14.5 points at -125. Betting on Gordon to go Over his points prop is a solid bet, but you can see that the edge is much smaller than what we have on Gordon's assist prop. The assist prop shows an expected value of 51%, while the points prop is only 4%.

Also, in case it's not obvious, place a straight bet on the assist prop as well.

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.

NBA player prop picks made 05/05/2023 at 1:00 p.m. ET.

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Written by:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.