Best NBA Parlays Today: Picks, Predictions for Friday's Games

Jon Metler analyzes the NBA player prop market and builds a same-game parlay for plus money odds.

Jon Metler

Last Updated: May 12, 2023 12:21 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Can the Golden State Warriors manage to push their series against the Los Angeles Lakers to Game 7 with Klay Thompson leading the way? Jon Metler shares his favorite NBA same-game parlay for Friday's contests using the latest NBA odds.

Don't talk about it, be about it!

I need Klay Thompson to back up his words with action on Friday night to cash our NBA same-game parlay. The guard said he waited 12 years to play the Lakers in the playoffs, so Thompson needs to start shooting like it if he wants to face them in a Game 7.

Here are our NBA SGP picks for Friday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).

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Friday's NBA SGP picks

Game	Props	Combined Odds
Warriors-Lakers	Schroder Over 10.5 points, James Over 5.5 assists, Thompson Over 21.5 points	+513

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Warriors vs. Lakers odds

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NBA SGP predictions: Warriors vs. Lakers

Dennis Schroder Over 10.5 points vs. Warriors (-106)

This prop for Friday's action is one of my favorites, and I also placed a straight bet through FanDuel on Schroder to score more than 10.5 points. You can find the full breakdown of why I made this bet in our NBA best bets.

Schroder has quietly been a tough matchup for the Warriors' guards, and we're getting a great price on this prop for Friday's game. Schroder is expected to score 11.6 points against the Warriors based on projections, which allows us to price the Over on 10.5 points at -120.

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LeBron James Over 5.5 assists vs. Warriors (-130)

Betting on LeBron James to exceed his assist total has been showing value consistently throughout this series against the Warriors. I'm returning for more, despite the bet leaving us with a red X the last time we used it in a same-game parlay.

James is projected to drop 6.4 assists on Friday against the Warriors, allowing us to price the Over on 5.5 assists at -150. This bet comes with a positive expected value of 6% based on the projection.

The Lakers have attempted to limit James' use as a point guard to reduce the strain on his body. However, that strategy may be thrown out the window in Game 6 at home with the opportunity to eliminate the defending NBA champions. It wouldn't surprise me to see James playing the point at various times during Friday's game.

Klay Thompson Over 21.5 points vs. Lakers (-113)

I always use projections when it comes to my player props. But I'm not going to lie to you here: There are no projections telling us to play the Over on Thompson's points. The projections indicate this prop is priced pretty accurately. However, what we do have is steam, and a lot of it.

Sometimes you need to look at your projections and acknowledge your numbers might be slightly off, and the market is trying to tell me that's the case with Thompson. He opened at 20.5 points through several of our best sports betting apps, and the veteran is now up to 21.5 points. Not only has he jumped to 21.5 points, but the juice on his Over has climbed all the way to -133 through Pinnacle. Yet we're able to grab Thompson at -113 via FanDuel.

I'm following the steam here with Thompson. You can't talk all this smack about waiting 12 years to play the Lakers in the playoffs and then score sub-15 points for three straight games.

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NBA player prop picks made 05/12/2023 at 10:30 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.