NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Wednesday

Check out our NBA player props and best bets for Wednesday's schedule based on the best odds.

Jon Metler

Last updated: May 17, 2023 6:22 PM EDT • 5 min read

Will Jimmy Butler be able to fulfill his promise and eliminate the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals? Sportsbook Review betting analyst Jon Metler shares his top NBA player props and best bets for Wednesday's Heat vs. Celtics Game 1 using the best NBA odds.

The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics will begin the Eastern Conference Finals on Wednesday, marking a rematch of last season's Eastern Conference Finals, where the Celtics emerged victorious in seven games.

A popular Over bet from the Celtics' first round of the NBA Playoffs seems to have lost some of its appeal recently. However, I believe this presents a perfect opportunity to capitalize on a certain player, who is prominently featured in our NBA best bets for Wednesday.

Here are our top NBA player props and best bets for Wednesday (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Wednesday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics (-8)

Wednesday’s NBA best bets

Player prop: Derrick White Over 7.5 points vs. Heat (-125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Bam Adebayo Over 2.5 assists vs. Celtics (-122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Wednesday’s NBA player prop picks

Player prop: Derrick White Over 7.5 points vs. Heat (-125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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There's no doubt that Derrick White fell out of the rotation a bit in the final two games of the Celtics' series against the Philadelphia 76ers, playing only 19 and 12 minutes. That has been accounted for in his total for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

White's average betting line for his point total was 14.5 or 15.5 throughout the Atlanta Hawks series, but now it has dropped all the way down to 7.5 points.

The Celtics have already announced that they will stick with Robert Williams as a starter at center. This raises the question of why they would leak this strategy and give the Heat plenty of time to prepare for it. Personally, I believe it could be a little bit of a smokescreen, and White will end up playing more minutes than anticipated.

According to projections, White is expected to score 9.4 points on Wednesday against the Heat, and this is a conservative estimate. You may find other projections that are even higher. We can set the price for White to score more than 7.5 points against the Heat at -165 based on this projection.

Unfortunately, not many of our best sports betting apps have a points prop posted on White. You will have to shop around at either DraftKings or BetMGM, where he's currently trading at -125 at both shops. Pinnacle has the Over 7.5 points trading at -146 for White, which further supports our projection and aligns with where we believe this price is headed.

Meanwhile, our Shane Jackson has his eyes on a Gabe Vincent player prop in his Heat vs. Celtics predictions.

White bet made 5/17/2023 at 5:30 a.m. ET.

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.

Player prop: Bam Adebayo Over 2.5 assists vs. Celtics (-122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Don't let anyone tell you the price of a bet isn't the most important factor in betting. I waited all morning to place this wager, knowing I wanted to bet on Adebayo Over 2.5 assists because our projections give us an advantage. I sat hoping for what I believed would be an even better price while analyzing the market across our best sports betting apps, and I finally found one through FanDuel.

Most of our best NBA betting sites have been consistently offering Adebayo at -130 to go Over the total of 2.5 assists. It seemed like FanDuel and PointsBet might give us a chance to save a few cents and increase our edge, and we finally found it at FanDuel. If you can't get the -122 at FanDuel when placing this bet, consider looking at PointsBet, as that book has been hovering around -125.

Our projections show that Adebayo is expected to record 3.4 assists against the Celtics on Wednesday, which allows us to price this prop at -180. This bet then leads to a positive expected value of 17% based on our forecast. If we settled for -130 at a different sportsbook, our expected value would drop to 14%. The additional 3% in expected value is why you spend your days monitoring the market and enjoying some music.

Bam Adebayo bet made 5/17/2023 at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

FanDuel: $1,000 No Sweat First Bet | Read our FanDuel Review
Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review

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Written By:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.